If you were writing a letter this weekend you would not have had much to share with regard to Minnesotan's favorite subject. Overall the weather was pretty drab.
There was some rainfall in southwest Minnesota yesterday, mainly southwest of the Minnesota River. Sioux Falls tallied a little more than a tenth of an inch. The amount of moisture in the Twin Cities metro was barely enough to measure.
Tonight brings a good chance for a mixture of rain and snow across central and northern Minnesota. Most of the precipitation is expected to fall from midnight to daybreak.
Breezy for Election Day
Brisk northwest winds will sweep into the western Minnesota Tuesday morning. Election day weather should be mostly dry but breezy, with temperatures on the chilly side.
The bigger weather story we will be monitoring this week is the development of another strong low pressure system off the east coast on Wednesday. The models are strengthening this storm center as it skirts the seaboard Wednesday night and Thursday. Wind-whipped rain is likely in the hardest hit areas of New York from last week's hurricane.
This five day precipitation potential was posted by NOAA's Prediction Center on Sunday afternoon:
The forces of nature look to jet friskily toward the weekend in the central U.S. We'll be tracking the birth of a storm center on Friday and the impact it might have on the upper Midwest on the weekend. For now, it appears that there will be a surge of much warmer air from Iowa into southern Minnesota to induce thunderstorms on Saturday. More on this as the week progresses.
Posted at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2012
by Craig Edwards
A weak weather system will spin up some precipitation and carry it across Minnesota and into Wisconsin tonight. A tenth of an inch of moisture might be captured in some rain gauges by daybreak. Snow accumulations in far northeast Minnesota are expected to be two inches or less.
A large portion of the Minnesota landscape has not seen much sun the last couple of days. The weather sure has the trademark of early November, with a dull overcast.
By sunrise on Tuesday the back edge of the precipitation should be on the brink of clearing the Twin Cities.
A bit of a breeze kicks in over the much of the state on Tuesday, with some gusts to 30 mph in the wind-favored areas of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal.
Misery does not like company, especially if you are trying to recover from a major disaster.
A storm with no name develops off the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday and churns up the Atlantic seaboard. The center of the strengthening system should take aim at Long Island on Wednesday night. At this time there are some differences in the track of the low center. The European model projects this surface forecast on Thursday morning.
European Model 7 a.m. EST Thursday morning. Source: NOAA/College of Dupage
Rain and wind are likely to lash some of the areas hardest hit by Super Storm Sandy. Colder air being drawn into the storm's core may result in some snow accumulations in upstate New York.
We'll be tracking our own big weather maker as the week moves along. A low pressure center is forecast to develop in Nebraska on Friday and track into Minnesota on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday may soar well into the 60s in southern Minnesota. There could be sufficient instability to trigger thunderstorms.
Surface pressure pattern and temperatures noon CST on Saturday GFS model. Source: NOAA/College of Dupage
Paul wrote a great assessment of the factors that contribute to making a long-range outlook. I can't come close to claiming I know much about seasonal outlooks other than decades of experience.
Just perhaps, we might be due for the winter that many were predicting last year. It could be quite a roller coaster ride. And the ride may begin sooner rather than later.