It will look, feel and possibly sound like spring this weekend in Minnesota!
A western storm will track east through Minnesota this weekend. As it approaches, we'll see a variety of weather conditions from sun, to clouds to rain & thunder to potentially severe weather.
Let's break down the weekend forecast.
Friday Night: Dry high pressure means a beautiful, cool, dry Friday night. Look for increasing clouds from the south, with mainly clear skies north & east. Temps will fall through the 50s Friday evening with lows in the mid 40s south and frosty 30s north. Light SE winds.
Weather tip: Look for the waxing "Maple Sap Moon" peeking through a few clouds in the western sky this evening. The moon will set just after midnight, at 12:18am Saturday morning.
Saturday: A warm front will push north through Iowa Saturday toward Minnesota. Ahead of the front, clouds, fog & drizzle may increase. Look for a mix of clouds, and some filtered sun peeking through at times Saturday.
If we get enough sun temps may push 70 in southern Minnesota. If not, temps will still climb into the 60s. Chance for a scattered shower or T-Storm later. SE winds between 7-12 mph.
Weather/phenology tip: Look for new shoots emerging form the landscape, including tulips, daffodils and crocus.
Saturday night: This is where things may get a little "interesting."
As the warm front pushes north, a surge of moisture and an increasing low level jet stream around 5k feet may trigger scattered showers & T-Storms. The best chance of a storm may come after midnight. There is a slight risk for a few severe storms according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
Primary storm threats appear to be hail and high winds.
Temps should be steady in the lower 60s.
Weather tip: Look for lightning in the sky late Saturday night. Storms will be moving toward the north/northeast.
Sunday & Sunday night: Depending on which model solution wins out, Sunday may end up feeling like early summer with warm and more humid air pushing into the southern parts of Minnesota.
If the low moves far enough north & west, the "warn sector" may push as far north as the Twin Cities Sunday PM. That could mean sun will boost temps into the (upper?) 70s in the metro... and temps may push 80 degrees in Rochester & SE MN and western Wisconsin!
Increased humidity will also jump into the weather equation for the first time this year...and dew points could surge into the 60s! Yes, we may go from snow to warm & humid weather in just two weeks.
With the low nearby, the warm surge and increased humidity the chances for thunderstorms will increase Sunday. The best chances appear to be afternoon & evening. There is an increasing risk for severe storms packing damaging winds and large hail Sunday PM & evening.
With temps near 80, high humidity and plenty of spin or "shear" in the atmosphere Sunday, there is also a risk for a few of the storms to produce tornadoes.
Bottom line & weather tip: Be prepared for the risk of severe storms to bust out Sunday, especially PM & evening. This is the time to dig out the NOAA weather radio & brush up on your severe weather safety plan. We may get rocked by some loud thunder & severe storms Sunday.
We expect to have extra weather coverage on MPR News stations Sunday PM & evening if severe storms fire off.
Red River Update:
As southern Minnesota rivers reach a second crest this weekend, the focus shifts north to the big brawling Red which is in major flood stage this weekend.
The forecast for the Red River remains pretty much status quo at this point.
Weekend rains may total 1" in the Red River basin, but there are some indications that the delay in runoff may prolong the crest, but not raise the level.
The official forecast from AHPS remains for a crest of 39.5' @ Fargo Sunday at this point.
Here's the verbiage from the Grand Forks NWS.
RIVER WARNINGS FOR MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE RED RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS THE SNOWMELT CONTINUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...ACCELERATING THE SNOWMELT WHILE MAINTAINING OVERLAND FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE RAIN WILL
FALL...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH RIVER LEVELS EVEN HIGHER...AS
CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ONLY INCLUDE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WORTH OF
OTHERWISE...THE FAR SOUTHERN BASIN IS SHOWING DECREASING FLOWS AT
POINTS SOUTH OF ABERCROMBIE ON THE WILD RICE RIVER AND ENLOE ON THE
RED RIVER. THIS INDICATES THAT THE PRIMARY CREST WAVES ALONG THE TWO
RIVERS IS NOW HEADED INTO FARGO. THE CURRENT RATE OF MOVEMENT
SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY CREST COULD REACH FARGO ON
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE RUNOFF OF ANY HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUS...THE PROJECTED CREST RANGE FOR FARGO HAS BEEN NARROWED...AND IS NOW FROM 39 TO 40 FEET. HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY OCCUR AT THE TIME OF THE CREST...WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN HIGH WATER STAGES FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AREAS THAT ARE NOT YET
EXPERIENCING RUNOFF TO SEE THE PROCESS BEGIN...AND ACCELERATE THE
THE RUNOFF WHERE IT IS ONGOING. THE RUN OFF SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
IN THE PARK...FOREST AND PEMBINA BASINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
JAMMING WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MAPLE RIVER...WHICH IS INDICATING SEVERAL AREAS OF ICE JAMMING SUCH
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-94 / U.S. 10 CORRIDOR. OVERLAND
FLOODING PERSISTS AS THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT."
Stay tuned as we watch for changes in the weekend forecast and monitor the severe threat which will increase as we approach Sunday.