Updraft: October 6, 2011 Archive

Pattern Change: Last 80 Today? Rain returns next 2 weeks!

Posted at 7:30 AM on October 6, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Record

It looks like our taste of July in October may be about to end.

The weather maps are showing signs of a major (cooler & wetter) pattern change in the next two weeks!

October Hot Front:

+10.6 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport so far in October!

80 degrees or warmer 4 of 5 days so far in October

88 degrees new record high Wednesday. (Breaks previous record of 87 set in 1879!)

LOCATION MAX TEMP/ MIN TEMP/ PCPN
DLH : DULUTH MN : 65 / 50 / 0.00/
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 79 / 50 / 0.00/
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 88 / 62 / 0.00/
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 85 / 55 / 0.00/
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 86 / 58 / 0.00/

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 85 / 54 / 0.00
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 58 / 52 / 0.00
HIB : HIBBING MN : 76 / 44 / 0.00
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 89 / 57 / 0.00

Hot, Gusty & Dusty Thursday: Season's last 80s?

It looks like we'll get one last warm, windy July like day Thursday in Minnesota. Temps should push into the 80s one more time.

The combination of high temps, low humidity and gusty winds will keep fire danger high one more day.

Realtive humidity will plunge into the 20% range by afternoon.

Winds will gust to over 25 mph in western Minnesota.

The fire danger extends southward to Kansas, according to SPC.

Season's last 80 degree day Thursday?

Say it's not so Paul! I know...I'm still in "October Denial" too.

But records show the likelihood of reaching 80 in Minnesota diminishes rapidly after the first week of October.

Some stats:

October 1st - average last 80 degree temp in the metro

October 11th - last 80 degree temp in 2010

September 19th - last 80 degree temp in 2009

September 26th - last 80 degree temp in 2008

October 7th - last 80 degree temp in 2007 and 2006

Looking at the maps, Thursday may be the last shot we have at hitting 80 for the season. For the record, I hope I'm wrong!

Major Pattern Change Ahead: 2" to 4" rainfall in the next 2 weeks?

The medium range maps look different today. The GFS is hinting, no shouting that a major pattern change may be on the way.

The first waves of scattered showers should arrive Friday into the weekend.

The NAM is cranking out .47" of rainfall through Saturday morning in two different waves.

If we get that much rain, it will be the most rainfall much of Minnesota has received in 53 days, since MSP Airport recorded 1.42" on August 16th!

The first showers may roll through Friday morning into midday. The second batch Friday night into early Saturday. Another wave may trigger more showers into the first half of Sunday.

After a break early next week, models suggest a much cooler and wetter weather pattern sets up shop over the Upper Midwest.

There could be several bouts of rain in the week after that, with models cranking out as much as 2"+ total for the metro and potentially 2"- 4" for drought stricken northeast Minnesota.

GFS Model: 2" to 4" rainfall potential in the Upper Midwest in the next 16 days.

Stay tuned, and prepare for a pattern change in the coming weeks!

PH