Posted at 9:05 AM on June 9, 2011
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: La Nina
The bloom is fading on the lilacs. The June bugs are pretty much toast. And it feels like school should be starting up today, instead of the last day of school for many districts.
Did we go to bed in June and wake up in September?
With temperatures 50 degrees cooler than just 36 hours ago you have to wonder.
Let's break down the forecast as we look ahead into the weekend.
Thursday feels like September in Minnesota. A mixed bag of clouds & sun and a brisk northeast breeze combined with temps in the 60s will make for a chilly but pleasant day.
78 degrees: The average high for today, June 9th.
68 degrees: My forecast high for the metro at around 4pm today
September 23rd: The date when our average high is 68 degrees
Thursday night & Friday:
Our next weathermaker rolls into Minnesota tonight and Friday.
A moderate strength low pressure system is slowly pulling east from the northern Rockies and heading for Minnesota. Ahead of the system, a warm front in Iowa will pull up moisture and develop a "stratiform rain" area tonight and move it north into southern Minnesota.
As opposed to convective precip, stratiform rain is more widespread and consistent, so the rain area could be a soaker for most all of Minnesota by late Friday.
It looks like the rain will focus on southern Minnesota overnight into early Friday, then shift north as Friday wears on. Skies may brighten and the rain may taper in southern Minnesota Friday PM.
Rainfall totals with this system appear to be in the .30" to .70" range generally speaking, with some locally higher 1" totals possible.
On the higher end of the scale, last night's NAM model was cranking out as much as 1.22" of rain for the metro, but has come down to around .60" on the overnight run. The GFS is hanging with about .30" on the lower end.
We've only picked up .02" of rain in the metro so far in June, so most areas could use a good soaking. The timing is good for the most part. Temps will feel cool and linger in the 60s Friday.
Depending on your perspective, this might be a half decent weekend forecast.
Look for a mix of sun & clouds both Saturday and Sunday. Highs should be in the cool 60s Saturday, moderating into the low 70s Sunday.
Right now, the weekend looks mostly dry. It could be better, but it could be worse this weekend!
The scene we saw on Minnesota rivers has played out this year from Mississippi to Montana. Heavy snow in the northern Rockies combines with recent rainfall has river at or near record flood stage in Montana.
NOAA has the details:
...Western Flooding Continues...
Published: Thu, 09 Jun 2011 08:07:12 EDT
"More heavy rainfall -- 1 to 3 inches in the past 24 hours -- fell over central and eastern Montana, causing extensive flash flooding of streams and tributaries, as well as main stem river flooding. Many homes have been flooded in the Helena and Glasgow vicinities and a significant number of bridges and roads are impassable. The Milk River near Glasgow reached a record stage of 33.9 feet this morning, and is within one foot of the top of the levee protecting Glasgow."
AZ smoke plume visible from space:
Check out these amazing images from NOAA satellites as the smoke plume from Arizona's huge Wallow Fire streams northeast nto Minnesota Tuesday. (UW-Madison CIMSS Satellite Blog)
Now look at the image below as isolated thunderheads blew near sunset in Tuesday's heat, as the CB towers and setting sun cast shadows on the smoke plume into Wisconsin!
Do you remember how the sky turned an orangey color around sunset during the heat on Tuesday as those isolated T-Storms blew in St. Paul and raced east into Wisconsin?
We were witnessing a smoky pall from the AZ Wallow Fire plume as the cold front pushed in.
Remarkable how events over 1,000 miles away can affect our sky and weather in Minnesota!
Adios La Nina:
The latest ENSO Advisory from CPC is the final La Nina adviory for this event.
We can probably thanks, blame or curse La Nina for our snowy winter, and our chilly turbulent spring in Minnesota.
It looks like La Nina is finally bitting the dust in the tropical Pacific.
Modles trend towards "ENSO neutral" or even a slight El Nino by next winter. That could portend winter next year that is less harsh than last winter.
Posted at 4:43 PM on June 9, 2011
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall
+10.1 degrees: June temperatures vs. average at MSP Airport through June 8th
3 number of 90+ degree days so far this year in the metro and most of southern Minnesota
103 degrees: Hottest day in the metro in 23 years on June 7th
.02" June rainfall at MSP Airport through June 8th.
June came in like July:
June 2011 rolled in on a hot streak. It's almost as if somebody flipped a switch and decided summer was here June 1st. Some facts about June so far through June 8th.
- Every day has featured above average temperatures
- 7 of the first 8 days have been above 80 degrees
- There has been a 52 degree range in temps so far this month (From 103 to 51!)
Welcome to Minnesota where anything can, and usually does, happen in weather. Sometimes in the same week!
The cold front than scoured out our record heat and humidity early this week brings a decidedly chilly spring (or fall) feel to the air. It's as if we're in rewind back to May on the weather maps.
One thing June has been so far is dry, and our current weather system is bringing some much needed rainfall.
The low pressure system pulling out of the Rockies is a pretty good rainmaker.
Showers will continue to spread north from southern Minnesota overnight into the north through Friday. Skies may brighten as the rain tapers off in the south Friday PM.
Overall rainfall totals look to be between .30" to .70" for many locations. Some local areas could see an inch of rain. Tenps will be cool in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Severe risk stays south:
It appears the best energy and instability for severe weather will remain well south of Minnesota.
It appears the system will pull east of the area by Saturday afternoon. This should lead to a clearing trend, and much of Minnesota looks to see a return to sunshine and some puffy fair weather cumulus clouds Saturday afternoon.
Temps may rebound into the upper 60s, which is still a good 10 degrees below average for June 11th.
Sunday may start sunny, with a weak system attempting to spread some clouds and a few showers into Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening. Highs may crack 70 in most areas Sunday!
AZ Wallow Fire Updates:
Here's a great tool to keep track of the huge Wallow Fire in eastern Arizona. The blaze is still 0% contained, which means it is basically spreading at the whim of the winds.
Twins "Storm Ready"
The Minnesota Twins made it offical this week. They've received the "Storm Ready" certification from NWS.
"The Minnesota Twins have become the first American League team, and Target Field the first Minnesota sports facility, to attain StormReady Supporter status. The National Weather Service and the local StormReady board are pleased to have awarded this designation to the Twins at a ceremony Thursday morning, June 9.
Stormready is a National Weather Service program through which counties and communities develop plans to protect residents from severe weather. This includes informing residents of the threats, promoting readiness through community outreach and education, developing a hazardous weather plan that includes weather spotter training and emergency exercises, having multiple ways to receive and distribute warnings, and having a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center."
I may be biased, but in my book the Twins were "storm ready" the minute Craig Edwards stepped into Target Field!
Hope your lawn & garden appreciates the rain!