NWS: Flooding almost certain now

Posted at 3:40 PM on February 19, 2010 by Paul Huttner

NOHRSC Snow depth analysis shows heaviest snow in southwest Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Darker blue shades represent anywhere from 18" to over 2 feet of snow cover. Click here to zoom and see a snow depth key.

When you start hearing dates like 1965 and 2001 thrown around by the NWS talking about flooding, things get a little scary. This spring's flood outlook is being compared to those record years for parts of the Red and Minnesota Rivers. Our deep winter snowpack means all signs point to high water in places like Fargo, Grand Forks, Montevideo, Chaska and St. Paul.

Analyses from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center shows anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of water locked up in the snowpack over southwest Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. This area feeds the Minnesota and Red River flood plains. As the snow melts this spring, all that water will run downhill toward Fargo and the Twin Cities.

Snow water equivalent shows 4 to 6 inches of water in the snowpack over southwest Minnesota. Click here for a bigger view with a key.

The NWS is putting flood chances at over 60% for the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers in the Twin Cities. It's more like 80% in Montevideo and nearly 100% along the Red River Valley again this spring.

Several factors will decide how high the floodwaters reach this spring.

-How much more snow will fall in the next month?
-How fast will the warm up be this spring?
-Will we get heavy rain on top of snow pack in the next 6 weeks?

It's going to be a very busy spring at the North Central River Forecast Center in the Chanhassen NWS office this year.

Stay tuned.

PH

Recent Entries

• Saturday storms clearing; Sunday heat on tap
• Wettest May? Weekend severe risk; 97 Sunday? Grays Bay Dam open
• May 2012 Now Ranking Among the Wettest
• Heavy rains drench a large part of Minnesota
• LIVE: Heavy rain and severe weather updates
• Overnight deluge; Severe and tornado risk today
• Storms firing West & North; Better Memorial weekend outlook?
• Stormy Wednesday: Severe risk; Heavy rain totals
• MPR Live in North Minneapolis; Summery today; Storms tomorrow
• Welcome to Omaha: 12th straight warm month; Stormy pattern ahead

Services

• Hourly Newscast
• HD Radio
• iPhone App / Mobile
• E-mail newsletters
• RSS feeds
• Podcasts
• Submit your photos
• Videos
• Weather
• Most e-mailed stories