If it seems like the first half of June has been soggy, you're right.
13 of 15 days have featured at least a trace of measurable (miserable?) rainfall in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. Monthly rainfall is running about an inch above average in many locations. I guess the silver lining is, we needed this slow, steady rainfall pattern to alleviate drought, and let the ground soak up early June like a sponge.
There are signs a pattern change is on the way. We may not like all the consequences of the coming change, but it will be warmer.
Today may be the last day much of Minnesota is mired in low clouds, fog and temperatures in the 60s and low 70s for a while. The jet stream, which has been streaming right above Minnesota all month, will lift ever so slightly north over the next 7-10 days.
The slight shift north in the jet stream will bring warmer weather, as the bubble of heat trapped to our south oozes north. Highs in the 80s should become the rule here starting Wednesday.
But as the jet lifts north, it may also bring more energy, and stay close enough to generate some big boomers every couple fo days. This could mean a shift to a more thundery and potentially severe weather pattern. We'll have to keep an eye out for occasional sever storms rumbling through, and it looks like our first batch could arrive Thursday.
Expect an unsettled day today with fog and drizzle giving way to a peek of sunshine which could brew up more scattered showers and a thunderstorm this afternoon.
Clearing should finally set in tomorrow. Remember the sun? We may see more of it Wednesday as temperatures makes a run at 80 degrees.
Posted at 6:00 PM on June 15, 2010
by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Severe weather
Rain is fading as it tracks north and east gradually away from Minnesota tonight.
Look for high pressure to bring a sunny, dry, spectacular Wednesday. After the much needed rainfall and a very gloomy 1st half of June, Wednesday may be one of those weather days where "you can please most of the people, most of the time."
Expect plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 80s in southern Minnesota. Highs should reach the very comfortable upper 70s to near 80 in northern Minnesota, except cooler 60s along the North Shore.
The Twin Cities NWS issued tornado warnings this afternoon for eastern Minnesota western Wisconsin. The primary area of concern is generally north and east of the Twin Cities from Lake Mille Lacs to Hinckley and Rice Lake, but there are a few isolated storms moving from southwest to northeast in the metro as well.
The warnings are for "radar indicated" storms...which means no severe weather had been sighted at the time of issuance.
The weather pattern is not conducive to long lived damaging tornadic supercell storms today. But, there is just enough spin to produce possible "cold air funnel" type storms. Cold air funnels are small funnels that rarely touch down, but can do damage if they do.
Stay alert for rapidly changing weather today.
Here are some storm reports as they come in:
DLH: 3 Sw Pine City [Pine Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.10 INCH at 04:58 PM CDT -- 2.1 inches of rain in 1 hour.
DLH: 5 Sw Pine City [Pine Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 03:42 PM CDT -- hail up to quarter size...stripping a few leaves off maple trees.