Splash & dash; AM boomers & downpours; 70 PM? East Coast hurrricane threat?

Posted at 8:44 AM on October 23, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Loud & close - strong T-Storms favored western & north metro this morning

Thunder & heavy downpours - standing water in the north metro near Anoka & Champlain

.46" rainfall in Deephaven this morning in west metro

.50" to 1.5"+ doppler storm total estimations from Maple Grove into Anoka County

Near 70 today last shot at 70 today and possibly tomorrow

Hurricane threat or hype? Wide range of solutions on potential for east coast hurricane early next week

Flashing & splashing:

That was loud! And bright.

Our early AM raucous T-Storm cluster woke many of us out of a deep sleep and dropped some welcome rainfall that favored the western & northern metro, Little Falls & Mille Lacs.

The heavier rains were localized, but impressive. Over an inch of rain quickly soaked the northern metro, stranding cars in flooded streets in Anoka County. Doppler storm total rainfall shows the swath of heavy rainfall over an inch in the north metro.

Source: WxUnderground

About 2,800 customers were without power this morning after the storms blew through.

Source: Xcel Energy

Warm front ahead: Last shot at 70 this week?

The active warm front is pushing north today. AM fog may actually give way to some peeks of sun this afternoon n the metro and southern Minnesota.

As warmer air bubbles north, highs may push 70 today, and possibly tomorrow in the metro.

The next wave of rain moves in Wednesday into Thursday, and it could be another good soaker. Rainfall of .50" to 1" is possible again by Thursday evening.

There is enough cold air working in behind the cold front that we could see the system end as a few wet snowflakes late Thursday.

Ugh.

Hurricane Sandy: Hype or threat to East Coast?

This falls under the "too early to be credible" but "worth keeping an eye on" file.

Various scenarios and model solutions paint a widely varied picture with the eventual track of Sandy.

Source: SFWMD

In the shorter term, NHC and most other guidance agree on a path over Jamaica this week, then into the open Atlantic this weekend.

Source: NOAA/NHC

This is where things get dicey.

A few models, including the European and Canadian models bring a powerful hurricane near the east coast by Monday.

The GFS keeps Sandy out in the Atlantic, then "slingshot" a "hybrid super-storm" back west into the coast early next week.

Jason Samenow from the Capital Weather Gang has a nice post laying out the possibilities.

Source: Capital Weather Gang

The wide temperature contrasts between the still warm tropics and increasingly colder northern latitudes in late October pose a unique threat for "hybrid" hurricanes such as the "Perfect Storm" in late October 1991.

There are still many scenarios for Sandy, ranging from no storm landfall on the eastern USA coastline, to a dangerous hurricane that could lash the northeast Monday & Tuesday of next week.

Stay tuned as Sandy continues to develop, and the models continue to crank out various solutions for her eventual path and strength.

PH

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Comments (1)

The storm also appeared to take out train signals and some railroad crossing warning gates in the north metro. My train this morning crossed some roads where the warning lights and gates were not operating.

Posted by Pat M | October 23, 2012 9:00 AM

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