Updraft: January 25, 2012 Archive

AM rush hour: Early snow showers enough for slick spots!

Posted at 4:25 AM on January 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Weak upper wave causing snow showers early this morning

Light snow in much of southern Minnesota through 9am

Slick roads in places for AM rush in metro

Coating to 1" possible in metro and southern Minnesota

Sunshine returns by noon in most areas

30s thaw in progress later this afternoon!

MNDOT traffic cam shows snowy 494 at Baker Road in Minnetonka

-Latest Twin Cities radar

-MNDOT Traffic Cams and info

Upper air disturbance = some snow for AM rush:

It's weak, but it's enough to kick off a band of snow showers this morning. Look for light, to in some cases moderate snow showers this morning from St. Cloud through the metro to Rochester and Eau Claire.

You won't be counting inches, but even a coating to an inch can make for some slick spots today on your morning drive.

Sun returns: Another "January Thaw: ahead!

Remember that old saying "If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes?"

That's what we may be living today as AM snow gives way to PM sunshine and milder temps. We should crack the thawing point by late afternoon.

Cooler weekend; but "Thawmageddon" ahead?

Another cold front will return us to realty with teens and 20s this weekend. After that, the maps look favorable for more thaws next week, including the potential for a really BIG one along about February 7-10th.

It's too early to be fully confident, but several model runs have hinted at a major thaw, with temps possibly returning to the 40s..and yes even 50 if we lose enough snow.

What a weird winter...

Stay tuned!

PH

"Thawmageddon" Ahead? Mild pattern returns next 2 weeks

Posted at 8:08 AM on January 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

+6.6 degrees January temps vs. average at MSP

Sun returns: Another "January Thaw: ahead!

Remember that old saying "If you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes?"

That's what we may be living today as AM snow gives way to mixed PM sunshine and milder temps. We should crack the thawing point by late afternoon.

Cooler weekend; but "Thawmageddon" ahead?

Another cold front will return us to realty with teens and 20s this weekend. After that, the maps look favorable for more thaws next week, including the potential for a really BIG one along about February 7-10th.

It's too early to be fully confident, but several model runs have hinted at a major thaw, with temps possibly returning to the 40s..and yes even 50 in western Minnesota if we lose enough snow.

What a weird winter...

Stay tuned!

PH

(3 Comments)

Roller Coaster Forecast: Thaws & cold snaps ahead

Posted at 5:30 PM on January 25, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

+14.3 degrees vs. average at MSP January 1-11th

-0.2 degrees vs. average January 12-24th (near average)

+6.6 degrees in January overall so far at MSP Airport

8th consecutive month of above average warmth in Minnesota!

Temperature roller coaster ahead:

Get ready to ride the Minnesota Express.

We're moving into what meteorologists call a "high amplitude jet stream pattern" the next few weeks. The translation means big swings in temperature for Minnesota.

The jet stream has been mostly "zonal" this winter...meaning straight from east to west. It has also been displaced fairly far north for most of the winter, and that's why we've seen such mild temps.

Lately the jet has shown more valleys and ridges, and that's enabled colder air to come south fomr Canada. This is illustrated in temperature data for MSP so far in January.

The first 11 days of the month brought temps and incredible +14 degrees vs. average in the metro and most of Minnesota. Then the jet dipped south, and the season's first sub zero air arrived. Temps since then have run almost right on average overall.

The dipsy doodle jet stream pattern looks to be very "progressive" over the next two weeks. This should allow ridges to build up and mild Pacific air to return, punctuated by brief cold intrusions form Canada.

We get out first thaw this week, then a shot of colder air moves in this weekend. Temps will dip below zero up north this weekend, and it appears to me we'll have a shot at getting close to zero Sunday morning in the metro.

The next thaw rolls in next week, when temps could push 40 in southern Minnesota and possibly the metro by Tuesday. The following week could feature big temps swings between mild and colder air.

The one factor that's different this time is that we do have some snow cover. Snow melt adds moisture ot the lower atmosphere, and that can keep more clouds around...possibly fogging us up at night and limiting temp rises during the day.

Overall temps look to average out warmer over the next two weeks.

This would continue the now 8 month long trend of significantly above average temps in Minnesota.

Could that signal an early spring, and one of the mildest, shortest winters on record?

Stay tuned...

PH

(1 Comments)