Updraft: March 26, 2012 Archive

Changes blowing in the wind

Posted at 3:25 PM on March 26, 2012 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Freezing rain, Frost, Spring 2012, Warm fronts

A strengthening low pressure system in southwest North Dakato is ushering in milder temperatures through Nebraska into South Dakota. The leading surge of warmer air, depicted as a warm front, ignited showers and thundershowers in southwest Minnesota. Thundershowers are expected early this evening in eastern Minnesota.

Snapshot of radar at 330PM.

The regional short term model from the Chanhassen NWS Office presents this simulation of radar reflectivity at 7PM.

Winds have been gusting as high as 45 mph in western Minnesota (Worthington) this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect overnight and into Tuesday for southern and central Minnesota. Winds are not expected to ease off until late Tuesday.

Overnight, the rain advancing north will meet up with colder and drier air at the surface. This will result in freezing rain in far northern and northeast Minnesota. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been posted for a small corner of the Arrowhead.

Milder air will be positioned over southern Minnesota on Tuesday ahead of the advancing low pressure system. Temperatures are likely to soar well above normal once again.

The Twin Cities should top out near 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon. But the strong winds will detract from enjoying an outdoor lunch,

If you enjoy tracking the records from the unseasonably warm spell the last couple of weeks, the Chanhassen NWS Office has updated the details of the record warmth and dew points.

Our friends at the State Climate Office shared this nugget of information with regard to the outlook for frost in the months of April and May based on their study of historically warm temperatures in March. Using the past as our window to the future, it is apparent that a warm March offers us no obvious indication about when the final spring frost will occur. 139 years of Twin Cities temperature data were reviewed. The final spring frost can occur as late as mid May.

The GFS model that extends out two weeks paints a picture of more changes in the wind in the first week or so of April. Perhaps a reversal of the warm weather that we've enjoyed? We'll have to wait and see.
CE

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