Taste of back-to-school weather

Posted at 6:47 AM on August 8, 2011 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Forecast models, Hurricanes, Rainfall

A cool front will sweep through the upper Midwest today and tonight bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front passes temperatures will fall to readings more typical of late August. Expect brisk northwest winds as well on Tuesday.

Here's the short term RUC model of surface temperatures, pressure pattern and winds for late afternoon. Note the region of sizzling hot temperatures in Kansas andOklahoma, extending into Texas.

Rainfall with this passing cool front will not be overly generous. NOAA's Envirnomental Predication Center paints this graphic of rainfall potential for the next twenty-four hours.

Texas continues to remain in severe drought. Some large areas of the Lone Star State are in exceptional drought.

With regard to tropical storm activity things are quiet for the moment. The peak of the hurricane season is approaching.

Historical record of seasonal tropical storms in the Atlantic from the Hurricane Center.

Early morning temperatures on Wednesday may be the coolest since the Twin Cities dipped below 60 degrees and recorded a low of 58 on June 28th. Check out this forecast for temperatures on Wednesday morning from the WRF model.

On this date in 2010 the Twin Cities Internationl Airport reached 96 degrees to tie the record high for August 8th set in 1894, repeated in 1914. The normal max/min for August 8th in the Twin Cities 82/63.

In case you missed it, Roseau experienced temperatures in the middle 60s for much of Saturday, with early Sunday morning temperatures in the upper 40s.

A rather isolated strong thunderstorm produced golf ball sized hail near Young America in Carver County on Saturday evening.
CE

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Comments (1)

This morning I mentioned Growing Degree Days when chatting with Steven John. I simplified the concept as the daily average temperature deviation from a base of 65. Thus a max of 80 and a min of 66 would be an average of 72. That would result in GDDs of 7.

It's not that easy, because different crops mature/respond with slightly different conditions. Here's the short definition from Wikipedia, Growing degree days (GDD), also called growing degree units (GDUs), are a heuristic tool in phenology. GDD are a measure of heat accumulation used by horticulturists, gardeners, and farmers to predict plant and pest development rates such as the date that a flower will bloom or a crop reach maturity.

A baseline of 65 degree (average temp) is used for cooling degree days.
Craig

Posted by Craig | August 8, 2011 8:17 AM

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