Welcome to another warm day in November.
This follows a warm of October (+5.3), a warm summer, a snowless March that was 8.9 degrees above average. Add it all up and what do you get? Possibly one of the 10 warmest years on record in Minnesota.
If you look at temperatures so far this year in the Twin Cities, it appears we're on pace for a top 10 warmest year. Not including November, temperatures are running about +3.3 degrees so far in 2010.
Of course, we still have November and December to go in the books. We're off and running in November, a full 6.3 degrees above average so far through the first 8 days, with at least 2 more significantly above average days on the way. That will put us about 7 degrees above average through the first 10 days of the month....but with much cooler air on the way in the next 1-2 weeks.
There is no way to tell what December will bring, but another above average month could put us in the top 10 warmest years on record for Minnesota looking all the way back to 1891. That's 118 years of data.
Here are the top 5 warmest years on record in the metro: The yearly average temperature for the Twin Cities is 45.2 degrees.
1) 1931 50.9 degrees
2) 1987 49.7 degrees
3) 2006 49.3 degrees
4) 1998 48.8 degrees
5) 2005 48.2 degrees
Chaotic weather pattern starts Wednesday:
Get ready for some big weather changes starting Wednesday in Minnesota.
A potent upper low and it's surface reflection will wind up and bump east into Minnesota by late Wednesday. The day will be breezy, and there may be a narrow band of thunderstorms late in the day sweeping from southwest to northeast.
There appears to be enough instability to kick off a few severe storms late Wednesday. With the relative amount of spin or "helicity" in the atmosphere high, there is even the rare November potential for an isolated tornado or two. Yes...I said tornado. And yes, I know, it's November.
The SPC has some interesting language in Wednesday's severe weather outlook discussion.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE WEAK...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS A NARROW BROKEN LINE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
Pretty remarkable stuff when we should be talking about snow storms in November. But then again. this is the "anything goes" weather year that is 2010!
"Low confidence" forecast:
Forecast models are all over the place when it comes to the late week weather set up. A wave of low pressure sliding up from the south brings a change fo cold rain or snow Friday to areas from the metro south & east. It may evolve into significant snow for parts of Wisconsin Saturday.
A third wave of cold low pressure may bring snow showers to much of Minnesota by Sunday.
Bottom line: It's going to look and feel a lot more like winter around here by the weekend.
In the meantime enjoy temps pushing 70 today in southern Minnesota. The record for the Twin Cities today is 70 degrees. We'll probably fall short in the upper 60s, but it should be a good run!
Posted at 5:32 PM on November 9, 2010
by Paul Huttner
You have to pinch yourself to remember this is November...and winter weather awareness week in Minnesota.
After a near record high of 69 in the metro Tuesday, our delightful spell of Indian summer is about to come to an abrupt end.
Get ready for some big weather changes over the next few days in Minnesota.
Let's break down some of the forecast variables day by day.
Wednesday: Stiff southerly breezes will linger Wednesday as Minnesota enjoys one last mild day ahead of an approaching low pressure wave. After a very mild overnight with lows in the 40s in most areas, temperatures should reach the 60s again in most areas Wednesday afternoon.
Low pressure and a trailing cold front will likely kick off a narrow band of showers and even a few T-Storms Wednesday PM in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Thunder, lighting small hail and gusty wins are possible with some of the stronger storms. There is even enough low level spin, or helicity in the atmosphere to keep an eye out for a brief, isolated, rare November tornado.
The band of bumpy weather may roll into the Twin Cities sometime after dark Wednesday evening.
Thursday looks like a breezy transition to colder weather. Gusty west winds will push temps into the low 50s at best, with 40s in northern Minnesota.
Friday: Friday would fall under the category of what meteorologists call a "low confidence forecast." Forecast models have been all over the place on the track, timing and temperature profile of a low pressure system spinning up toward Minnesota from the south.
One version (today's NAM model) pivots the low back far enough west to bring rain or snow into southeast Minnesota (including the metro) on Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures will be near the critical freezing point in the lowest mile of the atmosphere Friday. That means that there could be rain, snow, or a mix from the metro south and east. There is a possibility of accumulating snow from the metro east and south Friday into Saturday.
Stay tuned as we work through a complicated and changeable forecast over the next few days. And remember...this is the "anything goes" weather year of 2010!