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Updraft: August 2, 2011 Archive

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch this morning

Posted at 6:28 AM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards (5 Comments)
Filed under: Thunderstorms, dew point

ww0717_radar.gif

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL 100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ORTONVILLE
MINNESOTA.

Heavy rain fell across portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight. Three and a third inches of rain was reported at Askov in Pine County, MN and near Floodwood in St. Louis County, MN. The automated gauge at the Duluth Airport captured two and a half inches of rain.

Severe thunderstorms are possible in the southern portion of Minnesota and west central Wisconsin this morning as a cool front slips through the region. Less humid conditions are on tap for Wednesday.

Here's the complete report of the record dew point for this summer as published Monday afternoon by the Minnesota State Climate Office:

The Exceptionally Muggy Summer of 2011

The National Weather Service is forecasting a break in the high dew point temperatures over the next few days after the muggy day today. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 274 hours of dew point temperatures of 70 degrees or higher recorded at the Twin Cities International Airport. The record is 512 hours in 2002. What really stands out are the counts of extremely muggy dew point temperatures. So far this summer as of 3pm August 1, there have been 98 hours of dew point temperatures of 75 degrees or higher. This breaks the old record of 78 hours that was set back on 2001.

Twin Cities International Airport
Greatest Number of hours with dew point
temperature of 70 degrees F
(1945-2011)

Rank Year Hours
----------------------
1. 2002 512
2. 1983 392
3. 1995 387
4. 2001 357
5. 1955 345

1981-2010 average = 182

so far in 2011 274
(through 3pm August 1)


Twin Cities International Airport
Greatest Number of hours with dew point
temperature of 75 degrees F
(1945-2011)

Rank Year Hours
--------------------
1. 2011 98 (as of 3pm August 1)
2. 2001 78
3. 1999 64
4. 1987 60
5. 1995 56

1981-2010 average = 18


(5 Comments)

Radar estimated rainfall

Posted at 7:58 AM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Rainfall, Thunderstorms

From the Doppler radar out of Duluth NWS Office, Here is the estimated rainfall from early Monday morning until 8AM CDT this morning. Four to six inches estimated in Douglas County in northwest Wisconsin.
WUNIDS_map.gif

AT 651 AM CDT...DOUGLAS COUNTY WISCONSIN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS ROADS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY WERE UNDER WATER
DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. STATE HIGHWAY 35...APPROXIMATELY 19 MILES
SOUTH OF SUPERIOR WAS REPORTED TO BE CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROAD. ALSO...COUNTY ROAD W SOUTH OF DEWEY AT THE NEMADJI RIVER WAS
REPORTED WASHED OUT. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.

Here's a great view with the infrared of NOAA satellite image from daybreak. Notice the overnight convection over northwest Wisconsin and the new cluster of thunderstorms that would race across southern Minnesota this morning.

ECI8.jpg

Follow the storm reports this morning out of the Chanhassen NWS Office.

Branches down between 730AM and 810AM in portions of Stearns County; Avon to St. Joseph.

0805 AM TSTM WND GST ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W
08/02/2011 M63 MPH STEARNS MN MESONET

Storms moving through northern Metro into west central Wisconsin through mid morning.
CE

"Humigeddon 2011" sets records; "Fresh front" brings relief

Posted at 5:15 PM on August 2, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Record

The record hot, muggy & buggy summer of 2011 is taking a long overdue break. But not before blowing some records for summertime humidity out of the water.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 dewps tue.gif
Another muggy day with 70s dew points in Minnesota Tuesday. Some of the highest dew points in the nation have pooled over Minnesota this summer.

The data from Twin Cities NWS & The Minnesota Climate Working Group.

Twin Cities International Airport
Greatest Number of hours with dew point
temperature of 75 degrees F
(1945-2011)

Rank Year Hours
--------------------
1. 2011 98 (as of 3pm August 1)
2. 2001 78
3. 1999 64
4. 1987 60
5. 1995 56

1981-2010 average = 18

That's more than two full "work weeks" of dewpoints at or above 75 in the metro (and much of central & southern Minnesota) this summer. By that measure, this is the "muggiest" summer on record for Minnesota.

We also broke the all time dew point record in the metro (and possible Minnesota) this summer two weeks ago today.

Record Dew Point Temperature in the Twin Cities: July 19, 2011

"The National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWS) in Chanhassen and the DNR State Climatology Office have conferred on last week's extraordinary dew point temperatures in the Twin Cities. It was agreed that the 82 degree F dew point temperature value reported at 3:00 PM and again at 4:00 PM on Tuesday July 19, 2011 at the Twin Cities International Airport will be considered by these offices as the highest dew point temperature ever recorded in the Twin Cities. The old record in the Twin Cities was 81 degrees at 11:00 am on July 30, 1999.

It is known that July 19 dew point temperatures exceeded 82 degrees F at moments between the routine hourly observations. However, in the interest of historical consistency and practicality in establishing future records, only hourly dew point temperature measurements were utilized to determine the new record.

Heat index values on July 19 were extraordinarily high. The 4:00 PM observation may have tied or set an all-time heat index record for the Twin Cities. The air temperature reported at that hour was 95 degrees F and was paired with the 82 degree F dew point temperature. In the next few weeks, the heat index formula used by the NWS hourly "Weather Roundup" product will be used with the historical hourly air temperature/dew point temperature data set to create a heat index climatology. Another announcement will be sent when this is completed."

Any way you slice it, this has been one of, if not the muggiest summers in Minnesota history.


Relief! Cool front sweeps away storms & "Humigeddon"
A Canadian cool front is sweeping cooler and much drier (more comfortable) air into Minnesota. Dew points are plummeting form the tropically stuffy 70s into the 50s. The air will go from feeling like July in the jungle to October in some parts of Minnesota by Wednesday morning.

The difference in air masses is remarkable, and we'll all be breathing easier as the comfortable air mass slides south by Wednesday morning.

The graphic below illustrates the change in air masses. Wind direction is indicated by the yellow arrows, and potted over surface dew points, the yellow dashed lines. The northwest winds are pumping in much drier "low dew point" air in the 50s into Minnesota late Tuesday, even as tropical dew point sin the 70s hang on in southeast Minnesota.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 dewps streams.PNG

Tuesday morning storm damage north of the metro:

Another round of storms packed a punch this morning, and some considerable wind damage occurred. Damage reports like this one were common from the north metro to Duluth.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
926 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM TSTM WND DMG ELK RIVER 45.33N 93.57W
08/02/2011 SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN...TREES ON POWER
LINES.

0847 AM TSTM WND DMG ISANTI 45.49N 93.25W
08/02/2011 ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

Enjoy the respite from storms Wednesday, low humidity and temps in the 80s the rest of this week!

PH

Warmth of August sun, minus the humidity

Posted at 4:30 PM on August 2, 2011 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Climate, Hurricanes, dew point

I spent a couple hours outdoors this morning and it sure felt warm in the August sunshine. With only a slight cooling breeze it was a blessing to have dew points some twenty degrees lower than Tuesday. The dew point at the Twin Cities International Airport was 74 degrees yesterday and a more comfortable 55 degrees this afternoon.

While the mercury has climbed to ninety degrees or better at MSP this summer season on fourteen days, we are looking at a period out a couple weeks were it may be more to our delight with regard to heat. The average temperature for July in St. Cloud was about 4.5 degrees warmer than normal. The Twin Cities average temp was 5.6 degrees above normal for July 2011.

We have turned the corner for "normal" maximum temperatures in the heart of summer and are slowly creeping down into the lower 80s. By the time we reach August 13th the average high in the Twin Cities is down from 84 to 81 degrees. The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center depicts odds favoring at or somewhat below normal temperatures for the upper Midwest.

Check out the July climate reports for St. Cloud, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Eau Claire and Chanhassen here.

augoutlook.gif

In case you think we had it bad here, and we did with the high dew points, the average maximum temperature for July in Dallas, TX was over 101 degrees. More than 70 percent of Texas is in an exceptional drought. They could use a decaying tropical storm to move inland and dump generous rainfall. That doesn't appear likely soon.

Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Emily and the computer generated track is the challenge for hurricane forecasters in NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Center.

Here's the link to follow the tropical storm's the reminder of the season. NOAA's Hurricane Center website.

The latest update on the storm named Emily predicts a path that takes it over Haiti with winds of 50 mph and rainfall of over five inches. From the Hurricane Center's most recent statement this afternoon....Tropical Storm EMILY Public Advisory:
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Track projection as of early this afternoon for Emily.

emily5day.gif

Always subject to change, but the forecast strength remains below hurricane force of 75 mph winds until early next week.

Enjoy the seasonal temperatures the next couple of days. Overnight temperatures may allow you to shut down the A/C and bring in some outside air.

CE


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