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Latest Models: GFS 22.5"...NAM 25.5"!

Posted at 9:50 PM on February 19, 2011 by Paul Huttner (9 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms, Winter/spring 2011

I'm working on a longer version of this post, but I wanted to get the headline out there.

It looks like I'm going to raise my snowfall forecast for the metro and much of southern Minnesota for a 2nd time.

I am now leaning toward a storm snowfall total of between 10" and 20" by Monday noon for much of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

This includes Redwood Falls, Willmar, The Twin Cities, Eau Claire & Red Wing.

The 00Z (6pm) NAM run is in. The model is cranking out an incredible 1.54" liquid...and a storm total snowfall of 25.5" for MSP Airport!

The latest 18Z (noon) GFS run came in at 22.5" for MSP.

The models are producing incredible snowfall rates of up to 2" and 3" per hour Sunday late PM & evening!

The other trend is to slow the storm about 3-6 hours. It looks like snowfall will begin in the metro between 6am & 9am Sunday.

More soon....

Comments (9)

I have an odd but important question for you: I coach a youth hockey team in Minneapolis and we have a game scheduled in Sartell for 9:45a tomorrow (Sunday) morning. Our kids/parents would be on the road to and from Sartell between 7am-830 and about 11am-1230pm. Should we expect the roads to be safe for travel at those times?

Thanks!

Posted by KB | February 19, 2011 10:05 PM

Love your info, Paul. Hope the next update has a more defined (narrow) range for the MSP central core.

Posted by George | February 19, 2011 10:09 PM

KB:

Might get there okay...conditions will rapidly deteriorate by noon.

Thanks George: The Domebuster produced a range of 10" to 23.5" just within the metro. We could see that same spread again, just in the metro area, with this storm.

Posted by Paul Huttner | February 19, 2011 10:12 PM

How soon will the snow hit in far western MN, Granite Falls to Marshall area? Will we be able to get to country churches and back home tomorrow morning?

Posted by Evelyn | February 19, 2011 10:21 PM

Thanks so much, Paul!

Posted by KB | February 19, 2011 10:28 PM

I was just comparing these posts with the posts from the December 11 storm...awfully similar. I check your blog first for weather. Thank you for being so thorough!

Posted by Shannon | February 19, 2011 10:36 PM

Hi Paul. Thank you for the great info.

Could you explain what goes into your 10"-20" snowfall total around the metro when the two models are showing 22.5 and 25.5 at MSP respectively? I would think the models would be trying for the middle of what is likely. Are they usually high? Is MSP the high computer model point for the area? Is it just such a huge number that history says we won't make it that high? How often do you see 20"+ from the computers for one storm just before it hits?

Thanks in advance.

Posted by John | February 19, 2011 10:57 PM

Evelyn - the NWS forecast is showing that precip will start in the Marshall/Granite Falls area sometime between midnight and 3AM. You can see for yourself by clicking here and hovering your mouse over the different time slots in the "weather" row.

Posted by Erik | February 19, 2011 10:59 PM

I agree...snow (and maybe ice) into SW MN between now and 6am.

Thanks for pitching in Erik! It takes a (weather) village!

Posted by Paul Huttner | February 19, 2011 11:54 PM