Updraft: December 23, 2009 Archive

Christmas Mega Storm 2009: Right on track

Posted at 12:01 AM on December 23, 2009 by Paul Huttner (4 Comments)

Twin Cities NWS highlights heaviest snow and ice areas.

It appears our major Christmas storm is still on track for heavy snow. The only remaining question appears to be: How much?

Update 12:01 am Wednesday:

The evening model runs are brining warmer air and the rain/ice/snow transition zone very close to the Twin Cities on Christmas Eve. This could produce a mix of sleet and freezing rain before things change back to all snow Christmas Day.

The result is the same, a travel mess. But it could reduce storm total snowfall amounts accordingly spending on how much of the precip falls as sleet of freezing rain. It still looks like over a foot of snow is likely in the metro. Areas that see all snow still look to produce 12" to 18"+ with some possible totals over 20" by Sunday.

Updates on Morning Edition at 6:45, 7:45 and 8:45.

PH

The latest model runs continue the trend of bringing a deepening, slow moving system to the Upper Midwest from Wednesday night into early Saturday. Travel may already be slick early Wednesday to the south in places like Omaha and Des Moines.

Here are some of the latest model and forecast trends.

-The big picture still brings snow and difficult travel conditions to the entire region Wednesday evening into early Saturday.

-There may be freezing rain and ice east and southeast of the Twin Cities from Eau Claire to Rochester and La Crosse into eastern Iowa and much of Wisconsin.

-As the storm moves closer and gains strength, the heaviest snowfall rates may occur between 6pm Christmas Eve and midnight Christmas night. (Saturday morning) Snowfall rates of one half to 1 inch per hour may occur during this time.

-It still appears that the long duration of 48 to 60 hours of snowfall combined with the deep moisture and intensity may produce widespread snowfall totals of 12" to 18"+

-Some forecast models are cranking out over 2" of liquid for this storm. That can translate into over 20" of some for some areas.

Latest Cobb technique snowfall forecast cranks out a possible 20" for the metro.

The bottom line is, regardless of eventual snowfall totals, travel will be difficult to impossible in much of Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, the eastern Dakotas and Wisconsin from Wednesday evening into Saturday.

I am finalizing snow predictions for the metro pending tonight's model runs. Here's a teaser...if the storm stays on track we could break records. This could be one of the biggest snow storms for the Twin Cities in years.

Stay tuned, and travel safely!

PH

(4 Comments)

Christmas Mega Storm 2009: Here it comes

Posted at 7:44 AM on December 23, 2009 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)

Twin Cities NWS painting heavy snowfall and ice potential through Saturday.

This could be the biggest snowstorm in at least 10 years for many parts of Minnesota.

The major winter storm is moving into Minnesota late today and tonight. If you have travel plans within Minnesota, it will be best to arrive at your destination by 9pm tonight.

Here are the latest forecast trends and snowfall amounts with the storm.

-The big picture is remarkably consistent, as it has been all week. Expect snow in most of Minnesota, mixing with sleet and ice in the southeast quarter of the state, from tonight into Saturday.

-It appears precip will remain all snow during the entire storm north and west of the Twin Cities.

-Prolonged ice storm conditions may occur Thursday for southeast Minnesota, including Rochester and Winona.

-The Twin Cities should see snow beginning this evening. The snow may change to sleet and ice Christmas Eve, before changing back to all snow Christmas Day.

-The big, slow moving low will stall through Saturday just southeast of Minnesota. This will produce a long duration snow event of 48 to 60 hours for many areas.

-It appears the heaviest snow will fall in a band along 40 miles either side of Highway 23 in Minnesota. This includes Marshall, Redwood Falls, Willmar, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Hinckley, and Duluth. These areas could see 15" to 20"+ by Sunday, with some totals approaching 30" possible.

-From Mankato to the Twin Cities, a mix of freezing rain on Christmas Eve could reduce snow amounts slightly. Anywhere from 12" to 18"+ is likely in the Twin Cities by Sunday. If the precip remains all snow in the metro, there could be over 20" in some areas, especially in the west and northwest metro. In areas that see several hours of sleet and freezing rain on Christmas Eve, snowfall totals cloud be as little as 7 inches. This is most likely in the east metro.

Overnight Cobb output suggests a potentially lower snow total for Twin Cities Airport of near 8 inches. This reflects the change to freezing rain on Christmas Eve.

-Look for a possible significant ice storm in southeast Minnesota, along with 6" to 12" of heavy wet snow by Sunday.

This storm may set both daily and storm snowfall records for many areas of the state. If we get 16" in the metro, it will equal the biggest single storm snowfall in over 10 years. We recieved 16" in March of 1999.

The bottom line is regardless of eventual snowfall totals, travel conditions will be difficult to impossable in much of Minnesota over the next several days. Hopefully you can arrive at your holiday destination and just enjoy the snow. This should be a great holiday for kids of all ages who love playing in and looking at big snow.

Here are some links to keep track of updated weather conditions today.

Travel safe and have a great Holiday!

-Twin Cities NWS storm page
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Sioux Falls NWS
-La Crosse NWS-Des Moines NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Grand Forks NWS
-Latest Midwest surface map
-Cobb snowfall output for Twin Cities MSP airport
-Twin Cities Christmas snowfall records
-Top 11 all-time Twin Cities snowfall records

PH

(6 Comments)

Christmas storm update

Posted at 10:31 AM on December 23, 2009 by Steve Mullis (6 Comments)

Some story updates from MPR's Madeleine Baran.

This could be the biggest snowstorm in at least 10 years for many parts of Minnesota.

The major winter storm is moving into Minnesota late today and tonight. If you have travel plans within Minnesota, it will be best to arrive at your destination by 9 p.m. tonight. A winter storm warning is in effect for the Twin Cities from 9 p.m. tonight to 6 a.m. Saturday.

Here are the latest forecast trends and snowfall amounts with the storm.

- The big picture is remarkably consistent, as it has been all week. Expect snow in most of Minnesota, mixing with sleet and ice in the southeast quarter of the state, from tonight into Saturday.

- It appears precipitation will remain all snow during the entire storm north and west of the Twin Cities.

- Prolonged ice storm conditions may occur Thursday for southeast Minnesota, including Rochester and Winona.

- The Twin Cities should see snow beginning this evening. The snow may change to sleet and ice Christmas Eve, before changing back to all snow Christmas Day.

- The big, slow moving low will stall through Saturday just southeast of Minnesota. This will produce a long duration snow event of 48 to 60 hours for many areas.

- It appears the heaviest snow will fall in a band along 40 miles either side of Highway 23 in Minnesota. This includes Marshall, Redwood Falls, Willmar, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Hinckley, and Duluth. These areas could see 15" to 20"+ by Sunday, with some totals approaching 30" possible.

- From Mankato to the Twin Cities, a mix of freezing rain on Christmas Eve could reduce snow amounts slightly. Anywhere from 12" to 18"+ is likely in the Twin Cities by Sunday. If the precip remains all snow in the metro, there could be over 20" in some areas, especially in the west and northwest metro. In areas that see several hours of sleet and freezing rain on Christmas Eve, snowfall totals cloud be as little as 7 inches. This is most likely in the east metro.

Overnight Cobb output suggests a potentially lower snow total for Twin Cities Airport of near 8 inches. This reflects the change to freezing rain on Christmas Eve.

- Look for a possible significant ice storm in southeast Minnesota, along with 6" to 12" of heavy wet snow by Sunday.

This storm may set both daily and storm snowfall records for many areas of the state. If we get 16" in the metro, it will equal the biggest single storm snowfall in over 10 years. We received 16" in March of 1999.

The storm is unlikely to break the record for the Twin Cities largest snowfall - the "Halloween Blizzard" in November of 1991. That storm dumped 28.4" of snow in the metro area.

The bottom line is regardless of eventual snowfall totals, travel conditions will be difficult to impossible in much of Minnesota over the next several days. Hopefully you can arrive at your holiday destination and just enjoy the snow. This should be a great holiday for kids of all ages who love playing in and looking at big snow.

Here are some links to keep track of updated weather conditions today.

Travel safe and have a great Holiday!

- Twin Cities NWS storm page
- Twin Cities radar loop
- Sioux Falls NWS
- La Crosse NWS
- Duluth NWS
- Grand Forks NWS
- Latest Midwest surface map
- Cobb snowfall output for Twin Cities MSP airport
- Twin Cities Christmas snowfall records
- Top 11 all-time Twin Cities snowfall records

(6 Comments)

Past Minn. storm comparisons

Posted at 12:30 PM on December 23, 2009 by Steve Mullis (12 Comments)

Jaime B in the comments asked: "... How is this storm different from the previous big storm we had earlier this year?

The storm we had earlier this month, once all was said and done, dropped about 10 to 13 inches in Rochester and about 8 inches in the Twin Cities, according to the National Weather Service.

Current projections are saying that this storm could bring anywhere from 12 to 18+ inches in the Twin Cities. Without being too hyperbolic I would say that this storm may be a bit more severe, but nothing Minnesotans can't handle.

In comparison, here are the top 11 All-Time Snowfalls for the Twin Cities (1891-2006):

1. 28.4 inches: October 31 - November 3, 1991 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: November 29 - December 1, 1985
3. 20.0 inches: January 22 - January 23, 1982
4. 17.4 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1982
5. 16.8 inches: November 11 - November 12, 1940 (Armistice Day)
6. 16.7 inches: March 3 - March 4, 1985
7. 16.7 inches: March 11 - March 14, 1940
8. 16.5 inches: December 27 - December 28, 1982
9. 16.0 inches: January 20 - January 21, 1917
10. 16.0 inches: March 8 - March 9, 1999
11. 14.7 inches: March 31, 1985

So how does this storm compare? Well it looks poised to break some records.

Two questions to the weather-watching crowd:

What are you doing to prepare for the storm?

and...

What advice would you give to those that might be experiencing their first Minnesota winter storm?

(12 Comments)

Weather links and resources

Posted at 3:08 PM on December 23, 2009 by Julia Schrenkler (3 Comments)

While official meteorologists advise residents to be prepared for this storm, as MPR's Interactive Producer I believe some of that preparation can come in the form of online reference tools and opportunities. Here are a few that MPR supports, and we'd love to see others you'd recommend in the comments.

* Watch the warning buttons go from a pleasant blue to warning!warning! red on MPR's Weather page. The location list covers various parts of Minnesota for quick contrast/compare storm severity at a glance.

* Well naturally, you'll want to be here. Updraft is MPR's Weather blog, and we'll keep posting a mix of fresh updates, forecasts from our meteorologists and just generally useful entries.

* MPR News is on Twitter and Facebook to communicate all news, but with this storm being a big story you're bound to get relevent updates.

* Get advice from other citizens online. Earlier on Updraft we asked what you were doing to prepare for the storm and there are some helpful replies. Common sense for car travel is outlined in this article, part of our online group about Minnesota Life.

* Residents of the Twin Cities can get forecasts via mobile phone each weekday morning. Text the word WEATHER to 677677 to get started. Standard texting rates apply.

* You can play with the media storm coverage by playing Sningo. This card (click to open in full size) is courtesy Bob Collins of News Cut fame:

While the the game originated for a previous storm, it still works. Let me know how it turns out!

* Finally, you can cover the weather. What should we know about the storm? Send us your own weather reports.

(3 Comments)

Waiting is about over

Posted at 2:43 PM on December 23, 2009 by Craig Edwards

The well advertised storm that has created a buzz from coast to coast, continues to take aim at the upper Midwest. This monstor storm is about ready show its face in Minnesota.

Moisture is encroaching on southern Minnesota at mid afternoon. Heavy snow is likely to break out along the Minnesota River Valley after dusk and reach the Twin Cities around 9pm.

One of the challenges in forecasting snow amounts is the potential for enough warm air to intrude at low levels to mix the snow with sleet and freezing rain or drizzle. Paul has been watching the vertical profile model data and has mentioned the chance of mixed precipitation mainly from St. Paul east into the Eau Claire area.

Profile for Minneapolis International Airport - click on image. The vertical profile is only sensed twice a day, at 5am and 5pm. The computer models then crunch this data and give us hourly integration of moisture, temperature, winds and pressure from the surface to about thirty thousand feet,

The Winter Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning for a part of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

We are watching the track of this low, that will combine with another system dropping through Alberta to create one slow moving storm that should nearly stall over Iowa.

Since the center of the inland cyclone will be relatively close to the Twin Cities, the strongest winds from the pressure gradient will be in western and northen Minnesota through Christmas Eve.

Track of the center of the lowest pressure of this large storm.

We believe that there will be around 4 to 5 inches of snow overnight in the Twin Cities, followed by a little lull on Thursday morning into the afternoon. Heavy accumulations kick in again on Christmas Eve into Christmas.

Hunker down. This one has all the makings of a show stopper. To a meteorologist this is like being in the Super Bowl.
CE

Live chat about the weather on Thursday

Posted at 8:00 PM on December 23, 2009 by Steve Mullis

You've heard about the snow storm making its way through our area on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. On Thursday, MPR's Midday program will feature a discussion on the storm with meteorologist Mark Seeley.

But MPR thinks this storm is big enough to open up a second channel for discussion. Not only will we hold a radio discussion, we'll also have one online. We will hold what we call a "Virtual Forum" on the storm. We'll ask what is happening out there. But we also want to hear how this storm compares with others, how it affects transportation and public safety, how it impacts business.

And we want weather watchers to join in on the panel. Are you interested? Then please click this link and fill out a brief survey on the topic. And please consider saying yes to attending our "virtual forum" on Thursday at 11 a.m. All you would need is to be at a computer to participate. Your discussion will not only get viewed on our Web site, but the conversation will be referenced during MPR's Midday program.

Right now, we've got a good group of weather watchers from around the state (Rochester, Sartell, Duluth, Cook, the Twin Cities). We also have folks who can talk about how emergency services handle a winter storm, and how people ought to care for themselves during that storm.

Curtain going up

Posted at 5:06 PM on December 23, 2009 by Craig Edwards (3 Comments)

As the curtain goes up on this mega-storm, the snow will fall for a long run. We expect snow to last through Saturday, occasionally heavy with blowing and drifting. While the intensity of snowfall is likely to diminish during Saturday, strong winds will result in blowing and drifting. A Blizzard Warning is in effect fo Duluth/Superior.

It appears that the final outcome, when all is said and done, will not have been oversold. This has all the makings of an historical event.

Graphical snowfall expectations as seen for our region from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

Meteorologists will now turn our attention to tracking changes in pressure and surface weather conditions as snow begins in earnest this evening. We will also be looking for any intrusion of slightly warmer air that could mix some freezing rain and sleet in with the snow from southeast Minnesota to west central Wisconsin.

Track the pressure pattern and surface weather in the central part of the Nation from the College of Dupage

This has the potential to be the heaviest statewide snow since the Halloween Blizzard of 1991.

Hopefully the advanced warning on this snow storm has found you well prepared to endure the weather woes of the next couple of days.
CE

(3 Comments)

Watching the radar

Posted at 8:17 PM on December 23, 2009 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)

Eyes have turned toward the radar imagery as the snow has begun in earnest in southern Minnesota. Here is a great link to monitor the movement and intensity of precipitation.
Enhanced high resolution radar centered on Minnesota

You may see some bright banding that will show up as vivid yellow. This is where the radar beam is striking sleet or melting snow that has greater reflectivity. Usually, just north of this region is where heavy snow may be occurring.

If you animate the image you will see the north and northwest movement as the circulation to our south intensifies.

(1 Comments)