Posted at 8:43 AM on October 24, 2011
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall
Mild Monday starts the week:
Today should be the warmest day this week in Minnesota. This will be the day to get out and rake a few more leaves, take a bike ride or stroll or get in that last round of golf.
64 degrees forecast high for the metro and southern Minnesota today.
53 degrees average high Monday
+11 degrees vs. average if we make 64 degrees today!
Cooler front, spotty rain:
A gathering low pressure system will slide south of Minnesota Tuesday. The system will bring cooler winds, and a chance of spotty showers. Most of the rain may form east of Minnesota into Wisconsin. Right now the models are keeping any precip on the lighter side for Minnesota, with totals generally less than .10".
A cooler push of dry air late this week will return temps close to normal Wednesday thorugh Friday. Highs will hover near 50 with lows in the 30s.
The maps are hinting at moderating temps again by the weekend, with mild air pushing in by Sunday and into Halloween. It's still a week out, but Halloween still looks potentially mild and dry, with a high in the upper 50s to near 60. Trick or treat temps should be in the 50s!
Top 10 warmest October?
+ 8.3 degrees vs. average for October temps at MSP through Sunday!
58.8 degrees - average temperature so far in October at MSP Airport
59.3 degrees - warmest October on record in 1947
This week's cool snap will bring our October average temperature a little closer to reality, but it still looks like this mild month may go down as one of the 10 warmest Octobers on record.
Depending on how this week plays out, it looks like we may end up with an average october temp of around 55 degrees. That would be good enough for the 8th warmest October on record at MSP Airport.
OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
NWSFO.. MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL MINNESOTA
MODERN DAY RECORDS
2011 Temps: A Jekyll & Hyde year
2011 has shown some interesting temperature trends in Minnesota. Basically the year started cool with the first 5 montsh below average, Then in June somebody flipped the heat switch on, and the past 5 months have been significantly warmer than average.
We can probably point to the signature of a fading La Nina in spring as one possible reason for the shift.
For the year MSP Airport is running about .85 degrees warmer than average in 2011.
Temps vs. average at MSP Airport in 2011
Oct + 5.0 (estimated)
October rainfall deficits are over an inch now in much of Minnesota, and 3 to 4" below average since August 1st. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the effects.
A full 80% of Minnesota is now "abnormally dry" or in various stages of drought.
2011 Growing Season Ends: 172 days at MSP Airport
May 3rd - last 32 at MSP this spring
October 21st - First 32 at MSP this fall
172 days 2011 growing season
161 days long term average growing season at MSP Airport
171 days growing season at MSP in 2010
Friday's official low of 32 degrees ended the growing season at MSP Airport. It wasn't "killing frost" in many areas, the weather lab roses are still blooming on October 24th!