Updraft

Updraft: February 23, 2011 Archive

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Light snow in the Arrowhead

Posted at 6:30 AM on February 23, 2011 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)

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The most likely area to receive a couple inches of snow in the next twenty-four hours is in the Minnesota Arrowhead. A push of milder air over the cold surface air should create enough lift to produce a band of light snow over northern Minnesota .

Here's some coffee shop talk for you today. On this date in 2010, the Twin Cities received the last measurable snow of the winter season 2009/210. That left our seasonal snowfall tally at just more than forty inches.

So far this winter, the snow has accumulated 74.9 inches at MSP International Airport. Interestingly, the seasonal snowfall to date at both International Falls and Duluth is 74.8 inches, according to the NWS climate data posted on the Duluth NWS website.

From the NWS in Chanhassen; a graphical representation of snowfall the last five years.
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The legend from the NWS, showing the five year seasonal snowfall tally. Red is this winter, and yellow is the record year of 1983/84.

There appears to be two distinct snowstorms in early March and late April in 1984 that launched the Twin Cities to the seasonal record total of 98.6 inches.
CE

(2 Comments)

Dive into the spring flood outlook

Posted at 3:23 PM on February 23, 2011 by Craig Edwards

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Prior to the major winter storm of last weekend, the National Weather Service stated their concern about the potential for record flooding in the upper Midwest. Meteorologist in Charge of the NWS Chanhassen Office, Dan Luna, was quoted as saying, "no river is immune to flooding."

The graphic above is a snapshot of the spring snowmelt flood potential.
Additional snowfall, with water content of an inch, fell in the Minnesota River Valley on Sunday.

You will be hearing terms like stream flow, discharge in cubic feet per second, and flood crest that will focus on the maximum level the river is expected to reach at a specific gaging site. The concern shared with me recently by one hydrologic expert is that the pieces are in place to take the river levels to unchartered territory.

Water running into the rivers from streams and creeks, as well as additional precipitation can be modeled. What can't be modeled is water coming directly overland finding its way into the Red River. This was a factor learned from the 1997 flood.

News journalist will be all over this story. Educating the public on terms such as probabilistic forecasts, and hydrographs will reult in a greater understanding of the science and techniques used by the hydrologists to predict the rivers behavior and ultimate crest forecast.

More information on the spring flood outlook from the National Weather Service

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