Posted at 6:46 AM on November 16, 2010
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Forecast models
More typical November weather has arrived. Through the next week or so there will be pushes of somewhat milder air and instrusions of colder air right where one would expect it to occur, over the upper Midwest. The decreasing hours of daylight are positioning the atmosphere to a battle ground that transitions from autumn to winter.
If you recall, Paul Huttner posted on this blog on October 29th that the long range models indicated a potential snow storm on the 13th of November. The models toyed with the meteorologists for a period of time, before finally locking in and maintaining the confidence that snow was likely in Minnesota last Saturday.
Well let's try this long range outlook stuff again. Here's an image from the GFS model of the surface pressure pattern and two meter temperatures for 6am Thanksgiving morning. That magenta color you see over the Dakotas paints sub-zero temperatures.
For now there will be spritzes of precipitation over southern Minnesota today. Overcast skies are likely to keep the maximum temperature from reaching forty, the normal daily high, in the Twin Cities.
Posted at 8:55 AM on November 16, 2010
by Mark Seeley
On this date in 1931 temperatures soared into the 60s and low 70s F across parts of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. St Peter reported 70 degrees F while New Ulm hit a high of 71 degrees F. Dewpoints climbed into the 50s F with strong southwest winds, gusting between 25-30 mph. By sunset dark clouds with lightning and thunder were crossing over central and eastern Minnesota. About half past nine in the evening a tornado touched down in Hennepin County near Maple Plain destroying several barns and outbuildings in the rural landscape as it tracked NE for 5 miles. Must have been pretty frightening to have such a storm so late in the season and after dark.
This remains the latest date on the calendar for a tornado in Minnesota. The next year on November 16, 1932 the morning low was just 5 degrees F with an afternoon high of only 23 degrees F and a trace of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.....far more winter-like.
Posted at 3:18 PM on November 16, 2010
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter
While we were enjoying a couple of days in the sixties early last week and then turned our attention to a weekend snow storm we overlooked the important information on Winter Weather and Hazard Awareness. If you were in the region that received a dump of heavy snow you had the opportunity to recall winter hazards.
For recollection, I've posted the graphic of the thirty-year average snowfall for Minnesota. As we often said at the Weather Service, there is snow and there is quality snow. A heavy wet snow early in the autumn or late in the winter can create a calamity. But a high quality, accumulating snow in late November through February is wonderful for outdoor recreation. A six inch base that lasts awhile creates trails for for cross-country skiing and taking to the snowmobile tracks. Ski lodges augment the accumulation when conditions are favorable.
I admit that as I age gracefully winter becomes less thrilling. And when I alip-up and mention that I've had enough of the snow, I get the response, "You're not from around here."
The winter outlook from NOAA gives hope of a more typical winter in the upper Midwest. Later this month the Climate Prediction Center will release an update on the winter forecast. So far this snow season (there is no designated official date to launch the season) Duluth has accumulated more than eighteen inches.