Updraft: November 5, 2012 Archive

Light rain overnight, mixed with snow northeast Minnesota; mostly dry Election Day

Posted at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2012 by Craig Edwards

A weak weather system will spin up some precipitation and carry it across Minnesota and into Wisconsin tonight. A tenth of an inch of moisture might be captured in some rain gauges by daybreak. Snow accumulations in far northeast Minnesota are expected to be two inches or less.

A large portion of the Minnesota landscape has not seen much sun the last couple of days. The weather sure has the trademark of early November, with a dull overcast.

NOAA visible satellite image 245 p.m. CST.

By sunrise on Tuesday the back edge of the precipitation should be on the brink of clearing the Twin Cities.

Rapid Update Cycle model data 6 a.m. CST Tuesday
Source: NOAA/College of Dupage

A bit of a breeze kicks in over the much of the state on Tuesday, with some gusts to 30 mph in the wind-favored areas of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal.

Misery does not like company, especially if you are trying to recover from a major disaster.

A storm with no name develops off the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday and churns up the Atlantic seaboard. The center of the strengthening system should take aim at Long Island on Wednesday night. At this time there are some differences in the track of the low center. The European model projects this surface forecast on Thursday morning.

European Model 7 a.m. EST Thursday morning. Source: NOAA/College of Dupage
Rain and wind are likely to lash some of the areas hardest hit by Super Storm Sandy. Colder air being drawn into the storm's core may result in some snow accumulations in upstate New York.

We'll be tracking our own big weather maker as the week moves along. A low pressure center is forecast to develop in Nebraska on Friday and track into Minnesota on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday may soar well into the 60s in southern Minnesota. There could be sufficient instability to trigger thunderstorms.

Surface pressure pattern and temperatures noon CST on Saturday GFS model. Source: NOAA/College of Dupage

Paul wrote a great assessment of the factors that contribute to making a long-range outlook. I can't come close to claiming I know much about seasonal outlooks other than decades of experience.

Just perhaps, we might be due for the winter that many were predicting last year. It could be quite a roller coaster ride. And the ride may begin sooner rather than later.

Craig Edwards