Updraft: June 13, 2012 Archive

"June-Soon" moves in; Heavy rainfall "Bull's Eye" over MN next 5 days?

Posted at 8:54 AM on June 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)

Source: Twin Cities NWS (Click to embiggen)

4.84" GFS model rainfall total for MSP Airport through next Tuesday

4.6" ECMWF (European) model rainfall output

Scattered showers today moving east

Radar: Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Heavy rains possible Thursday & Saturday?

Severe risk Thursday includes MSP area

Watch 131 years of global warming in 26 seconds

Minnesota: 3rd fastest warming state in the nation

.62F degrees per decade pace of warming in Minnesota

Colorado's "High Park Fire" smoke plume now overhead in Minnesota

Source: Twin Cities NWS

"June-Soon"

Here we go again.

Sunday's rain ended a dry stretch of 12 days from May 29 through June 9th. (.03")

Now the faucet is turning on again, and it looks like it may get cranked up to "high" in the next 72 hours.

Here's a look at the evolving wet weather pattern over the next 5-6 days.

The System: A slow moving upper level low pressure system sending waves of energy into Minnesota through the weekend into early next week.

Moisture: Dew points rising into the 60s and even 70s by Father's Day weekend.

Rainfall: Multi inch rainfall possible, with the heaviest rainfall likely Thursday and again Saturday night into Father's Day, Monday & Tuesday.

Take a look at some of the model guidance below. Anywhere from 3" to 6" rainfall totals are possible according to various models by next Tuesday.

Source: Iowa State University

Source: NOAA/HPC

Possible Effects: Hit or miss T-Storms with heavy tropical rainfall. Possible severe risk Thursday & Saturday-Tuesday? Another wave of rising river levels by early next week?

Source: NOAA/SPC

Colorado's "High Park Fire" sending smoke our way:

I posted extensively on this Tuesday, and the latest NOAA satellite shots indicate the smoke plume is riding over Minnesota and much of the Midwest now.

Source: NOAA/NESDIS

Here's a way to track the smoke plume from NOAA's NESDIS Fire Detection Program.

131 years of global warming in 26 seconds?

For those of you in a hurry who don't have 131 years to watch global warming happen, here's the quick version from Climate Central.

Source: Climate Central

Minnesota: We're #3! 3rd "fastest warming" state in the nation

Here's an eye opening study from Climate Central.

Source: Climate Central

Stay dry!

PH

(3 Comments)

Thursday Thunder: Flag Day brings heavy rain & severe threat

Posted at 11:09 PM on June 13, 2012 by Paul Huttner

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Thursday Thunder:

While the lead wave in our change to a wetter weather pattern was weak Wednesday, the next one looks stronger and should produce more widespread rainfall Thursday and Thursday evening.

SPC has laid out a slight risk area that includes much of southern Minnesota.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Here's the technical "weather geek" speak on the convective outlook from SPC.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN NEB...

TSTMS SHOULD BE ON-GOING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN AT 12Z THU AIDED BY STG LOW-LEVEL WAA. DESPITE SOME QUESTION ON THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/JG...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 45-50 KTS AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.

SVR PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

Tornado Threat?

There may be enough spin or "directional wind shear" to spawn a few rotating supercells Thursday afternoon. Check out the "helicity" fields below from twisterdata.com.

Source: www.twisterdata.com

You can see there may be enough shear to produce tornadic supercells from Redwood Falls and Willmar into the Twin Cities metro Thursday afternoon. The best chance of a twister producing storm appears to be between 1pm and 5pm if we get enough sun and heating.

Friday looks dry and hot with a high near 90, but dew points may fall into the more comfotable 50s. Thunder looks to return this weekend.

Source: Twin Cities NWS

Smoke coverage increases:

You may notice an unusual whitish tint to the sky today in addition to the clouds. The smoke plume from the Colorado "High Park Fire" is spreading east, according to this analysis from NOAA's Fire Detection Program.

Source: NOAA/NESDIS

PH