Updraft: March 8, 2012 Archive

Northern Lights possible overnight: A shot at 60 by Saturday!

Posted at 5:01 PM on March 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Astronomy, Winter/spring 2011

Solar Storm Update:

Well if you think forecasting weather on Earth is tough, try predicting space weather and auroras!

Here's an update from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center: (How do I get a job there?)

2012-03-08 22:11 UTC Geomagnetic Storm in Progress, Solar Radiation Storm Continues

"The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8). So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming. As the event progresses, that field will continue to change. Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, but are starting to show the first signs of decay. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant."

Bottom Line? There is still the possibility of auroras tonight over Minnesota skies. But you're going to have to battle clouds again early tonight.

There are no guarantees, but the best bet is to look north in a dark sky away from city lights if possible. If it happens it could last a few minutes, or a few hours. It all depends on the nature and duration of the storm.

Here's a video update from NOAA: Joe Kunches with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center further explains this week's Solar Storm.

So what is spaceweather all about anyway? It's truly amazing how far we've come in monitoring and understanding solar storms in the past decade.

Robert Rutledge, a forecaster at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, discusses how NOAA monitors space weather events, models their impact on Earth, and works with commercial sectors to protect lives and property.

More from NOAA:

Strong Solar Storm Impacting Earth

Solar Storm

A solar flare erupted from the sun on March 6, 2012. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center continues to monitor and forecast this solar event along with potential impacts to satellites, power grids and communication and navigation systems.

Event Impacts:

"Power Grid: Weak power grid fluctuations are possible.

Aurora (Northern Lights): The Aurora Forecast from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center depicts how far away viewers on the ground could see the Aurora."

And from NOAA's Space Weather Center Facebook page:

"A lot of details to say, there is a strong field in the cloud that has passed, but it has been opposite of what would be needed to cause strong storming. Stay tuned, this CME is not done and we may yet get the magnetic field needed to cause higher levels of geomagnetic storming."

Warming trend kicks in Friday & Saturday!

It will start to feel a bit more like spring by Friday afternoon. By Saturday, you may be shedding layers and jumping on the bike!

Winds shift into the south Friday, and a full blown onslaught of mild air pushes in again by Saturday.

Temps will push 40 in southern Minnesota Friday afternoon...and may hit 60 on Saturday. Looking at the 850mb temps (5,000 feet up) Saturday leads me to believe we have a real shot at 60 again for the metro fr the second time this week!

Sunday Showers?

A system pulling up from the south should spread rain showers into Minnesota Sunday. Best timing right now looks like late afternoon and evening.

Warmest March 6th in 12 years:

If you thought Tuesday was warm in Minnesota...you're right. Check out the details from my MPR colleague and UM Climate Guru Dr. Mark Seeley in his excellent weekly Weather Talk blog post.

Topic: Warm March 6th

"March 6th was the warmest statewide in 12 years. Many observers reported
daytime temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal. Several locations
reached the 50s and 60s F. Among the warmest spots in the state were:
68 F at Minneota; 67 F at Preston; 66 F at Winona; 65 F at Albert Lea;
64 F at Auston, Caledonia, and La Crescent; 63 F at Rochester, Amboy,
Winnebago, and Fairmont; 62 F at Pipestone; and 60 F at MSP.

In addition the warm, moist southerly winds brought record setting dewpoints
for the Twin Cities, reaching 42 degrees F on March 6th and 45 degrees F
on March 7th, before cooler and drier air settled in. The warm air mass
brought plenty of fog to places as well."

Adios La Nina:

From CPC's Montly ENSO Discussion released Thursday:

"A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to return during March-May 2012 and to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 6). The rapid weakening of the negative surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during February 2012, combined with the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, lends support to the return of ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. Therefore, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012."

Stay tuned!

PH