Updraft: October 29, 2012 Archive

Sandy turns toward shore; Storm surge building; Landfall late tonight

Posted at 8:37 AM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Sandy Headlines:

85 mph sustained winds with Category 1 Hurricane Sandy

946 millibars central pressure equivalent of a Category 3 storm

250 miles SE of Atlantic City, New Jersey

Moving NW at 20 mph now - Sandy has made the long anticipated turn to the NW

Landfall late tonight along south Jersey Coast

Coastal & urban flooding already reported in New Jersey

51 mph wind gusts at JFK in New York this morning

8.83 feet water level already this morning at Battery Park, NYC (a full 3 feet higher than predicted level)

20 foot waves just offshore of Long Island this morning

8:53PM EDT High tide at NYC tonight

2 missing & 14 rescued as the HMS Bounty sinks this morning of NC Coast

Hurricane Sandy turns toward the Coast:

The long awaited turn toward the northwest has occurred.

Surge and waves form Sandy are already pounding the coast with more than 12 hours to go until landfall.

Pressure is still falling and winds increasing according to aircraft samples within the storm.

New York City is looking extremely vulnerable from surge tonight, as Sandy moves ashore and winds turn more southerly and push an 11 foot wall of water toward New York Harbor.

Shoreline defenses have already been breached from North Carolina to New York, and Sandy is just getting wound up.

Sandy will race toward shore today, and then slow down. That means a long, 3-4 day duration of rain, wind & surge.

Gusts to 60 mph are now raking the Jersey Coast at Barnegat Light USGS weather station NJ.

The "triple whammy" of storm surge, waves and a full moon high tide will cause the worst damage tonight.

We are just beginning to see Sandy's effects unfold today, and there is already serious coastal flodding and damage.

PH

(1 Comments)

Hurricane Sandy intensifies over 80F Gulf Stream, races toward Jersey Shore

Posted at 11:07 AM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

943 millibars Sandy's central pressure on NHC 11 AM EDT update

Record lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane north of the Carolinas

90 mph winds Sandy has intensified today to a strong Category 1 hurricane

63 mph wind gust on Long Island at Eaton's Neck, NY

90 mph gusts expected along Jersey Coast tonight

8:53pm EDT Next high tide in New York Harbor

+4 feet Water levels in New York already running 4 feet above predicted level

6 to 11 foot storm surge expected in NYC area at high tide tonight as Sandy nears landfall

7pm to 11pm EDT tonight highest risk for severe storm surge flooding in New York City from Sandy

175 miles distance hurricane force winds extend from Sandy's center

485 miles distance tropical storm force winds (39 mph+) extend from center

50 to 60 mph winds and 25 foot waves...expected on Lake Michigan

Sandy shows intensity "flare"

As Sandy passed over a warm ribbon of water near 80F in the Gulf stream this morning, we see a significant "flare" of intensity in the storms central dense overcast.

Sandy is now a massive well organized storm with a nasty and well defined center. The IR loop even shows signs that Sandy has once again attempted to develop an eye.

Details from the 11 am EDT NHC discussion.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND 27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE.

At 90 mph, Sandy is a strong Category 1 storm. With an incredible central pressure of 943 millibars, Sandy has deepened significantly. 943 millibars is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Since Sandy is no longer purely a hurricane and is transitioning to extra tropical, we can see this kind of pressure...without associated Cat 4 wind speeds.

Still Sandy is a very dangerous storm, and the worst effects still lie ahead in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Sandy will make landfall on the Jersey Coast late tonight.

PH

(1 Comments)

Slow motion weather disaster in progress; NYC storm surge record; Water in tunnels now

Posted at 7:46 PM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Anatomy of a slow motion weather disaster.

NYC Battery storm surge falling now from peak of 13.88 feet, but damage is already done and flooding continues.

NYC NWS storm report: WATER 3FT DEEP IN 4 NEW YORK PLAZA AND 6FT DEEP OUTSIDE.

Floodwaters pour into train station.
Photo from a security cam in a Hoboken, NJ transit station.

NYC Battery surge still rising from 13.85 feet. (9:06PM EDT)

Water in tunnels now. Slow motion weather disaster unfolding in NYC.

Floodwaters enter Hugh L. Carey Tunnel

Photo: MTA Bridges and Tunnels

Next: Waves

And now the waves. Waves in NYC Harbor will increase next few hours as winds turn more SE as Sandy's center moves by.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
615 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

0610 PM 10/29/2012 NON-TSTM WND GST EATONS NECK, NY M94 MPH MESONET

90 mph Hurricane Sandy maintains 90 mph sustained winds as of 5pm EDT update

80 mph gusts now along the Jersey Coast

Racing NW at 28 mph Sandy sped up today and is racing onshore this evening EDT

"Condition critical" in NYC next 6 hours as rising surge and high tide will spike water levels

10-12 foot storm surge likely tonight for Battery Park in NYC

8:53pm EDT next high tide in NYC area

Massive storm effects as far west as Chicago on Lake Michigan

Sandy races inland:

Sandy picked up speed today and raced toward the Jersey Coast.

It's important not to focus too much on landfall due to the widespread damaging winds and effects from Sandy, but she will come ashore early this evening RDT in southern New Jersey or as the center skirts the Delaware Bay.

81 mph winds have been recorded as far away as Massachusetts.

Worst to come after landfall:

As Sandy moves ashore, the winds along the Jersey Coast north toward New York City will shift direction, and blow more from the south. That will push the storm surge...the huge bubble of water into New York Harbor around the full moon high tide tonight.

This is the nightmare scenario many of us meteorologists have worried about for decades, and tonight will severally test flood protection in the city of New York.

Huge storm:

Sandy literally covers the eastern half of the USA. Tropical storm force winds over 40 mph winds extend 485 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds are reported as far north as Massachusetts.

HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

Appalachain Mountain "Blizzicane"

Blizzard warnings are in effect for 1 to 3 feet of snow and high winds as freezing air feeds into the western side of Sandy.

Lake Michigan "Sieche" ahead:

As Sandy moves west Tuesday 50 to 60 mph winds will funnel down the entire length of Lake Michigan from the NNE.

That strong push of water will create a sieche on the long lake fetch, and water will pile up with coastal flooding in Chicago and the south end of Lake Michigan in northern Indiana.

You can think of a sieche as what happens when you push the water in a bathtub to one end, it rises dramatically on the other side.

Widespread damage: Damage reports from wind and flooding are to numerous to print here...here's a link the NYC NWS storm reports.

Bottom line: Damage will increase tonight and last 2-3 more days as Sandy moves ashore and slows down over the northeast. Effects will be felt from Canada to Georgia and as far west as Lake Michigan and Chicago. Waves may even begin to build on Lake Superior near Duluth as NE winds reach 10-20 mph Tuesday.

PH

(6 Comments)

Sandy still packs wind, rain & snow; Damage will take days to fully assess

Posted at 11:48 PM on October 29, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Landfall Sandy made landfall Monday evening near Atlantic City, NJ

Record storm surge flooding & damaging wind gusts

ABC Action 6 News

From New Jersey to NYC, Sandy's powerful storm surge reached record levels.

50% of Hoboken, NJ is "under water" as of early Monday AM according to the Mayor.

Details on a few of Sandy's impacts from NHC:

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED STORM TIDE HEIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...OF 13.3 FEET AT KINGS POINT NEW YORK...13.7 FEET AT THE BATTERY NEW YORK...AND 13.3 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

A WIND GUST TO 79 MPH WAS REPORTED AT JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW YORK. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ISLIP NEW YORK.

New York City Disaster:

Unfortunately, Hurricane Sandy was every bit as bad as meteorologists advertised.

The record storm surge in New York has inundated major parts of the city.

Streets, power plants, subways and commuter tunnels under water. Much of lower Manhattan plunged into darkness as explosions rock a power station.

It will take much of Tuesday and maybe much longer than that to fully assess the damage, and begin to understand the impact and longer term consequences of this historic storm.

6 million (and counting) are without power that will take many days to restore.

800,000+ without power on Long Island alone

Storm sinks HMS Bounty: Dramatic Coast Guard rescue

The storm took the HMS Bounty 90 miles off the Carolina Coast Monday.

Here are the amazing details and rescue video from the U.S. Coast Guard.

In the first major U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue operation associated with Hurricane Sandy, the Coast Guard has rescued 14 people from life rafts in the Atlantic Ocean approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras, N.C. The search continues for two people who remain missing from the crew of HMS Bounty.

The owner of the 180-foot, three-mast tall ship HMS Bounty, a replica of the original British transport vessel built for the 1962 film "Mutiny on the Bounty" starring Marlon Brando, contacted Coast Guard Sector North Carolina after losing communication with the crew late Sunday evening. The 5th Coast Guard District command center in Portsmouth, Va., subsequently received a signal from the emergency distress position indicating radio beacon, or EPIRB, registered to the Bounty confirming the distress and position.

Records fall:

It will take a while to get final numbers, but Sandy appears to have set many storm related records including:

940 millibars Lowest observed barometer for any storm North of the Carolinas

13.88 feet storm surge driven record water level at Battery Park in NYC

Unprecedented track and intensification for a storm so late in season

Hurricane done, Sandy not:

Sandy is not over. The major coastal surge and flooding will ease, but the giant swirl of wind, rain and snow will continue to cause some damage Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday.

Image: http://hint.fm/wind/

- Blizzard Warnings with 3 to 4 foot snowfall totals will rage Tuesday in the Appalachians.

-Gale Warnings and Lakeshore Flood Warnings continue for Chicago and the southern end of Lake Michigan for waves as high as 33 feet. A major "sieche" will drive water to the south end of the lake.

-Lakeshore Flood Warnings are also flying for northern Ohio.

Tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 mph will cover much of the NE USA Tuesday.

The slowly weakening storm will linger in the northeast through Halloween.

Stay tuned as we see what Sandy has in store Tuesday...and beyond.

PH