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Update: Major Storm Still On Track

Posted at 4:31 PM on December 21, 2009 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)

09Dec25wxstory.jpg
Twin Cities NWS weather story highlights potential heavy snow area this week.

This could be the "big one."

All indications are that a major winter storm is still on track to bring heavy snow, ice and major winter storm conditions to the Upper Midwest this week.

Though it is still a little too early in the forecast process to pinpoint specifics, the big picture regarding holiday travel is increasingly clear. Travel in the Upper Midwest will be extremely difficult from Wednesday evening right into Saturday.

The best travel days appear to be Tuesday, the first half of Wednesday, and Sunday.

Here are some updated trends this afternoon.

-Winter Storm Watches have been posted form much of southern Minnesota and surrounding areas from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon.

-Forecast models are clustering around a surface low track from near Dallas Wednesday evening, to just east of Kansas City early Friday, then crawling slowly toward the La Crosse area by early Saturday. This is a favored track for heavy snowfall in the metro.

SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f087.jpg
SREF model ensemble 12 hour snowfall paints heavy snow for southern Minnesota on Christmas Eve. Additional snowfall may accumulate into Saturday.

-It appears snow and ice will begin in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa Tuesday. Snow will likely begin in the Twin Cities by late afternoon or just after dark Wednesday.

-The slow moving nature of the storm could produce 48 to 60 hours of nearly continuous snowfall. Snow may not end in the Twin Cities until noon Saturday.

-The latest model trends bring the surface and upper low far enough west to wrap in some warmer air into Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. This could mean a mix of freezing rain and sleet, which would reduce snowfall totals there, but still create hazardous driving conditions.

-As for snowfall totals, it's too early to forecast snowfall amounts for any one area until the track and intensity of the storm become a little more clear. It's reasonable to suggest though, that the long duration, deep moisture and intensity of this storm may produce prolific snowfall totals of 12" to 18"+. Some totals over 20" are not out of the question somewhere in southern Minnesota, and maybe in the Twin Cities.

I'll put out a specific forecast for snowfall totals probably late Tuesday or early Wednesday. In the mean time the effect is the same. If you can travel Tuesday or early Wednesday, and on Sunday, go for it. If you're fortunate enough to just sit inside and watch it snow... Hallelujah!

Here are some links to monitor the developing storm:

-Twin Cities NWS
-Sioux Falls NWS
-Des Moines NWS
-La Crosse NWS
-Duluth NWS
-SREF model ensembles
-Latest Midwest surface map
-Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion
-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

Comments (6)

Oh Dear God. This doesn't look good.

Posted by Kassie | December 21, 2009 4:54 PM

With the shortened holiday hours I better go and stock up on water and baked beans now!

Posted by Chaz | December 21, 2009 5:59 PM

Paul,

One of your links is to a midwest surface map. i was wondering if you could do a post some time on the different details of a surface map and how to read them. Thanks and happy holidays!

Posted by Scott | December 21, 2009 11:12 PM

So leaving St. Cloud at 4 pm on Christmas Eve and headed for Chatfield (South of Rochester on 52) is sounding like the worst idea ever, am I right?

Posted by Marty | December 22, 2009 7:55 AM

This looks fabulous! Love, love the winter storm and snow, but I write from Duluth where we welcome the snow and winter (or why would we live here?!). However, I'm alarmed by the lack of snow that appears to be coming north to Duluth/North Shore on the map above -- looks like we're barely in the path of the storm. Is that true...is it the bulk of snow staying farther south again this time?

Please. Tell me it isn't so, Paul.

Posted by Sally | December 22, 2009 8:39 AM

Paul,

One of your links is to a midwest surface map. i was wondering if you could do a post some time on the different details of a surface map and how to read them. Thanks and happy holidays!

Posted by Scott | December 21, 2009 11:12 PM

Hi Scott: Good point...here's a link.

PH

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/stationplot_printer.html


So leaving St. Cloud at 4 pm on Christmas Eve and headed for Chatfield (South of Rochester on 52) is sounding like the worst idea ever, am I right?

Posted by Marty | December 22, 2009 7:55 AM


Hi Marty: Maybe if you drive an M1 Tank! Seriously, it will be tough sldeeing.

This looks fabulous! Love, love the winter storm and snow, but I write from Duluth where we welcome the snow and winter (or why would we live here?!). However, I'm alarmed by the lack of snow that appears to be coming north to Duluth/North Shore on the map above -- looks like we're barely in the path of the storm. Is that true...is it the bulk of snow staying farther south again this time?

Please. Tell me it isn't so, Paul.

Posted by Sally | December 22, 2009 8:39 AM

Sally: Fear not...I think Duluth and the Shore may still get 6"- 8" plus. Cobb is cranking out at least that much.

PH

Posted by Paul Huttner | December 22, 2009 8:50 AM

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