Weekend Snowcast: Still major model differences

Posted at 5:08 PM on November 11, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Snow, Weekend

The weather lab "crystal ball" is still a bit cloudy on the weekend forecast.

Thursday's model runs haven't solved anything when it comes to an accurate prediction for rain or snow in the metro this weekend.

The NAM model favors mostly rain well into Saturday, with a changeover to wet snow late Saturday into Sunday. This would push the heaviest snow band back to the west of the metro. If this scenario unfolds the heaviest snow band (possibly 5" to 10") could fall along a Worthington, Redwood Falls, Willmar, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Grand Rapids line.

The Twin Cities and points south and east would see mostly rain, then a changeover to wet snow later Saturday. This would keep snow amounts down in the metro, and would be a "mostly rain" scenario for the metro.

84 hour NAM model snowfall paints heavy snow band into central Minnesota, with mostly rain for the metro.

Another model, the GFS, is leaning more heavily toward a rain snow line setting up on the east side of the metro. If this scenario plays out the western Twin Cities could fall within the heavy snow band and pick up a significant "plowable" snow starting Friday night and lasting into Sunday.

GFS model favors heavier snowfall from the metro northeast into northwest Wisconsin.

NOAA 3-day precip outlook painting heavy precip. Will it be rain or snow in the metro?

It's still too early to tell how this thing is going to play out this weekend regarding the rain snow line and resulting snowfall amounts.

I'll keep this pretty short today, not going to post a bunch of unrelated weather or climate stories for you to wade through from around the world. Let's keep our eye on the ball this weekend and stay focused on Minnesota's first big potential snow of the season.

Bottom line: If you are planning travel this weekend be ready for rain, snow, or both pretty much anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Stay tuned for forecast updates as the models roll in Friday.

PH

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Comments (1)

Paul, what makes the air smell "like snow"?

Posted by Heather | November 12, 2010 12:28 PM

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