Posted at 9:00 AM on June 5, 2012
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Astronomy
85+ degrees Mainly sunny & warm again today
7 foot drop in the St. Croix River since Saturday
Growing thunder threatWednesday & especially Thursday night
Weekend "Hot front" temps near 90 degrees
Tropical dew points in the 70s this weekend
100 degrees - heat index this weekend?
Severe risk in north & central Minnesota this weekend (and maybe the metro)
Venus transit begins at 5:03pm:
If you want to safely see today's Venus transit of the sun here are some options.
U of M in Minneapolis:
Join us for the 2012 Transit of Venus
On June 5th the planet Venus will pass between the Earth and the Sun. In Minneapolis we will be able to view this as a small dot crossing the Sun as the Sun is setting. The Institute for Astrophysics will be hosting a public talk on the transit as well as solar telescopes for safe observing of the event. This will be the last chance to view a transit of Venus until 2117 so don't miss this opportunity! It is important to remember that one should NEVER look at the Sun without proper protection. We are happy to provide telescopes with special filters designed to make viewing this event a safe and pleasant experience. We're hosting a special Public Viewing on Tuesday June 5th, 2012 which will include an invited talk on the transit.
4:00pm-5:00pm - Tate 166
U professor Dr. Terry Jones will be giving an informational talk about the transit just before the event begins.
5:00pm-9:00pm - Tate 450/Roof
Telescopes with proper filters for safe viewing will be provided on the roof of the building for the public to look through and see the event. Take the south elevator to floor 4S to reach the roof access through room 450. In the event of cloud cover we will also be streaming live video of the event from Hawaii.
Eisenhower Observatory Viewing Party - Hopkins
Rivers take a tumble:
What goes up must come down. The law of gravity applies to rivers too.
After rising 7 feet in May, the St. Croix River has (thankfully) fallen 6 feet since Saturday at St. Croix Falls.
The Crow and Minnesota are down around 2 feet and expected to continue dropping fast the next few days.
Minnehaha Creek has also dropped rapidly the past few days.
Thunder threat gradually increases:
A potent upper low pressure system spinning near Seattle will begin to nudge east toward Minnesota late this week.
Ahead of the system, a stronger southerly flow will generate a warm front...and that may spark some (especially overnight) showers & T-Storms the next few days.
We'll see a slight increase in T-Storms chances Wednesday into Thursday, but it looks like the best chance of an overnight MCS rumbling through Minnesota with high winds & heavy rains may be Thursday night into Friday morning.
Weekend outlook: Amazon heat with a chance of thunder
A weekend "hot front" will push through Minnesota Saturday. Strong southerly winds will feed in an increasingly hot and very humid air mass. This should bring the highest dew points of so far this summer season to Minnesota.
We're talking dew points in the 70s...and when you combine that type of jungle heat with temps near 90 we could see some heat index readings approaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
If you're hosting a graduation party this weekend have some cool drinks at the ready, and AC may be a nice option. Rain chances will favor northern Minnesota, but we can't rule out some thunder in the metro this weekend.
There is also the threat for some severe storms this weekend, especially in northern and central Minnesota. (What would a summer weekend be without an SPC "risk area" anyway?)
We are entering the "climatological peak" of severe weather season in Minnesota in the next 30 days.
Stay tuned as we tweak the forecast approaching this weekend!
Posted at 6:16 PM on June 5, 2012
by Paul Huttner
83 degree high Tuesday at MSP Airport
76 average high for June 5th
13 days at or above 80 degrees so far in 2012
6 days at or above 80 through June 5th in 2011
+2.4 degrees vs. average so far in June at MSP Airport
Approaching 60 degrees Lake Superior water temps near Duluth Tuesday
D-Day weather forecast changed the course of history
NASA live stream of Venus solar transit:
Warm start to "Meteorological Summer:"
We're off and running in the 13th straight warmer than average month in Minnesota.
Through Tuesday June 5th, temps are running +2.4 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport. We've banked 13 days of 80 degree warmth this year...compared to just 6 last year by this date.
Pleasant high pressure is doing a good job of holding any rain chances at bay this week. It looks like the best chance for (widespread) rain & thunder will come Thursday in western & northern Minnesota and Thursday night into Friday morning in the metro.
Heat builds this weekend:
Heat and humidity will ooze north as we move into the 2nd weekend of June. Southerly winds will pump steamy air north into Minnesota Saturday. Temps could approach 90 but the real story will be the highest dew points of the season in the 70s this weekend.
It's going to feel like the jungle out there at times this weekend. Overall this will be hot summery weekend...a great time to hit the beach. Have a plan "B" that includes a little AC for your graduation party this weekend.
Warmest Spring on record visualized:
Here's a great graphic from the Twin Cities NWS on our warmest spring on record.
Lake Superior: Almost swimmable soon?
Take a look at water temps in western Lake Superior Tuesday.
Temps are approaching 60 degrees near Duluth and in the Apostle Islands. At this rate temps may approach the upper 60s to near 70 in the next 2-3 weeks. That's early for "swimmable" water on the big lake. It's still plenty chilly though along the North Shore and out in the big lake.
D-Day Weather forecast revisited:
It's one of the most "successful" forecasts in history. The call to delay the D-Day invasion a day worked out perfectly. The rest is history.
Check out this detailed reanalysis of the invasion forecast from the European Medium Range Forecast Center.
Analyzing and forecasting the weather of early June 1944
Weather forecasts critical to the success of the D-Day landings of 6 June 1944 were made on the nights of 3/4 and 4/5 June 1944:
forecasts for conditions on 5 June made on the evening of 3 June and confirmed early in morning of 4 June;
forecasts for conditions on 6 June made on the evening of 4 June and confirmed early in the morning of 5 June.
The first of these two forecasts, presented to General Eisenhower by his meteorological advisor, Group Captain J.M. Stagg, led to the postponement of the invasion planned for 5 June; the second enabled Eisenhower to make the decision to go ahead on the following day.
One of the forecasters involved, Lawrence Hogben, writing in the Royal Meteorological Society's magazine Weather in June 1994 recalled how three separate teams, from the Met Office, the Royal Navy and the US Air Force, first made separate forecasts and then sought consensus - an early example of what today we refer to as ensemble forecasting. On the evening of 3 June the teams initially split two-to-one in favour of conditions leading to postponement; the following evening it was initially a two-to-one split in favour of conditions that would allow the invasion to proceed. Demanding military requirements, stormy weather in the Atlantic and associated fronts moving up the English Channel combined to make forecasting far from easy, and decisions were finely balanced.