Updraft: January 26, 2012 Archive

Thursday thaw; Friday clipper? Weird weather dreams

Posted at 8:54 AM on January 26, 2012 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Sun returns!

Thaw ahead today

38 - 40 degrees in much of southern Minnesota this afternoon

Friday clipper may bring some snow

Major model differences on Friday's system

Cooler weekend ahead

Weird weather dreams - Is this winter affecting our collective (and the weatherman's) psyche?

A rare bright sunny morning at the Weather Lab today!

The "thaw" is on:

It's good to see the sun this morning!

A west wind is blowing in and "mixing out" the fog & low level moisture from snow melt today. The result is more sunshine, and temps will respond accordingly.

Highs should easily reach the upper 30s today, and we may even see a few eager bank thermometers flashing 40 this afternoon.

The milder temps and ever increasing late January sun angle should help melt some snow today.

Friday Clipper? Models disagree

There's an old joke about 10 meteorologists in a room coming out with 10 different forecasts. I've been in that room before. Apparently most of the computer models have heard that joke.

Two of the more reliable models we look at (and there are 15 to 20 available) paint very different scenarios regarding a potential Alberta Clipper Friday.

The NAM says the system will zip through quickly Friday morning with little more than a dusting.

The GFS says it could snow for several hours and lay down as much as 2" of snow for the southern half of Minnesota.

At this point I'd say the truth may lie somewhere in between, but let's look at the model runs this morning and later today and see where it goes.

"So ya wanna be a weatherman huh?"

Colder weekend: A shot at 0 Sunday morning?

One thing all models agree on is it's going to get colder this weekend.

As arctic high pressure blows in Saturday, temps will drop below zero in northern Minnesota, and may approach zero in the metro early Sunday morning.

The cold air lasts about 36 hours, before the next warming trend kicks in and leads to another potential thaw early next week.

Weird winter weather dreams:

Okay this winter is getting really weird.

I had a vivid dream last night that I was doing a live weather hit (broadcast) from Lake Mille Lacs during an ice fishing tournament. There was open water, and I fell in and swam to shore. The water was almost warm, and some people helped me get out and get dry and said the water temp was 68 degrees, in January.

Sign of a twisted weather mind in a surreal winter? Yeah.

Who knows? But it's clear this winter is may end up being the mildest, shortest, most snow starved winter in my lifetime. So far anyway.

PH

(2 Comments)

Friday Clipper; Sky shows; Optimistic spring flood outlook released

Posted at 6:52 PM on January 26, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

40 degrees Thursday at MSP Airport

+16 degrees vs. average

7th day at or above 40 degrees in the metro this January!

.1" NAM model snowfall output Friday at MSP

3.5" GFS model snowfall output Friday at MSP

Coating to 2" weather Lab snowfall range forecast Friday for metro and much of southern Minnesota.

3 to 4 Hassle factor with Friday's snowfall on a scale of 1-10

Venus & moon dazzle in southwest evening sky

Possible aurora overnight in Minnesota

Colder weekend ahead

Below average flood risk this spring on Minnesota rivers

Minnesota: 7th mildest January on record?

Thursday's 40 degree high was the 7th day this month of 40+ degree warmth at MSP. I can't remember a January with that many 40 degree days.

Temps are running about 7 degrees above average for January. According to Mark Seeley, this will likely go down as the 7th warmest January on record in Minnesota.

This comes after the 2nd warmest October-December period in the metro.

The warm weather hits just keep on comin' in the "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12.

Friday Clipper: Major model bust potential

"Two weather forecast models walk into a bar...."

I digress. But I'm hoping the joke isn't on weather forecasters Friday. Two of our main forecast models, The NAM and GFS, are painting very different pictures for snowfall Friday.

The usually aggressive NAM minimizes any snow accumulation to well under an inch. The usually conservative GFS is hammering this system and cranking out 3.5" of snowfall at MSP.

Other models and ensemble products take the middle road, and I think they're onto something.

I am leaning toward a coating to 2" range for much of southern Minnesota Friday.

Snow should develop in western Minnesota by 6-7am Friday. The best window for snow in the metro appears to be between 9am and 3pm.

Lower "impact" snow?

This may end up being a lower impact snowfall that some of our previous systems this week.

-Midday timing means it will fall mostly between rush hours

-Temps near 30 to 32 degrees - some melting will occur leaving mostly wet roadways

-Snowfall rates may allow road chemicals to keep up

Bottom line? Expect some snowfall Friday, but it will hopefully be a manageable nuisance type snow.

Sky shows?

Check out the moon and Venus in the southwest evening sky as we head into the weekend.

Another solar burst may trigger more northern lights overnight. Best viewing is always away from city lights looking north. Timing of auroras is random.

NWS Spring Flood Outlook: Below average

We all may be breathing a sigh of relief after two crazy spring flood seasons n Minnesota.

Last falls drought and light winter snowfall have lead NWS forecasters to go easy with predictions for below average flood potential on Minnesota's river systems this spring.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS AT THE END OF JANUARY
SHOW THAT THE CURRENT RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO A SNOW
MELT IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

-MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM ST CLOUD TO RED WING
-MINNESOTA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
-ST CROIX RIVER
-CHIPPEWA RIVER IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

WITH RIVER LEVELS STEADILY FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY
OF FLOODING INTO APRIL.

WHILE PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS...BASED ON THE CURRENT SNOW
PACK AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...DO NOT PROJECT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THIS SPRING...MUCH OF THE SNOW SEASON STILL REMAINS.
HENCE SNOWPACK CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
ALSO...AS WITH EVERY SPRING MELT SEASON...ICE JAM
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.

EVEN WITH THE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK AT THIS
TIME...RESIDENTS THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING ARE URGED
TO MAINTAIN OR CONSIDER FLOOD INSURANCE. HEAVY RAINS
WHICH CAN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ARE
ALWAYS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER
MONTHS. SINCE THERE IS A 30 DAY DELAY FOR A FLOOD
INSURANCE POLICY TO TAKE EFFECT...MAINTAINING FLOOD
INSURANCE JUST AS YOU WOULD HOME OWNERS INSURANCE IS
ALWAYS ENCOURAGED.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE PROVIDED ON FEBRUARY 16 2012.

That's the good side of a drought.

The bad side? This could be one of the worst spring grassfire seasons in recent memory.

Let's hope timely spring rains can abate the fire threat and give farmers, lawns, lakes and rivers a shot of much needed moisture this spring!

PH