We're leading charmed weather lives in the Upper Midwest these days.
Roses are in full bloom at the Huttner Weather Lab on October 19th.
Our mild October continues the string of warmth that really began in March this year. Temperatures have been significantly warmer than average in Minnesota for 7 of the past 8 months. Only September came in close to average at -0.8°F.
If October ended today, our average monthly temperature of 58.2°F would make this the 2nd warmest October on record in the Twin Cities. Temperatures are running +6.4°F for the month to date.
Our average first 32° reading at Twin Cities Airport is October 7th. So far the coldest temp has been 38° on October 3rd. It looks like it could be another week before the first widespread killing frost in the Twin Cities, a full three weeks later than average.
October 2009 brought cold and snow to Minnesota. It was the 7th snowiest October on record with 2.8" falling at Twin Cities Airport. Last year I was scarping snow off the weather lab deck in October. It's a stark reminder of how fickle October weather can be in Minnesota.
Pattern change ahead:
The weather maps are showing signs of the inevitable plunge into much colder weather by late next week. Temperatures may run 15 to 20 degrees colder, with highs only in the 30s and 40s statewide by Halloween weekend. Trick or Treat weather may feature a distinct chill in the air this year in Minnesota.
With 60s in the forecast for most of this week, I strongly encourage everyone to enjoy this (last?) spell of late season warmth.
The claim that this is the 2nd warmest October on record is quite misleading. Through the first 18 days, the average of 58.2 degrees makes this the 14th warmest October since 1891. The warmest was 1947 (62.7 degrees), or more than 4 degrees warmer than 2010. I'm not a global warming denier--just a careful statistician.