Updraft: December 29, 2010 Archive

One at a time

Posted at 6:52 AM on December 29, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

The pre-game festivities are about to come to an end. Pieces are beginning to come together for the first round of wintry weather. The primary target area for the initial storm will be northwestern Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Heavy snow may accumulate more than six inches north and west from Fargo to Baudette later tonight and Thursday.

Follow the details on this developing weather from the NWS Office in Grand Forks.

Early morning IR satellite imagery paints a large swath of dense cloudcover racing across the western US. You will also notice the enhanced clouds positioned over the middle Mississippi Valley. This moisture will meet up with the energy coming from the west to create the wintry mix in Minnesota tonight and Thursday.

For the Twin Cities, look for temperatures to hoover close to thirty-two degrees overnight. Light freezing drizzle and fog may create travel difficulties later this evening. Drizzle is likely to turn to rain on Thursday with temperatures above the thawing point.

With snow in northwest Minnesota and rain in southeast Minnesota on Thursday, there will likely be a transition area composed of some freezing rain from about Little Falls to the Iron Range.

A lull in the precipitation intensity still appears on the weather maps for Thursday night into early Friday.

I'll fill you in on the New Year's Eve event later this morning.

Here's the preliminary view of the upcomng two weather systems from the Chanhassen NWS Office.
CE

Coming into focus

Posted at 12:44 PM on December 29, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Location of the low pressure center from GFS model valid at 6PM on Friday. This storm will be in the wake of the storm that will produce several inches of snow on Thursday in northwest Minnesota.

The models are coming into agreement on the path of the second storm system that will impact Minnesota on Friday into Friday night. Based on the projected path of this low center and the associated dynamics in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, heavy snow is likely from about Redwood Falls to Grand Rapids and International Falls.

There should be a break in the heavy precipitation late Thursday and early Friday morning. Currently the band of heaviest snow should position itself west of the Twin Cities on Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures should be cold enough for snow in the Metro on New Year's Eve.

Clouds, fog and precipitation encroaching on region

Posted at 3:28 PM on December 29, 2010 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

IR satellite imagery from late afternoon. Layered moisture is steadily progressing east from the Plains. Low level moisture in the form of dense fog and drizzle is developing over Iowa and southern Minnesota.

The first system is more of a coming attraction, with four to eight inches of snow likely in northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota tonight through midday on Thursday.

I expect the main feature to begin late morning on Friday and continue into the start of the New Year. The band of heaviest snow, more than six inches, should stay to the west of the Twin Cities. However, snow is likely over eastern Minnesota Friday afternoon and evening.

Here is a composite surface forecast track of the two separate low centers. The low center coming out of Kansas is the stronger system that will be over far western Wisconsin on Friday night.

CE