Posted at 5:20 PM on October 22, 2012
by Paul Huttner
AM showers & possible thunder today
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
70s likely Tuesday PM for southern Minnesota including the metro
Last 70? Tuesday will likely be the last shot at 70F for 2013
.50" to 1" rainfall possible Thursday...looking better for some meaningful rain
64F High temp Monday at MSP Airport
+9F vs. average for October 22nd
How to fix a weather satellite in orbit NOAA fixes GOES 13 - details below
Tuesday warm front: Season's last 70F?
I know...it's hard to imagine.
But if you consider we hit 70F on March 14th (73F) for the 1st time in 2012...with 70 again likely on October 23rd it's hard to mourn the potential loss of 70s until spring 2013 too much.
At 224 days, this may be the longest stretch of 70 to 70 degree warmth in the metro on record. 7+ months of 70 degree warmth in Minnesota? That's pretty crazy...and feels more like Kansas City or St. Louis.
Rare & "meaningful" rain on the way?
It's nice to see multiple forecast models agreeing on a potential rainmaker for rain starved Minnesota.
After months of drought, gun-shy meteorologists are just waiting for the next potential storm to evaporate and vanish from the weather maps.
This one still looks pretty good.
Monday's low pressure wave dumped significant rainfall across Iowa and Wisconsin.
Wave #2 arrives Wednesday and Thursday, and should deliver widespread rain.
The GFS & NAM are cranking out as much as 1" of rainfall potential for the Twin Cities and much of central Minnesota by Thursday evening.
That would be a blessing in this drought plagued year we call 2012.
Big League cold front Thursday:
As the rain falls Thursday, so will temperatures.
Temps should fall through the 40s, and this weekend looks shockingly cold after 70s in recent days.
Saturday looks like the coldest of the bunch with lows in the 20s and highs struggling to reach the upper 30s.
Sunday night surprise?
Okay, it technically wouldn't be a surprise if I'm taking about it the previous Monday. But it still might be a shock to the system.
The GFS is hinting at the potential for accumulating s...s...sn-ow Sunday night into Monday morning in southern Minnesota...and possibly the metro.
It's way early to be confident, and the GFS is notoriously error prone that far out. But the overall pattern I see does suggest the air will be cold enough for snow, and if an upper air disturbance passes overhead...it may not be farfetched.
Could the metro see our 1st inch of snow by next Monday October 29th?
NOAA fixes GOES 13 "on the fly"
"Lock on the tractor beam Scotty"
This would be cool science fiction if it wasn't real.
Adjustments are made to orbiting satellites all the time, but it's pretty cool o\how NOAA and engineers from Boeing & ITT fixed "GOES East" as it hovered 22,300 miles up.
It should be up and running again Thursday.
Details from NOAA:
The GOES-13 spacecraft, which had its sounder and imager instruments taken out of service because of technical trouble in late September, will return to full operations on Thursday as NOAA's GOES East satellite, NOAA officials said today.
The trouble stemmed from a motor vibration, which caused a lubricant buildup that obstructed the spinning motion of the filter wheel in the sounder. A team of engineers from NOAA, Boeing and ITT suppressed the vibration, the filter wheel restarted and is running smoothly, with improved performance.
NOAA turned off the two instruments on September 23, and immediately configured GOES-15, the West Coast satellite, to provide additional coverage of the eastern United States and part of the Atlantic Ocean. Within a few hours, NOAA activated its on-orbit spare satellite, GOES-14, for full service.
And as a team of engineers from NOAA, Boeing and ITT continued to pinpoint the cause of the problem, NOAA began moving GOES-14 towards the position where GOES-13 was situated. GOES-14 will return to its earlier status as the on-orbit spare, NOAA officials said.
A stretch of 224 days between the first 70 and last 70 is unusual, but not nearly a record. The record since 1900 is 240 days in 2000. Other years of note are 1999 (228 days), 1938 (226 days), and 1966 (224 days). The shortest stretch was 1995 (155 days). Of course, a 70 after November 8 is not out of the question this year.