Updraft: April 15, 2012 Archive

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Sunday Severe: Metro upgraded to "moderate risk"; 120 Tornadoes Saturday

Posted at 1:32 AM on April 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

"Moderate Risk" SPC upgrades MSP area to moderate risk Sunday

Twin Cities, Owatonna, Waseca, Northfield, Winona, Albert Lea, Rochester, all under a moderate risk Sunday according to SPC

15% chance of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of any spot in the moderate risk area Sunday according to SPC

45% to 50% chance of damaging winds and/or 1"+ diameter hail in the risk area Sunday

120 tornadoes reported Saturday by SPC (From OK to KS, NE & IA)

Source: NOAA/SPC

Soaking rains in MN Sunday morning - some 1"+ totals

Severe Sunday Ahead:

The powerful low pressure system that spawned 120 tornadoes Saturday (according to SPC) is nudging northeast into Minnesota Sunday.

While it looks lik the Twin Cities is on the northern edge of the most severe part of the system, SPC has now upgraded all of southeast Minnesota from the Twin Cities south & east to a "moderate risk" for severe weather and possible tornadoes Sunday.

Source: NOAA/SPC

Be alert for possible watches and warnings Sunday in the area. Here are some links to track the changing weather situation Sunday.

-Storm Prediction Center
-Twin Cities NWS
-La Crosse NWS
-Twin Cities radar loop

(1 Comments)

Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, snow Monday?

Posted at 12:08 PM on April 15, 2012 by MPR News Staff
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

By Bill Endersen

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their usual midday updated severe weather outlook for the remainder of the day. The Twin Cities metro area continues to be in a moderate risk area for severe weather along with south central and southeastern Minnesota and adjacent portions of Wisconsin and Iowa.

The most likely time period for thunderstorms in and near the metro area is between approximately 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. today. Some storms are likely to be strong and some could become severe. Any thunderstorms that develop during the late afternoon should track rapidly to the northeast into Wisconsin. This will be a short duration event that will end around the metro area during the early evening.

Farther north rain over northern Minnesota will give way to showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and then snow tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeastern Minnesota for late tonight and tomorrow morning as snowfalls of two to five inches will be accompanied by strong winds, blowing and drifting. Near white-out conditions are possible for parts of the Iron Range by late tonight.

By tomorrow morning rain could become mixed with snow even in the metro area.

Tornado watch dropped for west metro - Severe threat easing

Posted at 7:08 PM on April 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

Watch dropping off in western counties as severe threat lessens tonight!

Expect a few lingering storms this evening with rain, small hail and some gusty winds.

Source: NWS

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 178
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
714 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

MNC013-015-019-043-053-059-079-085-091-103-139-141-143-165-171-
160115-
/O.CAN.KMPX.TO.A.0178.000000T0000Z-120416T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 178 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MINNESOTA THIS CANCELS 15 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA

MCLEOD SHERBURNE SIBLEY
WRIGHT

IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

CARVER HENNEPIN ISANTI
SCOTT

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

BLUE EARTH BROWN FARIBAULT
LE SUEUR MARTIN NICOLLET
WATONWAN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BLUE EARTH...CAMBRIDGE...CHASKA...
ELK RIVER...FAIRMONT...GAYLORD...HUTCHINSON...LE SUEUR...
MANKATO...MINNEAPOLIS...MONTICELLO...NEW ULM...SHAKOPEE...
ST. JAMES AND ST. PETER.

MNC003-025-037-047-049-123-131-147-161-163-WIC005-017-033-035-091-
093-095-107-109-160400-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.A.0178.000000T0000Z-120416T0400Z/

TORNADO WATCH 178 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

ANOKA CHISAGO DAKOTA
RAMSEY WASHINGTON

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

FREEBORN RICE STEELE
WASECA

IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

GOODHUE

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

BARRON POLK RUSK

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE
PEPIN PIERCE ST. CROIX

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALBERT LEA...BLAINE...CENTER CITY...
CHIPPEWA FALLS...DURAND...EAU CLAIRE...FARIBAULT...HASTINGS...
HUDSON...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE...OSCEOLA...OWATONNA...RED WING...
RICE LAKE...RIVER FALLS...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER AND WASECA.

Update 7:10pm:

Downpours, dime and nickel sized hail and gusty winds with storms moving through metro now.

Update from NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

MNZ052-053-060>063-WIZ014-023-160030-
ANOKA-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-POLK-RAMSEY-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-
659 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AT 656 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROBBINSDALE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...MINOR STREET FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
HILLTOP.
FRIDLEY.
MOUNDS VIEW.
CIRCLE PINES.
LINO LAKES.
HUGO.

Update 6:30pm:

Storms are picking up speed and moving rapidly into metro between 6:30pm and 8pm tonight.

Storms are moving quiclky NE at 35 to 45 mph and contain heavy rain, some hail and gusty winds.

The good news is that the storms are merging into "lines" instead of individual supercells, which means they tend to have a lower chance of producing tornadoes.

Still, a tornado watch remains in effect until 11pm.

From NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

MNZ059>062-068>070-160000-
ANOKA-CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WRIGHT-
630 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AT 629 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOREWOOD. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
SHOREWOOD.
CHANHASSEN.
EDEN PRAIRIE.
HOPKINS.
EDINA.
BLOOMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.33695652173913043&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=MPX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=10&map.x=411.5&map.y=215.5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

18 rad 2.gif
Source: WxUnderground

6pm:

MPX expires Tornado Warning for Carver, Wright [MN]

Update 5:30PM:

MPX continues Tornado Warning for McLeod [MN] till 6:00 PM CDT ...AT 524 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BISCAY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.
Tornadic cells now near Glencoe, Hutchinson west of the metro.

Source: Wxunderground

MPX: Fairfax [Renville Co, MN] law enforcement reports HAIL of nickel size (U0.88 INCH) at 04:45 PM CDT --

Update 5pm:

Area of greatest concern for severe weather (and possible tornadoes) next few hours runs from central MN near Renville & Sibley counties, east into the Metro and south to Mankato, Owatonna, Waseca, Northfield and along the I-35 corridor.

Sunshine has warmed temps into the mid 70s south of the metro, while the warm frontal boundary lies right in the Twin Cities.

Expect storms to strengthen and new stronger storms to form in these areas this evening.

MPX: 3 W Redwood Falls [Redwood Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 04:28 PM CDT --

Update 4:20pm:

1st tornado reported on the ground in MN in Lyon County.

FSD: 5 N Ghent [Lyon Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 04:11 PM CDT -- tornado on ground. spotter 3 miles north of ghent looking north.

Posted 3:39pm

SPC has issued Tornado Watch #178 until 11pm tonight including the Twin Cities metro area.

Clearing skies in southern Minnesota are providing the trigger for rapidly developing T-Storms this afternoon & evening.

Abundant directional wind shear means storms will rotate, and have the capacity to produce tornadoes.

Stay alert for warnings through this evening, and listen for updates on MPR news stations, including KNOW 91.1FM in the metro.

Is your NOAA weather radio tuned up?

-Twin Cities NWS
-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Source: NOAA/SPC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Here are some storm reports as they come in:

FSD: 2 N Ghent [Lyon Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 04:10 PM CDT --

(1 Comments)

Near Miss: Minnesota narrowly dodges severe weather bullet

Posted at 10:29 PM on April 15, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Severe weather

126 (preliminary) tornado reports in the plains Saturday according to NOAA's SPC

5 killed in Woodward, Oklahoma tornado Saturday

10 tornado reports Sunday

3 tornado reports in Minnesota Sunday

No reports of damage or injuries in Minnesota

"High end, life-threatening event" NOAA's alarming wording before Saturday's outbreak

Did "enhanced wording" save lives last weekend?

Lucky Break:

Skies turned ugly and stormy in Minnesota Sunday, but it could have been much worse.

A lucky combination of incomplete clearing (we didn't get warm enough) and April sun power instead of May or June limited storms in Minnesota just enough to keep them mostly just below severe limits in Minnesota.

Still, 3 tornadoes did touch down, and funnel clouds, gusty winds and hail and (welcome) heavy rain pelted the landscape.

Source: NOAA/SPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1021 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 N MONTEVIDEO 45.10N 95.72W
04/15/2012 E2.00 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES

0526 PM TORNADO 2 SW BROWNTON 44.71N 94.38W
04/15/2012 MCLEOD MN STORM CHASER

0532 PM TORNADO 2 NE BISCAY 44.85N 94.25W
04/15/2012 MCLEOD MN AMATEUR RADIO

CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND.

0536 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE NEW AUBURN 44.69N 94.20W
04/15/2012 SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0536 PM HAIL SACRED HEART 44.78N 95.35W
04/15/2012 M0.75 INCH RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 PM HAIL GLENCOE 44.77N 94.15W
04/15/2012 M1.00 INCH MCLEOD MN EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CITY

0633 PM HAIL MONTROSE 45.07N 93.91W
04/15/2012 M0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0654 PM HAIL NEW HOPE 45.04N 93.39W
04/15/2012 M0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

DIME AND PENNY SIZE HAIL

"Enhanced Wording" saved lives?

Saturday's serious tornado outbreak put up some astounding numbers.

NOAA/SPC

There are some reports that uber serious hyped up wording may have lead more people to pay attention this weekend, and potentially saved some lives.

There was a lot of damage with storms in Oklahoma and Kansas, but relatively few deaths and injurious considering the number and location of tornadoes.

The story from the New York Times

"WOODWARD, Okla. -- The tornadoes were unrelenting -- more than 100 in 24 hours over a stretch of the Plains states. They tossed vehicles and ripped through homes. They drove families to their basements and whipped debris across small towns throughout the Midwest. In some areas, baseball-size hail rained from the sky.

:
Travis Heying/The Wichita Eagle, via Associated Press
(Barbara Cline and her dog, Daisy, sat on the steps of her damaged home in Wichita on Sunday.)

And yet, in a stroke that some officials have attributed to a more vigilant and persistent warning system, relatively few people were killed or injured.

As of late Sunday afternoon, the only five confirmed deaths from the weekend storms were all here in Woodward, a rural community about 140 miles from Oklahoma City. Local emergency management officials said on Sunday that children were among the victims and that there were 29 injured with ailments ranging from minor wounds to those requiring hospitalization.

Days ahead of the deadly winds there was an unusual warning that alerted residents across at least five states to the threat of "extremely dangerous" and "catastrophic" weather.

The predictions held, it seems. But the people listened.

"I really think people took the warnings and they took them very seriously," Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas said Sunday. "We had more notice on this system than you normally do. You normally are looking at a couple of hours' notice. Well, this one had almost two days' notice."

In southwest Iowa, a tornado battered the small town of Thurman, damaging or destroying 75 to 90 percent of its homes, the authorities said. And yet, somehow in the town of about 200, there were no serious injuries or deaths reported. "Mostly everybody was able to get to cover before it hit," said Mike Crecelius, the emergency management director for the county.

Nearby, five tractor-trailers that had been traveling on Interstate 29 shortly before the tornado hit Thurman were overturned in the high winds. One truck driver was seriously injured and taken to a hospital with a perforated lung, Mr. Crecelius said.

Forecasters issued their first warning on Friday, predicting a tornado outbreak that had the potential of being a "high-end, life-threatening event" for a swath of the Midwest.

Officials said the enhanced language was developed because of the large number of deaths from tornadoes across the country in recent years. "This is one of the lessons learned from the various deadly outbreaks of tornadoes last year," Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for the National Weather Service, said Sunday in a telephone interview.

One warning in Wichita, Kan., on Saturday said, "This is a life-threatening situation. You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter."

The system will be tested for another six months before National Weather Service officials decide whether to continue or expand it."

"Midnight Tornado" in Woodward:

The deadly Woodward, OK tornado struck around midnight! That's evidence of just how strong this weather system was. Even in tornado alley, it's rare to get strong (in this case EF3) tornadoes at night.

Source: Norman, OK NWS