Posted at 12:26 AM on October 8, 2012
by Paul Huttner
"Fire Weather Watch" from the metro south Monday
Gusty winds to 20 to 35+ at times
Shades of grey Monday with fading sun
Spotty light showers develop later PM into Tuesday
50s most of this week after 60s on Monday - No Indian Summer yet
Saturday Soaker? Widespread significant rainfall possible Saturday!
Wetter pattern ahead? Saturday may mark the start of a pattern change that could bring more frequent soaking rains next 2-3 weeks
"Fire Weather" (Again) Monday:
This is getting weird.
Another day of drought, high winds and low humidities means another "Fire Weather Watch."
Twin Cities NWS has details.
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2012
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...
.SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY NOON MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO DROP INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO HASTINGS. IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT THE WATCH WILL LATER BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A cooler front will drop temps back into the 50s for the rest of the week. Frost is a threat again Wednesday morning in the metro.
Saturday Soaker: Harbinger of a wetter pattern ahead?
The medium range forecast maps are looking very promising for increased rainfall over the next 2-3 weeks.
The GFS has been consistent for several days now in brining a wrapped up low pressure system through Minnesota Saturday. If it verifies, the system could push significant Gulf moisture into Minnesota for the first time in months, and wring it out as desperately needed soaking rainfall.
The GFS hints at additional systems in the next 16 days that could produce up to 2" rainfall in the next 16 days, with 3" to 5" totals in Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.