Updraft: August 31, 2010 Archive

Major Hurricane Earl: (And a slight severe risk for Minnesota)

Posted at 8:45 AM on August 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes, Rainfall, Severe weather

Powerful Hurricane Earl has the attention of the U.S. East Coast.

The powerful Category 4 storm is the season's first major hurricane, and it looks to make a close pass on North Carolina's Outer Banks Thursday. Here are the numbers from NHC.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
900 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

Intensity forecasts for Earl fluctuate between about 135 and 140 mph for the next 36 hours, with a gradual decrease in wind speed after that. Earl will likely still be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane as it brushes the North Carolina coast Thursday.

The latest model trends continue to push Earl westward, a little closer to the Carolina coast Thursday. There is a chance Earl could score a direct hit on the Outer Banks. Even if the center of Earl passes off shore, the storm will still trigger coastal flooding and erosion with pounding waves and storms surge.

Check out the radar loop from Pureto Rico as Earl passes by to the north of the island.

Storm risk again today:

Round one of thunderstorms woke many of us overnight. Lighting and heavy downpours we're the featured fare with the early AM storms.

NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints a swath of 2" to 3" rainfall west of the metro.

There are some impressive rainfall reports from overnight in southwest Minnesota.

Montevideo 2.20"
Granite Falls 3"

Amounts were lighter but significant in the Twin Cities area.

MSP Airport .35"
Huttner Weather Lab (west metro) .45"
Forest Lake .90"

Round #2 should develop this afternoon, but the intensity and location of the storms could be largely cloud dependant.

If the debris clouds from the morning storms breaks, and we get ample sun early this afternoon we could see storms fire near the metro late PM. If the clouds hold a little longer, storms may form east of the Twin Cities and shift the sever weather potential to Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota and Iowa.

Stay tuned for possible watches and warnings late this afternoon.

PH

Close Shave: Will Earl make U.S. landfall?

Posted at 5:17 PM on August 31, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Hurricanes

Hurricane forecasters are sweating this one.

Major Hurricane Earl is making the turn toward the northwest, and headed directly for the Carolina Coast today. The "official" forecast is for Earl to turn north tomorrow and narrowly miss the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The track is so close that any jog to the west in the Earl's track could mean a direct hit on either the Outer Banks, or further up the East Coast toward Nantucket Island.

Earl has undergone an "eyewall replacement cycle" today. That means the eye has temporarily disappeared, but is likely to reform overnight. Earl could emerge as an even stronger storm when the latest eyewall replacement cycle is complete.

Hurricane Earl going through eyewall replacement. Note the dense line of clouds fanning out west of Earl. This is a low level "outflow boundary" generated by Earl. Loop courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog.

Here are the latest stats on Earl from the NHC:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

AMENDED TO UPDATE HURRICANE WATCH AREA

...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

Intensity forecasts keep Earl as a major hurricane for about the next 24 to 36 hours, with some gradual weakening after that as it approaches cooler waters.

Bottom line? The next 24 to 48 hours will be critical to watch for any changes in Earl's track, and to see how an upper level trough moving in from the west will recurve of Earl to the north.

As we say in the news and weather biz....stay tuned.

Temperature Shock Ahead: September chill Friday

You may be wondering what happened to summer by Friday. The strongest cold front of the season will plow through by Friday. After bouts of rain Thursday, temperatures may not climb out of the 60s Friday with a blustery northwest wind.

Friday could be the coolest day since June 13th when the metro reached 67 degrees!

It's going to feel like September out at the Fair Friday. The weather will mellow this weekend, and it looks like we'll warm back through the 70s to near 80 by Labor Day.

PH