Updraft: May 19, 2010 Archive

May heat wave?

Posted at 8:52 AM on May 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: Heat

Remember that air conditioner that sat idle for the last 9 months? It may be time to get a tune up.

The medium range forecast models are advertising a building ridge of high pressure in the Great Lakes region by this weekend. There are signs the pattern will bring much warmer weather to Minnesota, and it could last through next week.

CPC 6-10 day outlook highlights above average temperature probability in the Great Lakes.

The magnitude of this may not be the heat wave we expect in mid-summer, but this may get your attention next week. Minnesotans are famous for wishing for warmer weather this time of year, and then thinking twice about it when temperatures hit 90.

Forecast models pushing temps toward 90 by next week.

Forecast models often underestimate developing temperature extremes. There is a component to many models that's tied to climate. That means, they're reluctant to stray too far from what is average at any time of the year. It will be interesting to se if this is the case this time.

Indications are we could hit 90 in the Twin Cities next week. The average high for next week in the metro is 74, so that would put temperatures about 15 degrees above average next week.

Open Gulf: Higher humidity

A persistent southerly flow will send a sticky humid air mass oozing north next week. Dew points have been in the very comfortable 30s and 40s this week. It looks like they will soar into the 60s and even push toward a tropical feeling 70 degrees next week.

The Twin Cities recorded only six 90 degree days last year. The average is about 13 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro. One year ago today the temperature soared to 97 degrees in the Twin Cities, the hottest day last year. The last time we hit 90 was on August 14th.

Our early spring continues to push temperatures well ahead of the calendar averages this year. Get ready for an early dose of summer heat next week. Something tells me it may be a long hot summer in the Upper Midwest this year.

PH