Warmest winter of our lifetime so far! A shot at 40 today? Arctic Friday

Posted at 8:22 AM on February 9, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

2nd warmest winter on record so far in the metro

134 years since we've seen a warmer winter (1877-'78)

3 sub zero nights so far this winter at MSP Airport

30 nights of sub zero in an "average" winter

40 today for western Minnesota and maybe the metro

Arctic front tonight & Friday

Sub zero in northern Minnesota tonight & Saturday morning

Near zero in southern Minnesota by Saturday morning

30s return next week!

Warmest winter in our lifetime:

It's been 134 years since we've seen a winter this warm! Details from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Balmy Winter in the Twin Cities 2011-2012

"The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on. February has continued the above normal temperatures and so far from December 1 to February 7 the average temperature in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. If meteorological winter finished on February 7, the winter of 2010-2011 would be in second place behind the winter of 1877-78. February would have to continue to remain much above normal for the Meteorological Winter to finish second warmest. As of February 7, the average temperature in the Twin Cities for the month of February is 29.9 degrees."

Twin Cities Warmest Meteorological Winters

Top Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperatures (Twin Cities 1872-2012)

Rank Year Avg. Temp
--------------------------
1.) 1877-1878 29.0 F
2.) 2011-2012 27.0 F*
3.) 1930-1931 26.9 F
4.) 2001-2002 26.8 F
5.) 1997-1998 25.9 F
6.) 1986-1987 25.8 F
7.) 1982-1983 24.0 F
8.) 1991-1992 23.5 F
9.) 1943-1944 23.5 F
10.) 1920-1921 23.2 F
11.) 1999-2000 23.1 F

*As of February 7

2nd fewest sub zero nights too!

"The Twin Cities International Airport has only seen three nights that have dipped below zero for the winter of 2011-2012. That means that this winter has the second fewest sub-zero nights on record back to 1872. The coldest Minimum Temperature of the 2011-2012 season so far in the Twin Cities is -11. This is in a five-way tie for the third warmest winter minimum. The warmest winter minimum is -3 in the winter of 2001-02."

Twin Cities Least Number of Below Zero Minimums in a Winter
Rank Year Number of days below zero (Twin Cities 1872-2012)
-------------------------------
1.) 2001-2002 2
2.) 2011-2012 3*
3.) 1877-1878 4
4.) 1930-1931 5
5.) 2005-2006 6
6.) 1881-1882 7
6.) 1986-1987 7
8.) 1982-1983 8
9.) 1920-1921 9
10.) 1997-1998 10

*As of February 7

"January finished the 8th warmest in the Twin Cities with records going back to 1872. The average temperature was 23.3 degrees, or 7.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for December 2011 and January 2012 together was 25.6 degrees, making it the 4th warmest December and January on record for the Twin Cities with only 1877-78, 2001-02 and 1913-14 being warmer. The average for 1877-78 was 27.8 degrees."

Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.
Twin Cities Daily records broken or tied during December and January.

Date Record Value Old Rec. Year
----------------------------------------------------
Dec. 26, 2011 Maximum 52 51 1936
Jan. 06, 2012 Warm Low 37 35 1928
Jan. 09, 2012 Maximum 49 49 2002 (tie)
Jan. 09, 2012 Warm Low 34 34 2002 (tie)
Jan. 10, 2012 Maximum 52 49 1990

Mild ahead of arctic front today!

We'll warm quickly today for several reasons.

1) Stronger February sun & higher sun angle

2) Bare ground-lack of snow cover

3) Dry air mass heats easily

Chilly weekend; 30s again next week?

Get ready to ride another temp roller coaster. Temps plunge this weekend, only to recover next week!

Enjoy this last mild day for a while!

PH

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Comments (3)

Hi Paul,

Thanks for another informative post--especially about dry air masses heating up faster.

Have you heard the news coming out of Germany about a new book on CO2 titled "Die Kalte Sonne"(The Cold Sun)? One of the authors, Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt, is one of the fathers of Germany's Green movement. He is not a skeptic, but maybe a luckwarmist. Sounds like the book is causing a lot of discussion; the book is #1 on amazon.de.

Here are some original source links in German:

http://www.kaltesonne.de/

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/globale-erwaermung/die-co2-luege-klima-katastrophe-ist-panik-mache-der-politik-22467268.bild.html

Also, the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel has an interview with Dr. Vahrenholt here (in English):

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,813814,00.html

I have not read these, but maybe you guys can comment on this development.

Posted by Lars | February 9, 2012 10:51 AM

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Has there been any thought to moving the official temperature station from the airport to somewhere like Norwood/Young America? I live in Shakopee, and our temperature is usually about 2-3 degerees colder (in the winter) because of the heat island affect around the metro.

Posted by Martin Michael | February 9, 2012 1:57 PM

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How reliable is the data from the 1880s?
Were measurements taken with precise instruments and methods?

Posted by Baris Seker | February 9, 2012 3:34 PM

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