Posted at 8:25 AM on October 21, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Fall
Another October morning in the metro, another day without frost.
The temperature bottomed out near 40 degrees in the metro at 5am this morning, above the average of 37 degrees and several degrees above the frost threshold.
That pushes 2010 another day past the October 7th average first 32 degree reading at Twin Cities Airport.
The temp bottomed out BEFORE sunrise today in the metro. This is a bit unusual, as minimum temperatures usually occur just AFTER sunrise on clear calm fall mornings. This morning's wind and a few clouds kept temperatures bouncing around before sunrise today.
It looks like the first "official" frost and 32 degree temp may arrive in the metro by late next week. That would put 2010 in the top 13 latest years for the arrival of the first 32 degree temp in the Twin Cities.
As you can see form the chart above (courtesy Twin Cities NWS) this October is also the driest on record to date. It looks like that will change by early next week.
Pattern change ahead:
Our October weather winning streak continues through Friday with two more dry days in Minnesota. That will run the string to 27 days without measureable rainfall in most of the state.
Look for sun today with highs in the 50s.
More sun and southwest winds return Friday with a shot at 70° for southern Minnesota, and 60s up north.
A low pressure wave will track through Iowa this weekend brining a chance fo scattered showers to southern Minnesota.
A second, and much stronger low, will move in Monday and Tuesday. This second system looks wet, and many areas could see an inch of rain.
Look for much colder weather to follow next week. You may want to speed up those fall chores beofre Saturday.
Enjoy the next 48 hours of fine fall weather!
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has been busy lately reading the seasonal outlook tea leaves. This winter, they may come up cold and white for Minnesota.
NOAA's CPC released the official winter outlook today. The big player this year? La Nina. The cooling ocean temps in the tropical Pacific Ocean statistically favor colder than average winter conditions in the Upper Midwest. It's not a slam dunk, but the dice are loaded for colder than average winters (about 70% of the time) during La Nina years.
The outlook does divide Minnesota into two areas this year. The CPC favors northern Minnesota for above average snowfall and colder than average temperatures. The outlook for the southern half of Minnesota calls for equal chances of above/ near and below average conditions this winter.
The Twin Cities received just 40.7" of snowfall last winter. Average snowfall for the metro is 55.9" for the winter season. My boss at MPR Steve Nelson put me on the spot today asking me how much snow I thought we would get this winter. I told him I though we would get more snow than last year, and probably end up somewhere closer to our average snowfall of 55.9" Let's hope I'm not scraping too much egg off my face next spring!