Updraft: June 22, 2011 Archive

This is summer? Epic Minot flood; EF-0 Tornado confirmed

Posted at 5:13 PM on June 22, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Flooding

Summer arrived Tuesday with tornado warnings heavy rain. Wednesday features April-like temperatures in the 50s & 60s and a raw northwest wind.

The unseasonably cool weather pattern may have Minnesotans saying, "If this is summer, give me back spring!"

81 degrees-average high temperatures for June 22nd

64 Twin Cities temp at 4pm today

17 degrees below average!

Wind chill? in June??

It's hard to fathom, but our unseasonably strong and chilly spring like storm system in June will leave us feeling the chill through Thursday.

The incredibly potent out of season mid-latitude cyclone streteches for Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Take a look at the massive system on Wednesday's MODIS Terra visible satellite image.

Temperatures under the comma shaped head of the storm over Minnesota are running a full 20 degrees cooler than average for June 22nd. It's in the 50s in much of northern and central Minnesota!

Factor in the wind and it actually feels like upper 40s in some areas...and this is June!

Forecast improves Friday:

The slow moving system should finally begin to pull out of Minnesota Friday. Look for a return to sunshine from west to east...and temperatures will recover into the 70s in most areas.

Iffy Weekend?

The weather maps look like somebody put a target right over Minnesota. The jet stream has been close to or directly overhead for months now, and the next weather wave may race in Saturday with another chance of spotty showers.

The wave should clear Minnesota by Sunday. If everything works out right, Sunday could be the sunnier, warmer more summer like day this weekend with highs near 80 in the south.

Epic flooding in Minot, ND:

Combine high runoff from heavy winter snows and the wettest May & June on record since 1945 in North Dakota and what do you get?

An epic flood with tragic consequences unfolding this week in Minot, North Dakota.

The Souris River is reaching record flood levels this week, and is expected to breach Minot's flood protection by Thursday. As many as 12,000 of Minot's 40,000 residents are evacuating, as sirens wail to sound the warning.

The Souris begins in Saskatchewan and flows southeast into Minot before turning back northeast into Manitoba. It is part of the Red River drainage system.

The river is already 7+ feet above flood stage in Minot, and is expected to rise another 3-5 feet this week.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
447 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH
DAKOTA...

DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH
DAKOTA...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR SHERWOOD AFFECTING RENVILLE COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR FOXHOLM AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER ABOVE MINOT 4NW AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT MINOT BRWY BRDG AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT LOGAN AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT SAWYER AFFECTING WARD COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER AT VELVA AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR BANTRY AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY
SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE AFFECTING BOTTINEAU COUNTY
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AFFECTING MCHENRY AND BOTTINEAU
COUNTIES
FOR THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN INCLUDING SHERWOOD...FOXHOLM...MINOT
4NW...MINOT BRWY BRDG...LOGAN...SAWYER...VELVA...TOWNER...BANTRY...
WESTHOPE...FOXHOLM...WILLOW CITY...RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. FOR THE DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

.A SHARP RISE ON THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR SHERWOOD WAS OBSERVED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE USGS MEASURED
A FLOW OF 21900 CFS ON THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR SHERWOOD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RISE PAST SHERWOOD OCCURRED FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ROUTING WATER FROM ESTEVAN
TO SHERWOOD AT THESE HIGH LEVELS. THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
FLOWS INTO LAKE DARLING HAS PREVENTED THE POOL ELEVATION FROM
DROPPING AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND WILL NECESSITATE THE
RELEASES TO BE INCREASED TO 18 THOUSAND CFS ON JUNE 18TH AND 22
THOUSAND CFS ON JUNE 22ND. THE CURRENT RELEASE SCHEDULE IS TO
HOLD AT 22 THOUSAND CFS THROUGH JUNE 29TH.

WITHIN THE CITY OF MINOT...LEVEES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER TOPPED
AS RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE. THE SOURIS RIVER LEVEL THROUGH
MINOT IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE UNTIL WATER HAS FILLED THE STORAGE BEHIND
THE LEVEES.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STAGE-RATING CURVE AT RECORD LEVELS...
ONE SHOULD ADD OR SUBTRACT ABOUT A HALF A FOOT FROM THE FORECAST
LEVELS PROVIDED BELOW TO ARRIVE AT A PLAUSIBLE RANGE OF RIVER
LEVELS

Minot is the latest crisis point in what's really been a year of bad (and record) weather for the Upper Midwest.

EF-0 Tornado Confirmed in Anoka County

NWS survey team of Matt Friedlein & Todd Krause confim Tuesday's tornado in Coon Rapids & Baline.

Tuesday afternoon saw numerous rotating thunderstorms across southern and central Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin. Some of these had deeper rotation in favorable environments, prompting tornado warnings. Numerous funnel clouds and one tornado were reported through early Tuesday evening. That tornado has been confirmed as an EF-0 in intensity. In addition, thunderstorms briefly trained over St. Cloud producing very heavy rainfall over a short amount of time, creating flooding in the downtown.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
457 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...ANOKA COUNTY TORNADO RATED AN EF-0...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM ASSESSED THE
DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THAT TRACKED
NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ANOKA COUNTY IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO
AREA.

EVENT...EF-0 TORNADO.

LOCATION...FROM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF U.S. HIGHWAY 10 AND
CENTRAL AVENUE IN BLAINE...NORTHWEST TO ABOUT ONE HALF MILE
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 14 AND HANSON
BOULEVARD IN FAR NORTHERN COON RAPIDS.

PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY FIVE AND A HALF MILES.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70 TO 80 MPH.

MAXIMUM WIDTH...75 YARDS.

MOST INTENSE DAMAGE...NEAR A DOZEN LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED IN
AN AREA OF TOWNHOUSES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 10 AND
POLK ST. INTERSECTION IN BLAINE.

TIMING...THIS IS STILL BEING ASSESSED. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THE TORNADO PRIMARILY OCCURRED SOMETIME BETWEEN 310 AND 330 PM.

REMARKS...THE DAMAGE DONE BY THE TORNADO WAS ALMOST ENTIRELY TO
TREES. IN THREE INSTANCES...FALLEN LARGE TREES HAD LANDED ONTO
HOUSES. THERE WERE A COUPLE CONCENTRATED AREAS...INCLUDING JUST
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN BLAINE NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATH...AND THEN A LESSER ONE NEAR THE END OF THE PATH JUST NORTH
OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 14 IN COON RAPIDS. OTHERWISE...THE TREE DAMAGE
WAS MAINLY SPORADIC. NUMEROUS FALLEN TREES WERE PERPENDICULAR TO
THE STORM PATH...SOME EVEN BEING REVERSE OF IT...HELPING TO
INDICATE THIS WAS A TORNADO.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF SECOND TORNADO OCCURRED JUST AFTER
THIS ONE...OR THAT THIS TORNADO LASTED SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THE
COMMUNITY OF ANDOVER. THUS FAR...THE NWS HAS RECEIVED NO
INDICATION OF DAMAGE IN ANDOVER AND THE DAMAGE SURVEY SAW WHAT
APPEARED TO THE BE THE END OF THE PATH IN COON RAPIDS.

THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS...LAW
ENFORCEMENT...AND MEDIA WHO PROVIDED OR RELAYED CRITICAL REPORTS
TO THE NWS IN REAL TIME. IN ADDITION...THE NWS WOULD ALSO LIKE TO
THANK THE MANY MEDIA WHO RELAYED THE WARNING INFORMATION ON
TUESDAY. FINALLY...A SPECIAL THANK YOU TO THE ANOKA COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WHO HELPED ASSIST IN THE DAMAGE SURVEY.

$$

FRIEDLEIN/KRAUSE

PH