Updraft: November 6, 2012 Archive

Looking for a ray of sunshine; warmup ahead

Posted at 3:54 PM on November 6, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Severe weather, Thunderstorms

After a late night douse of precipitation, we had hope of a mainly dry day in eastern Minnesota. An optimist might have seen a glimpse of sunshine late this morning. The passage of a cool front swung the winds to the northwest and excited the breeze to gust at 30 mph at times in western Minnesota.

This is what the cloud cover looked like from the eye in the sky this afternoon. A picture that is getting all too familiar.

NOAA visible image from late afternoon. Looks very similar to yesterday's snapshot.

Here's a few looking up into the steely sky from Eden Prairie.

Source: Craig Edwards

There was sufficient instability in the invasion of cooler air to develop more rain showers, mixed with a couple of snowflakes, this afternoon.

Radar image from 345 p.m. CST. Source: NWS/Weather underground

Clouds persist overnight. Early morning temperatures will be seasonal. Not much exciting is in store on the weather scene for Wednesday and Thursday in the upper Midwest.

Attention will be focused on the potential wind and rain storm aimed at the devastated region in the northeast U.S.

The National Weather Service from New York City posted this High Wind Warning for Wednesday.

HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...COASTAL
CONNECTICUT...HUDSON COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Rainfall may accumulate one to three inches from New York City to Boston Wednesday through Thursday.

Closer to home, we are still projecting a major warmup on Saturday. Highs will climb into the lower 60s in southern Minnesota as a storm system takes shape in Nebraska on Friday and races into Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

GFS model valid at 6 p.m. CST Saturday. Temperature and winds at the surface. Source:NOAA/College of Dupage

Given the dynamics of this strengthening storm, there is a potential for strong to severe storms Saturday into Saturday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined this region with the highest threat for strong storms on Saturday. This is a day five outlook. That's why the shaded area says D5 rather than slight risk.

Temperatures take a major plunge on Sunday.

Craig Edwards