Updraft

Updraft: March 19, 2012 Archive

"Maydream" continues: More records; Showers increase; 3rd earliest ice out

Posted at 8:30 AM on March 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter/spring 2011

13 new temperatures records (lows & highs) in the past 9 days at MSP Airport, St. Cloud & Eau Claire

7 high temperature records in the past 9 days

6 new record warm minimums in the past week

Earliest 70s in 12 years last week

Earliest 80 on record Saturday in the metro

Ice out on most smaller metro lakes including Calhoun, Harriet & Phalen Sunday

3rd earliest ice out on 'Tonka likely today or tomorrow

Shower & T-Storm chances increase today, especially tonight

Spring begins at 12:14am Tuesday

10 lh out.jpg
An "ice free" Lake Harriet Sunday

Unprecedented string of March records:

"Expect the unprecedented" is the new phrase when it comes to climate changes in Minnesota. We're breakin' stuff in the weather lab again today, with more records on the way. The warm weather hits just keep on comin' this March.

11 tc records.PNG

11 mar 2.PNG

Ice out: 3rd earliest on record at Tonka today?

Ice went out on many metro area lakes Sunday including:

Calhoun
Harriet
Nokomis
Phalen
Grevais
Keller

11 ice out.PNG

Tonka was still clinging to a stubborn broken sheet of ice last night, but it looks like it will go fast today or tomorrow.

11 tonka ss 1.jpg
Tonka clings to ice at sunset Sunday

11 Bug ice.jpg
Bug Island on Lake Minnetonka mixes with open water patches Sunday evening.

If ice out is recoded on Tonka today or tomorrow (March 19th or 20th) it will be the 3rd earliest on record according to the Freshwater Society.

10 ice out.PNG

Shower chances increase through tonight:

If the weekend felt like June & July, it will feel more like May today...with chances for April showers growing through tonight. The rain will increase in coverage and intensity tonight, with chances for local downpours as the system moves north into Minnesota.

Coverage looks spotty, but some lucky areas could pick up .30" to .50"+ by early Tuesday. A second wave of showers may move in Tuesday night.

11 rw.PNG

There is a slight risk for severe weather, primarily south of Minnesota.

11 spc.gif

The rest of the week looks mild for March...more like April with 60s hangin' in there.

Enjoy!

PH

(3 Comments)

Nowcast Update: Wathing 2nd batch of storms heading for east metro

Posted at 8:37 PM on March 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

Update 8:35pm:

Keeping an eye on 2nd batch of storms heading for east metro. Expect more downpours and gusty winds possible. Not severe yet but still watching.

11 2 WUNIDS_map.gif


Update 7:50pm:

Line of storms and warnings now shifting through north and east metro. No damage reports in metro so far, but plenty of lightning, downpours and gusty winds 40 to 50 mph.

11 wunder 2.PNG
Radar image credit: Weather Underground

Update 7:15 pm:

Line of storms has intensifed moving into metro. Warnings issued.

11 WUNIDS_map.gif
Radar image credit: Weather Underground

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MNC003-019-053-139-171-200045-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0003.120320T0012Z-120320T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 708 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CHASKA...OR ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLYMOUTH...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PLYMOUTH...
MINNEAPOLIS...
CHASKA...
CARVER...
SHAKOPEE...
MARYSTOWN...
COLOGNE...
PRIOR LAKE...
SAVAGE...
WACONIA...
EDEN PRAIRIE...
CHANHASSEN...
VICTORIA...
ST BONIFACIUS...
SHOREWOOD...
COON RAPIDS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


The storms some caused damage as they rolled through Le Sueur County south of the metro.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROOFS RIPPED OFF BETWEEN LAKE ELYSIAN AND LAKE FRANCIS. PUBLIC REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO.

79 degrees in the Twin Cities Monday...the 8th record high in 10 days.

11 nw.png

Low pressure moving into Minnesota overnight is triggering scattered showers and a few T-Storms.

Coverage will be spotty as storms move quickly from south toward the north.

Scattered showers & storms are going in western & southern MN, and the best window for rain in the metro appears to be between about 6-7pm tonight through about midnight.

A few of the stronger storms may contain heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds, but little severe weather is expected.

There is a slight risk for severe storms tonight in western Minnesota.

11 risk.PNG

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

PH

(1 Comments)

Season's 1st severe shot: Wind, rain, damage; 3rd earliest ice out on 'Tonka?

Posted at 9:15 PM on March 19, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Ice out, Severe weather

1st severe weather warnings and damage reports of 2012 Monday evening

Possible tornado near Elysian in Le Sueur County just south of the metro?

.52" much needed rainfall at MSP Airport

.56" at Flying Cloud in Eden Prairie

1"+ in parts of southern Minnesota

12,000+ without power at the height of the storm

11 outages.PNG
Source: Xcel Energy

Unsettled & showery - April like weather the rest of this week

It's here.

Ice out on Minnetonka and severe storms in on the same day in March? Ugh...

If Monday's first shot of severe weather coming on March 19th is any indication, it's going to be a long, busy summer in the weather lab.

The line of storms rolled though Monday evening with downpours, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and bright flashes of lightning.

There are a few reports of damage.

11 tweet.PNG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
946 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 PM TSTM WND DMG EAGLE BEND 46.17N 95.03W
03/19/2012 TODD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE TO BARN AND A FEW TREES SNAPPED OFF.

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG CARVER 44.76N 93.63W
03/19/2012 CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

DAMAGE TO GAS STATION IN DOWNTOWN CARVER. ROOF OF GAS
PUMPS HAD SHEET METAL RIPPED OFF.

0615 PM TSTM WND GST GLENVILLE 43.57N 93.28W
03/19/2012 M56.00 MPH FREEBORN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

FORTY FOOT EVERGREEN TREE TOPPLED.

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROOFS RIPPED OFF BETWEEN LAKE ELYSIAN AND LAKE
FRANCIS. PUBLIC REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0642 PM TSTM WND DMG ELYSIAN 44.20N 93.68W
03/19/2012 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO SMALL BOATS FLIPPED OVER AT LAKE ELYSIAN.


The good news? I picked up .a much needed .40" of rainfall at the weather lab. As much as .50" to 1"+ fell over much of the metro and southern MN.

Tonka ice out Monday?

Still awaiting official announcement from the Freshwater Society, but to my eyes it looks like Lake Minnetonka was ice free and navigable Monday afternoon.

11 Tonka 1.jpg
St. Louis Bay looking west out to the "main" lower lake on Minnetonka ice free Monday afternoon.

Photo credit: Paul Huttner

If true, it's the 3rd earliest ice out on record for the big west metro lake, and the earliest in 12 years.

10 ice out.PNG
Source: Freshwater Society

Look for an unsettled April like week with temps in the 60s and occasional bouts of (much needed) showers.

PH

(3 Comments)
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