Updraft: October 22, 2012 Archive

Wetter week ahead; Up to 1" rain? Temps crash by Thursday

Posted at 8:21 AM on October 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner

Rain & thunder - radars in Iowa & SE MN lighting up today

1"+ rainfall totals in Iowa so far today

.50" to 1" rainfall at MSP Wednesday night & Thursday?

Source: Twin Cities NWS

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest La Crosse radar loop

71 degrees High temp at MSP Sunday

56 degrees average high for October 21st

+15 degrees vs. average Sunday

30 degrees colder by Friday

-1.5 degrees vs. average so far in October at MSP Airport

16 months since we've recorded a cooler than average month in Minnesota

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Radars aglow with...rain?

Pretty colors on the radar. What a concept.

A vigorous upper air disturbance is setting off a nice cluster of rain & thunder in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin today. The system has produced widespread soaking rains in Iowa, with totals over an inch according to doppler storm total rainfall displays.

The system will clip southeastern Minnesota with some nice soaking rains...and graze the Twin Cities with a few showers today.

The NAM and GFS keep most of the heaviest soaking rains well south & east of the Twin Cities...where up to 1" will fall in southeast Minnesota, eastern Iowa and Wisconsin.

Map: NOAA/HPC

A few scattered showers will brush the metro today. A clap or two of thunder is likely in southeast Minnesota...and not out of the question in especially the southeast metro.

Better soaking Wednesday night & Thursday?

Wave #1 sails through today, then a warm front pushes north tomorrow PM.

Skies may actually clear for some late PM sunny peeks tomorrow...and temps may push 70 in southern Minnesota.

The nest wave sails in Wednesday into Thursday...and this one could be more productive for the metro and most of Minnesota.

Several models crank out at least .50" rainfall by late Thursday...with up to 1" possible. Weather fingers and toes crossed.

Temps crash Thursday: Big league cold front

Our Indian Summer 2012 comes to an abrupt halt Thursday as a strong cold front pushes south.

Temps will fall through the 40s Thursday...and highs may not crack 45 through the upcoming weekend. Saturday looks like the coldest day, with 20s in the AM and a high near 39 in the metro.

Source: NOAA via Iowa State University

Shut your hose spigots off this week or you may be in for a nasty surprise by this weekend.

Let's hope the rain spigot is on for the metro by Thursday....our landscape needs a drink.

PH

AM showers; Season's last 70? 1" rains possible by Thursday

Posted at 5:20 PM on October 22, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

AM showers & possible thunder today

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

70s likely Tuesday PM for southern Minnesota including the metro

Last 70? Tuesday will likely be the last shot at 70F for 2013

.50" to 1" rainfall possible Thursday...looking better for some meaningful rain

64F High temp Monday at MSP Airport

+9F vs. average for October 22nd

How to fix a weather satellite in orbit NOAA fixes GOES 13 - details below

Tuesday warm front: Season's last 70F?

I know...it's hard to imagine.

But if you consider we hit 70F on March 14th (73F) for the 1st time in 2012...with 70 again likely on October 23rd it's hard to mourn the potential loss of 70s until spring 2013 too much.

Image: NOAA

At 224 days, this may be the longest stretch of 70 to 70 degree warmth in the metro on record. 7+ months of 70 degree warmth in Minnesota? That's pretty crazy...and feels more like Kansas City or St. Louis.

Rare & "meaningful" rain on the way?

It's nice to see multiple forecast models agreeing on a potential rainmaker for rain starved Minnesota.

After months of drought, gun-shy meteorologists are just waiting for the next potential storm to evaporate and vanish from the weather maps.

This one still looks pretty good.

Monday's low pressure wave dumped significant rainfall across Iowa and Wisconsin.

Wave #2 arrives Wednesday and Thursday, and should deliver widespread rain.

Source: NOAA/HPC

The GFS & NAM are cranking out as much as 1" of rainfall potential for the Twin Cities and much of central Minnesota by Thursday evening.

Source: NOAA/ISU

That would be a blessing in this drought plagued year we call 2012.

Stay tuned.

Big League cold front Thursday:

As the rain falls Thursday, so will temperatures.

Temps should fall through the 40s, and this weekend looks shockingly cold after 70s in recent days.

Source: Iowa State University

Saturday looks like the coldest of the bunch with lows in the 20s and highs struggling to reach the upper 30s.

Sunday night surprise?

Okay, it technically wouldn't be a surprise if I'm taking about it the previous Monday. But it still might be a shock to the system.

The GFS is hinting at the potential for accumulating s...s...sn-ow Sunday night into Monday morning in southern Minnesota...and possibly the metro.

Source: NOAA/IPS Meteostar

It's way early to be confident, and the GFS is notoriously error prone that far out. But the overall pattern I see does suggest the air will be cold enough for snow, and if an upper air disturbance passes overhead...it may not be farfetched.

Could the metro see our 1st inch of snow by next Monday October 29th?

Again...stay tuned.

NOAA fixes GOES 13 "on the fly"

"Lock on the tractor beam Scotty"

This would be cool science fiction if it wasn't real.

Adjustments are made to orbiting satellites all the time, but it's pretty cool o\how NOAA and engineers from Boeing & ITT fixed "GOES East" as it hovered 22,300 miles up.

It should be up and running again Thursday.

Details from NOAA:

The GOES-13 spacecraft, which had its sounder and imager instruments taken out of service because of technical trouble in late September, will return to full operations on Thursday as NOAA's GOES East satellite, NOAA officials said today.

The trouble stemmed from a motor vibration, which caused a lubricant buildup that obstructed the spinning motion of the filter wheel in the sounder. A team of engineers from NOAA, Boeing and ITT suppressed the vibration, the filter wheel restarted and is running smoothly, with improved performance.

NOAA turned off the two instruments on September 23, and immediately configured GOES-15, the West Coast satellite, to provide additional coverage of the eastern United States and part of the Atlantic Ocean. Within a few hours, NOAA activated its on-orbit spare satellite, GOES-14, for full service.

And as a team of engineers from NOAA, Boeing and ITT continued to pinpoint the cause of the problem, NOAA began moving GOES-14 towards the position where GOES-13 was situated. GOES-14 will return to its earlier status as the on-orbit spare, NOAA officials said.

PH

(1 Comments)