Thaw ahead today
38 - 40 degrees in much of southern Minnesota this afternoon
Friday clipper may bring some snow
Major model differences on Friday's system
Cooler weekend ahead
Weird weather dreams - Is this winter affecting our collective (and the weatherman's) psyche?
The "thaw" is on:
It's good to see the sun this morning!
A west wind is blowing in and "mixing out" the fog & low level moisture from snow melt today. The result is more sunshine, and temps will respond accordingly.
Highs should easily reach the upper 30s today, and we may even see a few eager bank thermometers flashing 40 this afternoon.
The milder temps and ever increasing late January sun angle should help melt some snow today.
Friday Clipper? Models disagree
There's an old joke about 10 meteorologists in a room coming out with 10 different forecasts. I've been in that room before. Apparently most of the computer models have heard that joke.
Two of the more reliable models we look at (and there are 15 to 20 available) paint very different scenarios regarding a potential Alberta Clipper Friday.
The NAM says the system will zip through quickly Friday morning with little more than a dusting.
The GFS says it could snow for several hours and lay down as much as 2" of snow for the southern half of Minnesota.
At this point I'd say the truth may lie somewhere in between, but let's look at the model runs this morning and later today and see where it goes.
"So ya wanna be a weatherman huh?"
Colder weekend: A shot at 0 Sunday morning?
One thing all models agree on is it's going to get colder this weekend.
As arctic high pressure blows in Saturday, temps will drop below zero in northern Minnesota, and may approach zero in the metro early Sunday morning.
The cold air lasts about 36 hours, before the next warming trend kicks in and leads to another potential thaw early next week.
Weird winter weather dreams:
Okay this winter is getting really weird.
I had a vivid dream last night that I was doing a live weather hit (broadcast) from Lake Mille Lacs during an ice fishing tournament. There was open water, and I fell in and swam to shore. The water was almost warm, and some people helped me get out and get dry and said the water temp was 68 degrees, in January.
Sign of a twisted weather mind in a surreal winter? Yeah.
Who knows? But it's clear this winter is may end up being the mildest, shortest, most snow starved winter in my lifetime. So far anyway.
In January 2010, I had a dream that I was walking around Lake Calhoun but in my dream I knew it was mid-March. I was so surprised that there was no snow on the ground, and the lake was already thawed. You could see the wind making waves on the water and I was so happy to see that.
And that was the year we had an early thaw; the last snow was, I think, in late January...there was no snow on the ground by mid/late February, and Lake Calhoun ice-out was in mid-March.
What time tonight (Thursday p.m.-Friday a.m.) should I look for a possible Aurora Borealis display? Thanks!