Updraft: June 15, 2010 Archive

Pattern change: Warmer but still thundery?

Posted at 8:30 AM on June 15, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Rainfall, Severe weather

If it seems like the first half of June has been soggy, you're right.

13 of 15 days have featured at least a trace of measurable (miserable?) rainfall in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. Monthly rainfall is running about an inch above average in many locations. I guess the silver lining is, we needed this slow, steady rainfall pattern to alleviate drought, and let the ground soak up early June like a sponge.

NOAA rainfall analysis shows soaking rain totals for the past 14 days.
(click for bigger images)

There are signs a pattern change is on the way. We may not like all the consequences of the coming change, but it will be warmer.

Today may be the last day much of Minnesota is mired in low clouds, fog and temperatures in the 60s and low 70s for a while. The jet stream, which has been streaming right above Minnesota all month, will lift ever so slightly north over the next 7-10 days.

The slight shift north in the jet stream will bring warmer weather, as the bubble of heat trapped to our south oozes north. Highs in the 80s should become the rule here starting Wednesday.

Forecast modles hinting at a string of 80s ahead.

But as the jet lifts north, it may also bring more energy, and stay close enough to generate some big boomers every couple fo days. This could mean a shift to a more thundery and potentially severe weather pattern. We'll have to keep an eye out for occasional sever storms rumbling through, and it looks like our first batch could arrive Thursday.

SPC shows slight risk for severe storms Thursday.

Expect an unsettled day today with fog and drizzle giving way to a peek of sunshine which could brew up more scattered showers and a thunderstorm this afternoon.

Clearing should finally set in tomorrow. Remember the sun? We may see more of it Wednesday as temperatures makes a run at 80 degrees.

Enjoy!

PH