Updraft

Updraft: December 7, 2010 Archive

December cold bucks 2010 temp trend

Posted at 8:42 AM on December 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Climate, Cold

Welcome to Decemberrrrr.

We're almost a full week into the month, and so far December is bucking the trend of warmth in Minnesota in 2010. 7 of the past 8 months have featured above average temperatures in Minnesota. This month, temperatures in the Twin Cities are running a full 8 degrees below average!

It all began with the first snowless March on record for many Minnesota locations. Here's the lowdown on monthly temperatures in the metro (which mirror most of Minnesota) this year.

2010 temps vs. average at MSP Airport (F)

January -0.1
February -0.4
March +8.9
April +8.3
May +1.4
June +0.8
July +3.1
August +6.4
September -0.8
October +5.3
November +2.8
December -8 (so far)

That makes 8 months above average, and 3 months within 1 degree below average this year so far. Even with a cold December, Minnesota will finish the year with well above average temperatures for 2010.

Mirrors global trend in 2010:

In spite of a cold December in much of the northern hemisphere, it looks like 2010 will go down as one of the warmest years on record globally. Here's the data through October of 2010 from NOAA. (November data is due in next week)

"The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for the January-October period tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record. This value is 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average."

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2010 global tmps.PNG

During October, warmth was most pronounced in Canada and the USA, and in Russia, the Middle East and Africa. Europe saw cooling as did the tropical Pacific, which reflects the growing La Nina.

1 1 1 1 1 1 tmp oct 2010.gif

Overall the global warmth in 2010 marks yet another year that rivals the hottest year on record in 1998 and 2005. Even with a chilly December in much of the northern hemisphere, we remain at or near the warmest temperature levels in the past 131 years plus, with no sign of a "global cooling" trend according to NOAA data.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 global tmp trend.gif

Florida freeze continues:

Meanwhile the weather in Florida (and yes, there is a difference between climate and weather!) continues to bring freezing temperatures to critical citrus growing areas. (Can you say higher O.J. prices at the store soon?)

Locations such as Ocala in north central Florida dipped to 28 degrees this morning, and another frosty night is on tap tonight into Wednesday morning.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ocala.PNG

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 fl frz.gif

While 28 degrees would be welcome to most Minnesotans this week, it's a big deal in northern Florida, where citrus farmers scramble to deal with freezing weather.

Enjoy the rare sun today, and quiet but cold weather through Wednesday. I'm still keeping an eye on a clipper that may graze Minnesota Thursday.

PH


Forecast: Two clippers & a real arctic outbreak

Posted at 5:33 PM on December 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Cold

After a mild and wild weather year, Old Man Winter set up shop early this year. And that was just the appetizer. The main course rolls in with the season's first real arctic outbreak this weekend.

What esle would you expect in this wacky "anything goes" weather year that is 2010?

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 sunset.JPG
Wintery landscape at sunset on a frozen and snow covered Lake Minnetonka Tuesday.

Two clippers may clip Minnesota over the next few days.

The first will sail through northern Minnesota Thursday. It looks like the low center will track along the Canadian border, and bring the best shot of snow to the North Country, where 2" to 4" could fly Thursday.

1 1 1 1 1 1 84 snow.PNG
NAM 84 hour snowfall suggests 2" to 4" in northern Minnesota Thursday.

Southern Minnesota will be on the edge of Thursday clipper. It looks like the system may brush the metro and much of southern Minnesota with an inch or so. It also looks like the system will pull in enough mild air to bring a shot of freezing drizzle along with the snow, which could slick up roads Thursday.

A second clipper preceding a shot of arctic air may squeeze out some more light snow this weekend.

1 1 1 1 1 light snow.PNG
Two shots at metro light snow: Thursday and Saturday.

Siberian Express on the way: The coldest air of the season so far appears headed for Minnesota this weekend. This looks to be the first true arctic outbreak for southern Minnesota and the metro, which has not yet felt sub zero air this season. Northern Minnesota has already seen lows in the teens below zero, including a healthy -19 in International Falls Tuesday morning!

The first real tree cracking, battery draining air mass will pour south into the metro this weekend. Highs may not climb out of the single digits above zero Sunday through Tuesday...and overnight lows could be sub-zero all three mornings. Wind chills will be well below zero.

1 1 1 1 1 1 sub zero.PNG
Temps rise to near 32 on Thursday, then plunge to sub zero levels by Sunday.

One more chance Thursday to drain those hose faucets and have your car battery looked at before the real Minnesota brand of arctic air locks in.

Wish I had better news in the forecast. It just is what it is this time of year in Minnesota.

PH


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