Yesterday's maximum temperature topped out at only 35 degrees at International Falls, which was four degrees below the average high of 39. The high on Saturday at the Falls was 58 degrees. In the Twin Cities the afternoon temperature failed to reach 60 for the first time since we settled for 52 degrees on March 12th. It was a good run well above normal temperatures.
Clouds are expected to prevail today. The maximum temperature in the Twin Cities may struggle to reach 50 degrees with periods of showers and thundershowers. Showers and thunder spread from central to northern Minnesota this evening. Many places are still short of precipitation for the month of March.
Here's a look at the potential precipitation totals for the next couple of days.
Due to the low dew points expected to hold over northeast Minnesota today and tonight, some of the precipitation is likely to occur as freezing rain. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been posted for a sliver of the Arrowhead Region for tonight. Freezing rain will coat tree limbs and pwer lines during the cover of darkness.
Details can be found by clicking on this statement from the National Weather Service in Duluth.
Strong winds are on tap as a low pressure system winds up over the upper Midwest later today. The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for portions of western Minnesota, where gusts could top 35 mph. Brisk winds are expected across much of the state on Tuesday as well.
The NAM depicts a strong surge of warm air as the low tracks towards International Falls at midday on Tuesday. This pressure pattern illustrates the potential for wind gusts to 40 mph in southern Minnesota.
It appears the trend continues to be our friend as we head into April. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center posted their April temperature outlook earlier this month. They sometimes refresh this outlook on the last day of the month.
Precipitation outlook from NOAA for April.
The normal maximum/minimum for the Twin Cities on April 1st are 50/31 degrees.
A strengthening low pressure system in southwest North Dakato is ushering in milder temperatures through Nebraska into South Dakota. The leading surge of warmer air, depicted as a warm front, ignited showers and thundershowers in southwest Minnesota. Thundershowers are expected early this evening in eastern Minnesota.
Snapshot of radar at 330PM.
The regional short term model from the Chanhassen NWS Office presents this simulation of radar reflectivity at 7PM.
Winds have been gusting as high as 45 mph in western Minnesota (Worthington) this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect overnight and into Tuesday for southern and central Minnesota. Winds are not expected to ease off until late Tuesday.
Overnight, the rain advancing north will meet up with colder and drier air at the surface. This will result in freezing rain in far northern and northeast Minnesota. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been posted for a small corner of the Arrowhead.
Milder air will be positioned over southern Minnesota on Tuesday ahead of the advancing low pressure system. Temperatures are likely to soar well above normal once again.
The Twin Cities should top out near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon. But the strong winds will detract from enjoying an outdoor lunch,
If you enjoy tracking the records from the unseasonably warm spell the last couple of weeks, the Chanhassen NWS Office has updated the details of the record warmth and dew points.
Our friends at the State Climate Office shared this nugget of information with regard to the outlook for frost in the months of April and May based on their study of historically warm temperatures in March. Using the past as our window to the future, it is apparent that a warm March offers us no obvious indication about when the final spring frost will occur. 139 years of Twin Cities temperature data were reviewed. The final spring frost can occur as late as mid May.
The GFS model that extends out two weeks paints a picture of more changes in the wind in the first week or so of April. Perhaps a reversal of the warm weather that we've enjoyed? We'll have to wait and see.