Updraft: November 13, 2010 Archive

A Storm is born

Posted at 5:32 AM on November 13, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Like anxious grandparents pacing in a hospital waiting room, meteorologists were greeted with the welcome news that the predicted snow storm has arrived. Here is the latest regional projection of snowfall potential in east central Minnesota. The heaviest snow, on the order of ten inches, is likely to fall from near Hutchinson through Princeton, Cromwell, Duluth and up to Grand Marais. To the west of that line snow accumulations will total four to six inches.

In the Twin Cities Metro area we expect a range of as much as eight inches towards Waconia and Rogers and about five inches in Woodbury. Rain may mix in with the snow along the Wisconsin and Minnesota border. Rochester to Eau Claire will endure a cold rain.

Moderate to occasionally heavy snow (visibility around a quarter mile) is expected through the day. Snow should taper this evening in the Metro, with another one to three inches possible from Anoka to Hayward. Heavy snow will extend from Duluth and along the North Shore through about midnight.

Early reports suggest that icy roadways have resulted in spin outs and accidents, particularly in the more rural areas of central Minnesota. Travel with caution. Get a feel for the road surface and be alert for rapidly changing conditions.

The Storm Prediction Centers forecast for the band of more than eight inches of snow in the next eighteen hours.
CE

Snow picking up in intensity

Posted at 6:40 AM on November 13, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

Since 5am snow has increased in intensity in east central Minnesota. I measured 2.5 inches of accumulation at 635am. Snow flakes were good quality. Heavy wet snow is likely to fall through the morning. Be prepared for slow travel and very slick conditions. Don't follow too close.

Rain was falling from Rochester to Red Wing to Eau Claire.

As bad as advertised

Posted at 9:28 AM on November 13, 2010 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

Just returned from a trip two miles from home. It is extremely dangerous on the roadways. Snow is falling at the rate of more than an inch per hour in Eden Prairie. since 630am I received another four inches of snow, with 6.5 inches total on the deck.
Very heavy wet snow is making it difficult to plow and shovel.

Here is an image of the surface reports. Note as of 9am the circulation center was still in Iowa. The counter clockwise rotation around the low that is moving towards LaCrosse.

Snowfall totals will likely exceed ten inches in some locations.

West Metro on the pivot point

Posted at 11:12 AM on November 13, 2010 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter storms

After watching the radar and satellite imagery for two hours, it appears that the snow pivot point is over Chanhassen. There is a notch of drier air pushing towards the Twin Cities from the southeast, but it may come to a halt as it reaches Lakeville.

This would put a longer duration of moderate snow from about Waconia to Elk River. Expect upwards of a foot of snow in the west metro. Already nine inches has accumulated in Deephaven and Maple Grove and in Eden Prairie I'm thinking another two to three inches are likely from 1130am to 4pm. Lesser amounts near the Wisconsin border toward Hudson.

From the Chanhassen National Weather Service.

Listen for information from MNDOT and local officials regarding travel. I know from the reports I'm hearing, it is extremely treacherous in the west Metro. Stay put.

West Metro: Snow totals approach 1 foot! 2" to 4" more likely

Posted at 2:17 PM on November 13, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Snow, Weekend, Winter storms

The west metro is in the heavy snow "bull's eye" for this storm.

Snow totals are approaching 1 foot now in the west metro. Here are some totals.

Eden Prairie 11"
New Hope 10.1"
Deephaven 10"
Amboy 10"
Forest Lake 10"
Minneapolis (NW side) 9"
Edina 9"
Prior Lake 9"
Bloomington 7.5"
Cambridge 6.5"
St Paul (Highland Park) 7"

A fresh 10" snowfall on the deck at the Huttner weather Lab at noon Saturday.

As expected the heaviest snow totals so far are in the west metro (6"-11"), with lower amounts in the far east metro (3"- 6").

Deck chairs sporting heavy Noevmber snow. Trees snapped under the weight of the snow in Deephaven.

A solid 10" on rainings, fences, trees and everything else.

Radar trends show "pivot point" east of metro:

Twin Cities radar loop this afternoon is showing the pivot point just east of the Twin Cities. This is the center of "spin" or axis around the low...and if it stays east of the metro snow will spin around the west side and keep snow going here. Snow bands will vary in intensity and spin through the metro and eastern Minnesota through tonight.

Snow intentisty will generally be lighter then the bursts of heavy wet flakes we saw this morning, but a few heavy snow bands may rotate through and drop visibility to around 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times.

Surface low tracks west:

At 1:30pm today the surface low pressure center is between Rochester and La Crosse. This is a little farther west than forecast. This may mix in a little rain in the far east and southest metro and along the St. Criox Valley...think Hudson, Afton, Hastings and Red Wing.

Surface plot shows low center spinning between Rochester and La Crosse.
(click for bigger image)

Temps above freezing:

I can tell you that roads in the west metro are VERY slick today. A mix of slush & compacted ice. Crews are out...but travel is very difficult. One thing working in our favor with this storm is that temperatures are just above freezing in most places.

Warm ground may have melted the first inch or two...but intense snowfall rates overnight overcame any surface melting in a hurry.

With lower snowfall rates and temps above freezing, most areas may see another 2" to 4" overnight.

PH

Could have been worse

Posted at 6:30 PM on November 13, 2010 by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Winter storms

We may say on occasion there will be a quick inch or two of snow, but in this storm we picked up a quick six to eight inches. Snow fell as heavily as I've seen in some time; accumulating four inches between 630am and 930am. You know what I'm talking about if you were in the southwest metro.

There are a couple of positives or rarities about this abating storm. 1) There was no cold air instrusion ushered in on a blast of northwest winds. Temperatures late this afternoon were actually milder in northwest Minnesota. 2) The snow was so wet and heavy that twenty mile an hour winds produced no blowing or drifting. 3) As the snow tapered it settled fast with compression along with melting from the relatively warm soil temperatures. 4) If you got your paved driveway shoveled immediately after the heavy snow subsided you were left with a wet surface that you could actually walk and drive on.

Pockets of light snow continue in central Minnesota. Accumulations about the Twin Cities overnight should be an inch or less. Snow in northeast Minnesota could tally another three to four inches by midnight.

Overnight minimum temperatures will drop just below freezing. Sufficient to test your driving skills later tonight and early Sunday.

Nine inches of snow has already compacted to about five inches in my yard. In the microclimate world I can see grass appearing on the south perimeter of the spruce tree.

How'd you like to have this similar event present itself on a weekday morning commute. There really is a silver lining.
CE