Updraft Category Archive: 2010 highlights

Clipper brings snow: 2010 warmest on record, again!

Posted at 8:50 AM on January 13, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: 2010 highlights, Snow

Thursday weather headlines:

First "micro clipper" arrives: Light snow is falling around much of Minnesota with this latest system. Expect a coating to an inch in the metro, with the potential for 1" to 2" in the northern half of Minnesota today.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Snow returns to the Weather Lab Thursday morning.(Photo by Paul Huttner. Click to enlarge)

Next Clipper Friday: Clipper #2 is on track for Friday night. This one may be a little stronger...with the potential for 1" to 2" of snow Friday night.

Increasingly arctic next week: The primary medium range forecast model (GFS) has been erratic with timing and magnitude of arctic air next week. The (often) more reliable ECMWF (European Model) is slamming a brief shot cold air into Minnesota next Wednesday. Some trends suggest -20 or colder with -30 possible in parts of the state next Wednesday morning.

I'm not convinced the models have arrived at the correct solution yet regarding the arctic outbreak, but I think it's safe to say next week will be increasingly arctic. Stay tuned.

NOAA: 2010 warmest year on record globally.

The numbers are in from NOAA's NCDC, and 2010 came in as the warmest year in the global surface temperature record.

The Arctic, Canada, western Russia and Africa were among the warmest areas in 2010.(Click to enlarge)

Here's the audio from NPR, and the report from NOAA.

"According to NOAA scientists, 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record.

Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*"

According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.

There are some compelling aspects to the data for 2010.

Facts:

-2010 was the 34th consecutive year above the 20th century global average.

-The last cooler than average year globally was 1976.

-9 of the 10 warmest years globally have occurred since 2001.

-All 12 of the warmest years on record globally have occurred since 1997.

Commentary: These are remarkable numbers. In an "average" or "random" system you might expect that many (even half?) of the past 34 years would have featured colder than average temperatures.

Instead we've seen 34 consecutive "warm" years, and the 12 warmest years on record. This does not appear to be random. 2010 is yet another piece in the climate puzzle that suggests (proves?) that something is forcing the climate toward a warmer bias globally.

You may recall there was what turned out to be accurate evidence in late 2009 to suggest 2010 could be the warmest year on record. Check out my (much maligned) Updraft post here in October 2009 which highlighted the prospects for a warm 2010.

More interesting U.S. highlights for 2010 include:

-The most active tornado season in Minnesota history.

-Los Angeles set the all time hottest temperature on record with 113 degrees.

PH

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Record December chill kept 2010 from being warmest in history

Posted at 5:15 PM on January 5, 2011 by Paul Huttner
Filed under: 2010 highlights, Climate, Climate change

It looks like 2010 will go down in history as the 3rd warmest year on record globally. If not for widespread record cold in December, it would have been the warmest.

Widespread and record cold (and snow) blasted large sections of the globe in December.

-Twin Cities temperatures ran -2.3 degrees in December. A record 33.6" of snowfall buried the metro and much of Minnesota. The early season snow blitz has put the Twin Cities on track for the 3rd snowiest start to winter on record!

-December's cold wave penetrated all the way down to Florida. Many locations in Florida shivered through the coldest December on record since 1890.

From the Tampa NWS:

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
940 PM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...DECEMBER 2010 ENDS UP AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT MOST SITES...

A GOOD PART OF DECEMBER 2010 WAS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 7 TO OVER 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS COLD WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) WHICH WAS HIGHLY NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE MONTH AND DOMINATED THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES PLACED MOST SITES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN."

(Thanks to my colleague and MN Twins Meteorologist Craig Edwards for the data)

-Britain also recoded the coldest December on record and the 5th coldest month ever in recorded history.

From the UK Met Office:

"Record cold December 2010

5 January 2011

- Provisional figures from the Met Office issued today reveal that December 2010 has become the coldest December across the UK since the national series began in 1910.

The mean temperature for the UK has been -1.0 °C, well below the long term average of 4.2 °C. The previous coldest December in the series was 0.1 °C, in 1981."

Thanks to MPR colleague and UM Professor Dr. Mark Seeley for the info. You can read more at Mark's Weather Talk site here.

The World Meteorological Organization reports that 2010 is likely to be the 3rd warmest year on record globally. The just completed decade of the 2000's is also the warmest decade on record.

From the WMO:

"Cancun/Geneva (WMO) - The year 2010 is almost certain to rank in the top 3 warmest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2010 (January-October) is currently estimated at 0.55°C ± 0.11°C1 (0.99°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F. At present, 2010's nominal value is the highest on record, just ahead of 1998 (January-October anomaly +0.53°C) and 2005 (0.52°C)2. The ERA-Interim3 reanalysis data are also indicating that January-October 2010 temperatures are near record levels. The final ranking of 2010 will not become clear until November and December data are analyzed in early 2011. Preliminary operational data from 1-25 November indicate that global temperatures from November 2010 are similar to those observed in November 2005, indicating that global temperatures for 2010 are continuing to track near record levels.

Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, 0.03°C above the 2000-09 average and the highest value ever recorded for a 10-year period. Recent warming has been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia, and parts of the Arctic; the Saharan/Arabian, East African, Central Asian and Greenland/Arctic Canada sub-regions have all had 2001-10 temperatures 1.2 to 1.4°C above the long-term average, and 0.7°C to 0.9°C warmer than any previous decade."

NOAA's NCDC has not yet crunched their complete numbers for 2010, but data through November shows 2010 was the warmest year on record through November. The record chill in December will likely drop the final 2010 tally to 2nd or 3rd.

The bottom line is 2010 was yet another "top 5 warmest year on record" globally, and yet another solid piece of evidence that our planet is not "cooling" as some claim.

PH

MN 2010: 2nd wettest & 9th warmest

Posted at 9:04 AM on January 4, 2011 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)
Filed under: 2010 highlights

More numbers continue to roll in from the wicked weather year of 2010.

It turns out 2010 was the 2nd wettest and 9th warmest year on record in Minnesota.

The excellent number crunchers at the Minnesota Climatology Working Group report statewide average precip of 33.44" in 2010. That's 6.15" above average, and within .50" of the wettest year on record. (33.92" in 1977)

Top Ten Annual Mean Precipitation Records for Minnesota
1895-2010

Rank Value Year
---------------
1 33.92 1977
2 33.44 2010 *
3 33.27 1965
4 33.22 1968
5 32.54 1991
6 32.32 2005
7 32.31 1905
8 31.68 1986
9 31.64 1993
10 31.57 1903

*Preliminary value for December 2010.
All values are from the Midwest Climate Center.

As Mark Seeley reported yesterday in this space, Wabasha had an incredible 49.92" of precip in 2010...nearly 50"! For perspective, 50" is roughly the annual average precipitation for Atlanta.

Warm too:

Even the record snows and a cold December, 2010 was warmer than average in Minnesota. 8 of 12 months featured (much) warmer than average temperatures. The Twin Cities came in about +2.7 degrees and the statewide average of 43.0 degrees was +1.8 degrees in 2010.

That's good enough for the 9th warmest year on record.

Top Ten Annual Mean Temperature Records for Minnesota
1895-2010

Rank Value Year
---------------
1 45.8 1931
2 45.7 1987
3 45.2 1998
4 44.5 2006
5 44.0 1999
6 43.2 2001
7 43.2 1921
8 43.1 2005
9 43.0 2010*
10 42.9 1981

*Preliminary value for December 2010.
All values are from the Midwest Climate Center.

Looking at the data you can see that 6 of the top 10 warmest years on record in Minnesota have all occurred since 1998!

New 30 year averages kick in:

The close of 2010 also marks the start of the new rolling 30 year climate averages. This is going to change the numbers for Minnesota, as the colder decade of the 70s drops off and is replaced by the warmest decade on record during the past 10 years.

The biggest changes in Minnesota's "average" temperatures will come in the winter months, and will be reflected in warmer overnight low temperatures.

Our record snowfall in December 2010 will be included in the new 30 year average data. That may make December the snowiest month of the year on average in the Twin Cities. Of course, our "snowiest" month has changed from March, to January in recent years.

The question is, is this relevant data representing a trend toward more consistent "front loading" of snowfall in winter? There is so much annual variability in snowfall patterns that any month from December through March could be our "snowiest" in any given year.

We all know the weather is rarely "average" in Minnesota...and averages are made up of extremes averaged over time.

Mini Clipper Wednesday?

Our next "shake" of the Minnesota snow globe comes Wednesday as another mini clipper scoots through. Look for another batch of light snow & flurries... with accumulations generally under an inch.

(click for more readable image)

The models are hinting at a more significant snowfall by Sunday & Monday in the northern Plains. The latest model trends keep the bulk of the snowfall south and west of the Twin Cities. Stay tuned on that one...nothing worthy of "headline hype" just yet.

Grand Canyon snow:

Yes, it does snow in Arizona.

Much of Arizona is above 5,000 feet elevation. Check out the 250-meter resolution MODIS true color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image from the UW Madison CIMMS Satellite Blog showing fresh snowfall up to 30" on the Kaibab Plateau last week around the Grand Canyon.

I was fortunate to visit the Grand Canyon a few days before the snowfall and captured these images from the South Rim.

The big picture

Huttner family soaks up the view

Light and shadow play

By the way, if you are ever looking for someone who really knows how to take amazing photographs of the Southwest check out my friend and former Arizona co-anchor Guy Atchley's web site. Guy has an amazing eye, and a love for taking stunning photos of the beautiful people and scenery of the Southwest.

You can see Guy's work here.

PH

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