Posted at 6:45 AM on October 28, 2010
by Craig Edwards
Filed under: Flooding
After the sun went down yesterday Mother Nature put in a few extra hours of overtime, delivering gusty winds of over forty miles an hour to portions of the Great Lakes. Today the wind will gust to thirty miles an hour at times creating wind chill readings in the teens this morning. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow for the coldest night of the autumn season over much of the state. The Metro area will final see minimum temperatures fall below freezing.
Exhuberant meteorologists shared comments on Facebook about the intensity of this expansive and record breaking low pressure system. Two centers of circulation merged over Minnesota on Tuesday to spawn a single storm center; Cyclone Minnie formed near Little Falls. The lowest barometric pressure was measured at Big Fork and validated by the State Climate Office. This one is in the record books in a number of ways, from barometric pressure to snowfall and rainfall totals.
Yesterday, Duluth set a record with 4.3 inches of snow for the date. Check out the other records from Duluth.
Check out the details of this storm courtesy of the staff at NWS Duluth.
A record daily rainfall was set at Fargo on Tuesday with nearly 1.25 inches of precipitation. Many tributaries in the Red River Valley are rising beyond bankfall. Flood Warnings have been posted along the Red River. Here's a link to monitor the predicted river levels.
Nearly seven and half inches of rain has fallen since September first at Fargo/Moorhead. This excessive total is more than three and a half inches above normal. Do we dare say that the soil, going into the winter season,is saturated?Hydrologists will be all over this for potential flooding in the spring of 2011.
I'm pleased to share with you that the forecasters from Grand Forks NWS and the hydrologists from the North Central River Forecast Center received the Department of Commerce Silver Medal in a ceremony in Silver Springs, Maryland last week. The prediction of the crest on the Red River of the North at Fargo for March of 2009 was within inches of the measured, historical level.
Looking for the silver lining in all this? Check out the eight to fourteen day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center heading into November. Precipitation for this same period is expected to be below the seasonal normal.
The metro area escaped frost Thursday morning. A frosty start Friday looks like a slam dunk.
Wind and clouds kept surface temperatures just above freezing early Thursday. The mercury bottomed out at 35° early Thursday. That adds one more (albeit chilly) day to the 2010 metro growing season which began on May 9th.
If the first 32 degree reading at Twin Cities Airport occurs Friday morning as forecast, it will tie for the 9th latest 32 degree temperature occurrence in the Twin Cities on record.
Recipe for frost:
Weather conditions look ideal for frost Friday morning. Here's the recipe:
-Daytime temps below 45°F
-Dew points in the 20s.
These conditions allow maximum "radiational cooling" to plunge temperatures below the freezing point in the early morning hours.
Locations that have not yet seen frost in southern Minnesota will see the season's first frost Friday morning. Prepare accordingly.
The weather will mellow over the next week in Minnesota. The warming trend starts Friday as temperatures will recover into the 50s.
Paul's Weekend Forecast:
Friday: Frosty start, fine finish. Filtered sun through a few high clouds. High 53. Wind S-SW 5-15.
Saturday: Mixed sun & clouds. Cool. High 49. Wind NE 5-10.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 50. Wind E 5-10.
Halloween Trick or Treatcast: Clear skies, light winds. Temps in the 40s. A solid 6 on a scale of 1 to 10!
Indian Summer next week?
Forecast models hint at a leaning ridge of high pressure builds in by the middle of next week. This should mean a gradual warming trend with cool nights and increasingly mild days. Temperatures should push the 60 degree mark in southern Minnesota by Wednesday, and that pattern could last into next weekend. That would put temperatures a good 12 degrees above average. Good enough in my book for Indian Summer after our first frost Friday.
Look for another dry, mild and quiet weather pattern by the middle of next week!
First big snow in sight??
It's wayyyy out in the medium range forecast models and could be pure fiction at this point...but the models are hinting at the potential for our first big snow in southern Minnesota the weekend of November 13-14.
As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned.
My storm's bigger than your storm!
Check out this and this from the AMS blog. I guess our October Superbomb has some weather and climate gurus a little jealous. For the record, I don't see a case here for a lower barometer than this week's Minnesota Superstorm...and storms over open ocean don't count!
Tuesday's "Octobomb" winds up over Minnesota.
Then of course there's that old joke about getting 10 meteorologists in a room and getting 13 different forecasts.