Updraft: July 30, 2012 Archive

Warm trend to continue

Posted at 6:49 AM on July 30, 2012 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Seasonal forecasting, Summer

There are two days left in the second month of meteorological summer. The above-normal temperature trend will continue.

But the normal temperatures are already declining. The 30-year average high temperature for July 30 in the Twin Cities is 83 degrees. For July 7 to July 22 the average maximum temperature at the International Airport in the Twin Cities is 84 degrees. By no means are we in rapid descent.

Saturday night and Sunday morning's rain tallied about a third of an inch to two-thirds of an inch in east central Minnesota. But once again, the far southwest corner of the state missed out on the moisture. So far this month of July, Sioux Falls, S.D. has recorded a mere quarter inch of rain and less than an inch (0.98) of rain since June 1.

Perhaps the farmlands can look forward to some badly needed rain this week, but not before things heat up again today into Wednesday. The forecast from NOAA/NCEP paints a potential of more than an inch of rain in far southwest Minnesota and northeast South Dakota Wednesday night through Friday.

High temperatures this afternoon will approach 90 degrees in southern Minnesota and western Minnesota. Yesterday's temperatures were a bit topsy-turvy. Roseau in far northwest Minnesota recorded a high of 91 with only 73 degrees in Preston, due to a rather persistent cloud layer. The Twin Cities reached 80 degrees. June 25th was the last day the thermometer failed to climb to 80 (77 degrees) or better at MSP.

By the time we reach the weekend temperatures will be closer to normal. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s will still feel quite nice. NOAA's temperature outlook for August continues the trend of above normal temperatures in a large region of the continental U.S.

Source: NOAA/NCEP

Precipitation outlook for August 2012.
Source: NOAA/NCEP

On Friday there was a nice example of differential heating displayed on the visible satellite image. This NOAA visible satellite picture from mid afternoon nicely depicts the heated land surface inducing cumulus cloud formation. You can clearly note the more stable air over the larger bodies of water that essentially remain cloud free.

Wondering about the dew points? Expect them to remain mainly in the 60s today and Tuesday and then climbing into the 70s for a very warm and humid Wednesday.

Craig Edwards