Updraft: August 23, 2011 Archive

"Major" Hurricane Irene to 135 mph? MN: Heat builds today

Posted at 8:59 AM on August 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

It looks like Hurricane Irene is ready to go into "beast mode"

All indications point ot rapid intensification of Irene over the next 24 to 48 hours. Irene will likely become an even more powerful Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds within 24 hours.

WSI loop of Irene Tuesday.

Here are the stats on Irene as of Tuesday morning:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...CORE OF IRENE HEADED TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Irene builds near Grand Turk Island Tuesday. (Image courtesy Accuweather)

Next 24 to 48 hours:

Irene is expected be in a favorable environment for rapid intensification over the next 2 days.

1) Irene is headed over mostly open water.

2) Surface waters are very warm (85 degrees+) along Irene's projected path.

3) Irene is expected to encounter very little or no wind shear in the next 48 hours.

All of these factors will allow Irene to strengthen rapidly. Satellite images show Irene is currently compact and concentric, and is likely to grow into a larger than average hurricane according to NHC.

"HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THAT COMBINATION...ALONG WITH
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR IRENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE
CLEARS THE EFFECTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND PROBABLY MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY
FORECASTS...AND CONVERSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES DEPICTED IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.3N 70.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.9N 71.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.9N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 24.3N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 31.5N 78.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND"

Track Forecast:

The most probable landfall scenario (and the official NHC track) crashes a powerful 120 mph Category 3 hurricane into the North Carolina coast near Wilmington and Cape Fear late Saturday or Sunday.

Official NHC track forecast.

Overall the suite of computer forecast models are in much tighter agreement today.

There is still some divergence as we head to the weekend. A few of the models suggest a track that could shift Irene to pass east of the Outer Banks.

Orcasystems track & intensity graphics

USA Impacts:

The sheer size of Irene may mean that Florida's east coast still gets brushed with strong tropical force or even hurricane force gusts, heavy surf and dangerous rip tides.

After the potential devastating landfall in the Carolinas, the northeast will have to be on alert for Irene.

Bottom Line: Irene is about to become a major and extremely dangerous hurricane.

Stay tuned for updates on track & intensity.

Minnesota: Stormy, hot Tuesday, Fresh front Wednesday

It was a mostly sleepless night at the weather lab and for many Minnesotans. When you're a weather guy, it's hard to sleep through thunder & lightning. Yes, I find myself glued to the radar screen at 3am sometimes. Today was one of those mornings.

A strong MCS raced southeast along I-94 from North Dakota overnight. The complex was in decay mode by the time it hit the metro around 5am.

The overnight storms were well forecast, and did leave a few severe weather reports in their wake.

MPX: 5 S Monticello [Wright Co, MN] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:15 AM CDT -- trees down on power lines.power out.

MPX: Minnetonka [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:25 AM CDT -- stoplight knocked over hen cr 5 and hen cr 60.

MPX: Bloomington [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:45 AM CDT -- 2 inch branch down and damaged gutter.

MPX: Buffalo [Wright Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M63 MPH at 04:59 AM CDT -- buffalo airport awos 0959z.

The sun is peeking out at the weather lab this morning, and PM sun should help boost temps to near 90 in much of southern Minnesota this afternoon.

The heat won't last this time, a fresh cool front will spill drier Canadian air south Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday's Fair opener still looks grand. Look for plenty of sun and a high in the low 80s.

Does it get any better for corn dogs & root beer?

PH

Irene track shifts east; MSP's warm summer numbers

Posted at 9:30 PM on August 23, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

A quick update on Hurricane Irene.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

As I said in my morning post, Irene is slated to intensify and become a major hurricane in the next 24 hours.

The one change worth noting is that Tuesday's forecast model trends are to push Irene further to the east. This may suggest that Irene will not produce a direct hit on the Carolina coast....it could be more of a glancing (but still substantial) blow on the Outer Banks.

Here are the latest spaghetti models.

This potentially good news for places like Myrtle Beach and Charleston may be bad news for News for Long Island and Cape Cod. Irene may spend more time over open ocean, and that could mean a potentially stronger hurricane if the tracks near New York City and Boston verify.

After Tuesday's rare earthquake on the East Coast, some areas may feel the forces of an earthquake and hurricane in the same week for the first time ever!

Stay tuned!

Warm summer, but no 90s so far in August?

Southern Minnesota flirted with 90 today, with plenty of humidity to boot. Believe it or not MSP and much of Minnesota has not recorded a 90 degree temperatures so far in August!

14 days at or above 90 at MSP Airport so far in 2011.

13 days on average at or above 90 each year at MSP.

25 days this summer with highs between 85 and 89 degrees at MSP this summer!

40 days at or above 85 degrees at MSP in 2011.

+1.1 degrees vs. average temps at MSP in June

+ 5.6 degrees vs. average in July

+2.2 degrees so far in August

+3 degrees vs. average at MSP sumemr of 2011!

It feels like it's been warm this summer, and the numbers support that.

With just one week left in "meteorological summer" we are running about 3 degrees warmer than average for the summer of 2011 in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota.

There's been plenty of beach weather, and after a chilly start, lake water temperatures finally warmed up into the lower 80s by mid-July in the south and well into the 70s up north.

To me the most interesting stat is the number of 90 degree days this year.

MSP Airport has recorded 14 days of 90 degree pus heat. That's only one above the annual average of 13 days. But we've had 6 days with a high of 89 degrees, and 25 days with highs between 85 and 89 degrees!

Add up all the days above 85 degrees (very warm by any standards) and we've (enjoyed?) a full 40 days at or above 85 degrees this summer.

Not bad!

"Fresh Front" Ahead Wednesday:

After a fairly sweaty Tuesday PM & night, a cool front will sweep away the hot humid air mass which made a brief cameo in Minnesota.

Look for a fresh northwest breeze building Wednesday.

Fresh gusty northwest winds Wednesday afternoon!

It will still be warm and feel like summer with highs in the 80s, but dew points will plunge into the 50s Wednesday afternoon and evening! It will fell downright comfy by sunset Wednesday night.

That sunset is now at 8:04pm, which is a full hour earlier (gulp) than in late June! You can see the boats on area lakes heading for shore about 90 minutes earlier than two months ago.

"Fair" Forecast: Good to great

Thursday's weather may be just "perfect" for the opening of the Minnesota State Fair. A weak bubble of high pressure overhead will bring all day sunshine, highs in the low 80s and comfy humidity with dew points in the upper 50s.

Does it get any better?

In fact the first few days of the fair may be ideal. It looks like the best shot of a thundery rainy day will come Sunday.

Here's the NWS version of the forecast.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Northwest wind at 7 mph becoming southwest.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. (Note: I would put the rain chances higher for Sunday...more like 50-60%)

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

It's always hard to believe State Fair time is here this week. It seems to come up fast every year, but also just at the point where maybe...just maybe, you think we've had a long enough summer that we can lazily drift into fall next month,

I'm convinced the Minnesota State Fair is the perfect "psychological tonic" for Minnesotans to begin the slow transition into school and the fall season.

We stroll lazily around the Fair, soak up the last real doses of summer, enjoy the foods, sights, smells and sounds. We savor the summer that was, while we convince ourselves "it's been a great summer" and we tell ourselves we are realy looking forward to fall.

By the way, if you enjoy the wistful and nostalgic feelings some seem to get this time of year I highly recommend watching an old Twilight Zone episode "Walking Distance."

It's a great study on how we all would like to go back to the summers of our youth at some point. It is widely considered to be one of the best Twilight Zone episodes ever produced.

Another feeling I get this time of year a powerful sense of transition. I also recommend watching American Graffiti sometime in the next two weeks. The Lucas classic perfectly captures the seasonal and life transitions that seem to occur as summer eases into September.

But I digress.

PH