Keep an eye on the sky the next 36 hours in the Upper Midwest. Several ingredients are coming together for what could be a significant outbreak of severe weather.
At least two waves of severe (and possible tornadic) storms may rumble across the upper Midwest by Wednesday evening. After a lead batch of mostly non-severe showers and T-Storms today in the eastern Dakotas, a second wave of more potent storms should develop this afternoon in the central Dakotas and come racing east into Minnesota tonight. That wave may form an MCS, or mesoscale convective system that may race east with bow echoes and the potential for damaging winds.
The favored locations for storms Wednesday will shift east, the question is how far. If debris from tonight's MCS hangs over eastern Minnesota tomorrow and the front slides past the Twin Cities, the storms may develop over Wisconsin. If not, they could blow right over the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.
Stay tuned to your favorite severe weather sources through Wednesday for a very changeable forecast scenario.
Major Midwest heat wave next week?
All signs point to the potential for a major Midwest heat wave next week. The Bermuda High, a strong ridge of high pressure looks like it will set up shop over the central USA and amplify starting about next Tuesday.
If the forecast models are right, the central USA could see several days...maybe two weeks of searing heat and humidity. Places like Kansas City, St, Louis, Des Moines and Chicago have the potential to reach 100 degrees.
Minnesota looks to lie on the northern edge of the heat wave. We could see more than a a week of highs well into the 90s, with dew points in the tropical 70s. That's a dangerous level of heat and humidity, and the long duration could become a major news story in the latter half of July.
Get your air conditioner tuned up and get ready for a blast of heat starting next week.
Beautiful Red Wing:
The Huttner Weather Lab had the pleasure of making the trip to beautiful Red Wing last evening for my son's playoff baseball game. Even as a native Minnesotan, I had never made the trip to Red Wing, and I'm glad I did. The town is absolutely lovely with the bluffs and river scenery.
Red Wing is known for Red Wing Shoes and Red Wing pottery among other things.
The drive from the Twin Cities is equally wonderful with hills, open vistas and fertile colorful fields along the way. The landscape near the town of Miesville is particularly beautiful. And the ball park for the Miesville Mudhens is visible as you pass through town.
Oh yes, and my son's 14 year old Minnetonka travelling baseball team won the game 15-4. The whole team played great and our son Luke started the game and was the winning pitcher so congrats to the team on a great performance!
PH (proud baseball dad!)
Posted at 4:55 PM on July 13, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather
There is mixed news as the picture becomes a little clearer looking at severe weather potential through Wednesday. The frontal timing may preclude severe storms in some areas. But the potential for damaging storms still exists in some areas of the Upper Midwest.
Here's the deal, these situations are always complex and this one is no exception. They say timing is everything, and the timing of the approaching cold front will be everything when it comes to where severe weather may occur.
Here's what we think we know, and what we don't know at the Huttner Weather Lab.
What we think we know:
-It looks like we will be storm free in the metro and most of southern and eastern Minnesota this evening. If nothing pops, it should be a great but breezy and increasingly humid summer evening and overnight. Dew points will rise through the 60s in most areas and into the 70s in southwest Minnesota.
-The first real wave of severe storms developed pretty much as expected in eastern North Dakota today. An MCS is evolving and will roll east into northwest Minnesota tonight. If the system persists tonight as they sometimes do... and if it turns right down I-94 following the highest moisture values and instability...it could roll through Alexandria and Brainerd and St. Cloud overnight and possibly survive the trip into the Twin Cities area toward morning.
-The biggest risk for severe weather overnight will run from the Grand Forks and Fargo areas down into northern and central Minnesota. Think Fergus Falls, Wadena, Bemidji, Brainerd and St. Cloud.
-If the complex persists and strengtens overnight it has the potential to become a derecheo event with widspread hail and damaging winds in the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin.
What we don't know yet:
-How long will the overnight convective complex persist? The latest thinking is that is may go strong to possibly severe until after midnight into western and central Minnesota, then weaken a bit as it approaches eastern MN (and the metro?) toward morning.
-How much debris could cover will linger and limit heating tomorrow? The latest thinking is that we'll have some debris clouds around in the morning, and that may limit surface heating in eastern Minnesota.
-Where will the front be early tomorrow PM, and where will the next batch of storms fire? Current thinking is that the front will be right over the Twin Cities area around lunchtime tomorrow. This may mean the when storms do develop tomorrow early PM, they fire right over the Twin Cities...or develop just east of the metro and clobber western Wisconsin.
If there's enough debris around through the morning, the metro COULD escape widespread severe weather. If the sun is out early..look out. Storms (potentially tornadic?) could blow right over the Twin Cities around lunchtime.
Wherever storms do deveop Wednesday, there is sufficent low level wind shear to spawn tornadoes. SPC is monitoring the risk, and may upgrade parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin to a moderate risk for severe weather.
Keep an eye on the sky overnight in northwest and central Minnesota, and in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as we head through the day Wednesday!