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Updraft: January 27, 2011 Archive

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Winter Carnival Forecast: Almost perfect?

Posted at 8:48 AM on January 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Winter

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King Boreas and Vulcanus Rex seem to have reached an agreement for this year's Winter Carnival in St. Paul. A little bit of everything.

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The forecast for the 2011 run of the Winter Carnival looks great, with a little something for everybody. Let's break down the details for the next few days.

Thursday: Milder! Mixed clouds & flurries. Some PM sunny peeks. High near 32. Should be excellent conditions for strolling through Rice Park and checking out ice sculptures!

Friday: Micro thaw! Mixed clouds & snow showers with under 1" of accumulation. High near 35 PM. A few hours above freezing, but not enough to cause any major problems with ice & snow sculptures.

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Saturday: Boreas takes control again. Breezy & colder. Highs in the 20s with a cooler north wind. Pretty good day to check out the Grand Day Parade at 2pm in St. Paul!

Sunday: Slightly arctic. Temps in the teens. Snow may develop from west to east later in the day.

Monday: Chance of snow. Could be "shovelable" and affect rush hours. Maybe a few inches, but not a blockbuster storm at this point. Temps in the teens.

Tuesday through Friday: Colder next week with a gradual warming trend late in the week. Highs single digits to low teens. A couple of sub-zero mornings?

All in all, a GREAT looking, classic winter forecast for this year's Winter Carnival run. Here a link to activities for this year's Winter Carnival.

East Coast digs out:

The east coast snow storm was pretty impressive in some areas. Most areas saw 6" (Washington, D.C.) to 12" (Boston) with the storm, with some higher totals. Here's the list from NYC NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
754 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY
DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA
FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN 18.0 530 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST NORWALK 17.0 110 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 14.5 530 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORWALK 14.0 543 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT 13.0 600 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
DANBURY 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SHELTON 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DARIEN 12.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 15.0 535 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 13.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
HADDAM 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 18.5 605 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
MILFORD 15.0 300 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRANFORD 15.0 554 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 13.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
SOUTHBURY 12.5 440 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WATERBURY 10.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 9.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
MERIDEN 9.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
LISBON 17.5 702 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLCHESTER 15.0 200 AM 1/27 CT DOT
NORTH FRANKLIN 13.5 625 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GROTON 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
UNCASVILLE 9.0 320 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NORWICH 8.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
EAST RUTHERFORD 15.5 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
PARAMUS 12.5 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
RIVERVALE 11.5 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...ESSEX COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT 18.9 615 AM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
BLOOMFIELD 16.5 340 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BELLEVILLE 15.6 200 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST ORANGE 14.2 330 AM 1/27 PUUBLIC
VERONA 14.0 200 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
CEDAR GROVE 13.2 410 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
JERSEY CITY 16.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
HARRISON 15.0 400 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
CLIFTON 19.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
WAYNE 10.5 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
ROSELLE 17.9 430 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
UNION 17.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT
ELIZABETH 14.6 1200 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 12.0 400 AM 1/27 NJ DOT

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSE 18.0 400 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
PARKCHESTER 16.3 630 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
BRONX 14.7 620 AM 1/27 PUBLIC - BRONX ZOO
BEDFORD PARK 13.1 1230 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY...
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 13.0 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
LONG BEACH 15.9 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
BETHPAGE 15.5 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
PLAINVIEW 15.0 500 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
GARDEN CITY 14.8 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
FLORAL PARK 14.0 345 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
LEVITTOWN 14.0 545 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
SYOSSET 14.0 400 AM 1/27 NWS EMPLOYEE
OCEANSIDE 12.0 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MASSAPEQUA 11.0 630 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BALDWIN HARBOR 9.2 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 19.0 630 AM 1/27 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
HARRIMAN 8.2 1200 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 7.2 630 AM 1/27 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/LA GUARDIA 17.3 615 AM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
FRESH MEADOWS 16.2 230 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
WOODSIDE 16.0 600 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 10.3 615 AM 1/27 ASOS

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
ELTINGVILLE 16.0 200 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
STATEN ISLAND 15.0 500 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
STONY POINT 7.6 624 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
NORTHPORT 16.5 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
CENTERPORT 16.5 600 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
COMMACK 15.7 430 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
EAST SETAUKET 15.5 510 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
PORT JEFFERSON 14.0 630 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
ISLIP AIRPORT 13.7 700 AM 1/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
SHOREHAM 13.7 625 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BABYLON 13.5 615 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
UPTON 13.3 700 AM 1/27 NWS OFFICE
SMITHTOWN 13.0 300 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT SINAI 12.4 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
SOUND BEACH 12.1 630 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
PATCHOGUE 12.0 620 AM 1/27 NWS EMPLOYEE
HOLBROOK 11.3 600 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
LINDENHURST 10.9 540 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
HARRISON 16.0 610 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
ARMONK 14.5 615 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
MOUNT KISCO 12.0 350 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
SCARSDALE 10.8 100 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

PH

Spring Floods: Why the dice are loaded

Posted at 6:29 PM on January 27, 2011 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)
Filed under: Crow River, Flooding, Minnesota River, Mississippi River, Red River

It's no surprise that the NWS came out with a potentially dire preliminary flood forecast today. All the ingredients are already in place for major spring flooding on virtually all rivers in the Upper Midwest.

The NWS is right to say if you live anywhere near a river or stream and are at risk of being flooded, buy flood insurance today! It takes 30 days for flood insurance policies to kick in.

Here are the updated preliminary spring flood outlooks from NWS.

-Twin Cities (Mississippi, Minnesota & Crow Rivers)

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-Red River Valley

Here's the headline form Grand Forks NWS:

"For the Southern Red River Basin: Current spring flood outlooks indicate that much of the southern basin, including the Fargo-Moorhead area, already has a higher risk of spring flood levels than were seen in advance of the 2006 or 2010 major flood events. There is a 20 to 25 percent chance that areas near Fargo-Moorhead could see flood levels approach the record levels set back in the early spring of 2009. Continued much above normal snowfall through the remainder of the winter will likely continue to drive that risk slightly upward in later outlooks."


Here are three main reasons why major flooding is highly likely along Minnesota's rivers this spring.

1) A wet fall:

You may recall the unprecedented record floods in September that sent some rivers to all time record highs. Late summer and autumn rainfall was several inches above average in much of the region. That means rivers, streams, lakes and soils were already at capacity going into the freeze.

In fact 2010 was the 2nd wettest on record in Minnesota history, according to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Top Ten Annual Mean Precipiation Records for Minnesota
1895-2010

Rank Value Year
---------------
1 33.92 1977
2 33.64 2010 *
3 33.27 1965
4 33.22 1968
5 32.54 1991
6 32.32 2005
7 32.31 1905
8 31.68 1986
9 31.64 1993
10 31.57 1903


Snow melt this spring will send already brimming rivers quickly higher.

2) Heavy winter snowfall:

One look outside the window tells you all you need to know about Minnesota's snow pack. Our series of massive winter storms have blanketed the Upper Midwest with heavy snow cover.

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Snow depth exceeds 16" in much of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

The water content (snow water equivalent-SWE) in that snow pack ranges from 3" to 8" in much of the region.

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Water content in snow pack (snow water equivalent) shows 4" to 8" in Minnesota & Red River Valley watersheds.

That's like 6" rain storm waiting to be unloaded into area rivers once melting begins in the spring. The damage is already done; so to speak...that snow isn't going away before spring.

3) La Nina:

The deck is already stacked in favor of major spring floods. La Nina may be the "wild card."

Our strong (but fading?) La Nina episode has delivered on the statistically favored colder than average winter in the Upper Midwest. There is also a bias toward cool wet springs in la Nina years. A wet spring could add more fuel to the fire in the spring flood scenario.

If heavy spring rains occur, the rapid snowmelt will send rivers into shock flood mode.

What to watch for:

The weather in the next 8 weeks is critical, and will determine how severe spring flooding will be.

Worst case scenario:

-Heavy late winter snows with high water content. The "Panhandle Hookers" that wind up in the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle region bring wet heavy snows. We've been lucky so far that while many of our storms have produced heavy snowfall totals, the snow:water ratio has been relatively dry...often around 15:1. A few more wet storms will add a lot of water to already charged snow pack.

-Late thaw...rapid spring warm up. If the snow continues to accumulate, then we get a rapid period of warm weather in March that will send torrents of water into area rivers in a shot period of time.

-Heavy spring rains. A big slow moving spring storm with heavy rains would also send a "shock wave" of high water into area rivers. This is the nightmare scenario that will keep flood forecasters and river residents up at night over the next two months.

Best case scenario:

There are several factors that could mitigate flooding this spring.

-Below average snowfall through March

Our 55.4" of snowfall this winter has put the Twin Cities on pace for a top 10 snowfall season. If we get average snowfall for the rest of the winter season (about 22") that would put the metro at about 77" for the season...and vault us into top 10 territory and put us near the 5 snowiest winter threshold of 81.3".

If we are somehow able to continue the current "snow drought" into the spring and end up below that 22" average...that would help...some.

-Gradual thaw?

If we see a nice slow warm up this spring, that would help discharge snow melt into area rivers a little at a time. Ideal scenario? Days above freezing and night below freezing to generate a nice slow "controlled" discharge of snow melt.

-Little spring rain

Another factor that could mitigate spring flooding would be a dry spring. Unfortunately there is a bias toward wetter than average springs in La Nina years. Anything can happen though. A nice dry March and early April would help...a lot.

Stay tuned!

PH

(2 Comments)
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