Updraft: August 4, 2011 Archive

Minnesota perfect? Will Emily end USA "Hurricane Drought?"

Posted at 8:48 AM on August 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

That old beer commercial might be right on the mark today. "It doesn't get any better than this?"

Talking to literally thousands of Minnesotans (And Arizonans, and Illinoisans) over the past 20 years of doing weather there are a few constant themes that emerge.

1) Everybody likes different weather. There is not one "perfect weather" ideal fro all.

2) Different weather scenarios benefit people and businesses in different ways.

-Your snowplow guy loves many 3" snows in a season if he chagres by the plow...etc.

-Your electric utility might like a hot spell if they know about it in advance, and don't have to buy expensive extra power on the spot market.

-And farmers like rain on days when car wash owners might not!

There's an old saying..."There is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather."

That said, I can tell you that if I took a poll of all Minnesotans I think that we might get the vast majority to say that today's weather is pretty close to perfect.

Still I know there will be those who will complain about today's weather. It always amazed me in Arizona how people would complain about the slightest variations from "perfect." It would be sunny, 75 degrees in December and some people complain that "It's a little too windy today" with a 13 mph wind. Human nature I guess?

I hope you can enjoy plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the 80s, and dew points in the lower 60s, with relatively light winds today in Minnesota.

What is your idea of "perfect weather?" Or do you like (or curse the fact) that we have so much variability in our weather in Minnesota?

Hurricane Drought: Will Emily end the string?

Now this is the kind of drought I think we all could get used to!

It's been 3 years since a hurricane has hit the USA. Nasty Hurricane Ike was the last to strike the U.S. back in September 2008...nearly 3 years ago. That makes 1055 days since the last land falling U.S. hurricane.

If no hurricanes hit the United States this year, it would be the longest lull between U.S. hurricane landfalls in recorded history, according to NOAA.

Erratic Emily is keeping forecasters at NHC guessing:

"THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72 HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY."

The models continue to be split on Emily's eventual path and intensity.

The "official" NHC track seems to favor the eastern solution and creates a close shave for Florida's east coast.

Here's another interesting way to look at Emily. The loop below shows a 72 hour animation of "precipitable water" over the Atlantic. You can see the red areas swirling through the Caribbean as Emily churns westward.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

La Nina: not dead yet?

The latest ENSO advisory from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center may send a bit of a chill through winter weary Minnesotans. CPC is highlighting the chance that La Nina may hang on this upcoming winter. Too early to bet the farm, and not all La Nina winters are equal in Minnesota.

A safe outlook for winter in Minnesota? Cold with occasional snow.

Enjoying today's weather a little more?

PH

PH

Humidity builds; Saturday thunder? Emily takes a nosedive

Posted at 5:00 PM on August 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

75 degree dew point at 6am Tuesday at MSP Airport

53 degree dew point at 1pm Wednesday

63 degree dew point at 10 am Thursday

After a 22 degree drop in dew point at MSP Airport in 30 hours, you can feel the humidity creeping back up again in Minnesota. Dew points are on the rise through the sticky 60s again, and may reach the tropical 70 degree point by Saturday.

Dew points in the upper 60s & 70s in Iowa are moving back north into Minnesota.

After record humidity this summer you have to wonder if moss is going to start growing on the trees. Is this the Twin Cities or Savannah?

Saturday storm chances:

As moisture increases Friday, a wave of low pressure will skirt the Minnesota-Canadian border Saturday. The system should spawn a few scattered T-Storms as it moves through the Dakotas Friday & Minnesota Saturday.

SPC paints slight risk for severe storms (in yellow) to the west Friday.

Emily fades over Hispaniola:

Once Tropical Storm Emily did a dissapearing act over Hispainola Thursday. The storm's circualtion was never very strong, and it became even more disorganized as it interacted with the highly mountainous island.

Anatomy of a dying Tropical Storm:

Before: Emily looked somewhat better organized on Wednesday.

After: Emily's interaction with mountainous terrain on Hispaniola tears the storm apart.

REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY.

SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Models track Emily's remains near (over) Florida. The question is will she regenerate?

It remains to be seen if Emily's remains will reorganize as it moves into the Bahamas. For now, the NHC has dropped the advisories for Emily. Emily has already thrown a few curve balls; let's see if she has any more surprises up her sleeve in the coming days.

PH