Posted at 3:00 PM on October 17, 2012
by Paul Huttner
.50"+ in much of Minnesota by Friday
Gusty winds favor western Minnesota next 48 hours
Indian Summer returns this weekend
Near 70 by Sunday in southern Minnesota & metro?
Wetter pattern - multiple rain chances next week
GFS: Major rain & snow chance weekend of October 27-28th?
Fall coming 10 days later in USA? Details below
Finally some rain:
It may not be 40 day & 40 nights, but rain is falling around Minnesota.
A cold front is sweeping in, and low pressure is gathering strength and swirling south the next 36 hours over Minnesota. The rainfall will be patchwork, but several hours of more widespread rainfall are likely as the low spins south Thursday.
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Temps will hover in the 40s for most of Minnesota through Thursday.
Perfect timing? Indian Summer weekend taking shape
The weather will mellow this weekend in Minnesota as lazy high pressure builds in.
Look for more sunshine, and temps will respond into the mid to upper 60s and may crack 70 in southern Minnesota including the metro by Sunday afternoon.
This should be a great weekend to get those leaves up, or enjoy a long walk or bike ride.
Wetter days ahead?
Boy I hope the models are right about this one.
The GFS and Euro are hinting at a more active storm track next week.
Monday brings a chance of lighter rains. Wednesday may bring more widespread significant rains.
We really need to start the process of soaking up soils before the ground freezes up in the next few weeks. Any moisture we can get now should be "banked" for next spring as evaporation is low this time of year.
GFS: Possible major rain & snow maker weekend of October 27th & 28th?
Yes, this is pretty far out in the weather crystal ball. But the GFS model has been painting a strong low pressure system for several runs now over Minnesota the weekend of October 27th & 28th.
The latest version brings the potential for heavy soaking rains to southern Minnesota, and heavy snow to central and northern Minnesota.
It's still too early to say credibly the system will evolve as currently depicted, but at this point I'd say there at least a 50/50 shot at some decent rain & snow the weekend of October 27th & 28th.
The really too very early look at Halloween looks cold at this point with temps possibly in the 30s and 40s.
Study: Fall leaves peaking & falling 10 days later than in the 1980s
Here's an interesting if not surprising study that our falls are indeed getting later on average in Minnesota and the USA. I know our community in the west metro has pushed back the city's annual "fall pick up day" by a week in recent years.
If it feels or looks like autumn leaves are taking longer to change color, you're not imagining things. Over the past 25 years, the onset of autumn has shifted throughout the lower 48 states, with leaves now staying on trees about 10 days longer than they did in the early 1980s.
Using satellite-based measurements of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which gauges leaf cover over wide areas, researchers at the Seoul National University in South Korea found that the end of the growing season occurred progressively later over the course of their 26-year study. By noting the time of year changes in color occurred most rapidly, the researchers could track when fall started between 1982 and 2008.