Updraft: August 3, 2011 Archive

Late summer arrives; Is "Emily" a threat to Florida?

Posted at 8:25 AM on August 3, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Hurricanes

Welcome to "late" summer.

By one definition, when August arrived this week we stepped into the last third of meteorological summer. The warmest 3 months of the year in Minnesota (meteorological summer) are June, July & August. As much as I hate to say it, we've made the turn and we're just entering the last (hopefully long) lap of summer.

Sunday August 7th is a "cross quarter day," astronomically speaking. This marks the halfway point on the calendar between the summer solstice and the (northern hemisphere) fall equinox. Don't read this if you're faint hearted, but we're actually losing about 18 minutes of daylight a week now! (Gulp)

Want good news?

By most measures, the best 3 months of weather are ahead in Minnesota. It's pretty hard to beat August, September & October in the Upper Midwest...most years anyway.

Free AC: "Fresh front" arrives on schedule

As if on cue, a cool front sailed through Minnesota Tuesday. You can feel it in the air this morning...the big change in air masses. Dew points plunged a full 20 degrees in many areas in 24 hours. That's roughly a 50% drop in atmospheric water vapor, and the reason you feel comfortable and can literally breathe easier today!

Atmospherically speaking we "moved" from the Amazon Jungle to San Diego in 24 hours...not a bad change of atmosphere.

With drier high pressure overhead we may actually string 3 dry days in a row together. That hasn't happened often this summer, and the last time we had 4 dry days in a row in much of Minnesota was the first week of June!

Our next real rain threat moves in Saturday with a shot of scattered T-Storms. Right now Sunday looks gorgeous, with bright sun, temps in the 80s and comfy humidity levels.

Tropical Trouble: Emily gets stronger:

Tropical Storm Emily is making a move toward Hispaniola today.

NOAA satellite IR loop courtesy WSI.

Emily has grown and become better organized in the past 24 hours. The storm is forecast to batter Hispaniola with wind, torrential rains and possible life threatening mudslides.

The interaction with higher terrain on Hispaniola may disrupt Emily, but she is forecast to regain strength over open water after that.

The "consensus" and official NHC track bring then Hurricane Emily to a track east of Florida then recurve her out into the open Atlantic.

There has been some westward shift in some of the hurricane model tracks over the past 24 hours.

Several of the models (about 5 of 15) steer Emily further west, and take the storm on a more westward course that could threaten Florida by this weekend.

About one-third of hurricane forecast models suggest Emily could threaten Florida.

Stay tuned to the progress of Emily. This could be a close call for Florida and the southeast USA.

PH

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