Updraft: November 13, 2012 Archive

Milder days ahead; White Thanksgiving? Rain or snow looming?

Posted at 9:07 AM on November 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner

19F low temp at MSP Airport this morning

8 months since we've been that cold in the metro (15F on march 9th)

12F in Lakeville this morning!

40F high in the metro later today

Sunny start but clouds increase later today

Light rain or snow showers again this evening and tonight

50s return this weekend

Thanksgiving week rain or snow possible - models differ at this point

Zoned for destruction? Why "adapting" coasts to climate change will be tough

Milder days ahead:

We've earned this.

After a nightmare Monday AM commute and the coldest temp in 8 months this morning, a much appreciated warm up slowly kicks in this afternoon.

The low of 19F at MSP Airport this morning was the coldest temp recorded there since March 9th when the mercury dipped to 15F.

Image: Universty of Utah MesoWest

Notoriously cold Lakeville plunged to 12F this morning. Why is Lakeville so cold? The city and airport sits in a low spot south of the metro, and denser, colder air likes to run downhill at night and collect in the low country in and around Lakeville.

Sunshine and southerly winds will help temps make a run at 40F later today.

Light rain & snow showers return tonight:

A warm front pushes east into Minnesota tonight, and with it the next shot of light rain or snow. Temps should hover at or above freezing this evening, so I don't think we'll see the same widespread icy road issues we saw Monday AM...but there may be some slick spots between St. Cloud, the Twin Cities and Duluth between 7pm and midnight tonight.

Milder days ahead:

Temps will bounce around in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of this week, and 50s should return by this weekend.

The average high in the metro by Thursday? 41 degrees.

Thanksgiving week rain or snow chance looms:

Next week's models are "divergent" on solutions regarding the potential for rain or snow leading up to and including Thanksgiving.

The GFS is naggingly hinting at a low pressure system spinning up in the Midwest next Wednesday. The past few model runs have varied between a shot of soaking rain and the potential for some heavier wet snow by later Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day.

The latest GFS runs suggest a deepening low near Tomah, Wisconsin by late Wednesday night. If enough cold air works into the system, that's a sweet spot for significant snow near the metro and in eastern Minnesota.

It's too early to say...but stay tuned.

Another Nor'easter on the way for storm ravaged NY & NJ?

Talk about adding insult to injury.

The models are hinting at the potential for yet another Nor'easter for storm ravaged areas along the NJ & NY coastline by Sunday & Monday.

This one looks warm enough for mostly rain vs. the shot of snow they endured last week, but more rain, wind and pounding surf will not be welcome news to thousands still without power & shelter.

It's a reminder that hurricanes are not over when the storm clouds leave. It takes months for people to rebuild housing, power and other infrastructure.

I'm grateful we live in an area where such widespread devastating natural disasters are far less likely.

Zoned for Destruction?

Images: USGS

For decades now, some visionary climate and weather watchers have warned that our coastlines are increasingly vulnerable to widespread damage from hurricanes.

Throw in sea level rises form climate change, and you've got a recipe for long term disaster for insurance industry, coastal cities and 60% of the U.S. population that lives in "coastal counties."

Could climate change drive an exodus from the coast to "safer" inland locations?

HuffPosts' Tom Zeller expands:

That's understandable, but probably not sustainable, at least not as coastal development is currently conceived. After all, the historic storm and ocean surge that ripped through the Mid-Atlantic corridor late last month did so with a ferocity that washed away coastal communities, rendered tens of thousands of people homeless and left a multibillion-dollar mess from Montauk to lower Manhattan to Margate, N.J. And of course, many scientists have speculated that muscular storms like this one could become more common in coming decades, making our coastal communities -- including most of the nation's major urban areas -- increasingly vulnerable.

So what to do? One long-term, if fantastical, option suggested by a colleague might be an era of coastal flight, with populations reversing a century-long trend of migration toward the coasts and establishing new centers of commerce and culture on higher, less vulnerable ground inland. To be sure, such a scenario would be complicated by a variety of factors, including the likelihood that many parts of the country will be dealing with heat waves, droughts and other climate-related stressors of their own -- though if there is a sweet spot to be found, there could be some financial incentive in finding it.

PH